Does Experience Matter?

Joe Klein writes:

There have been six elections in which control of the presidency has switched parties during the television age. In five of those six, starting with John F. Kennedy's victory over Richard Nixon in 1960, the less experienced candidate won. The other four were: Jimmy Carter over Gerald Ford in 1976, Ronald Reagan over Carter in 1980, Bill Clinton over Bush the Elder in 1992, Bush the Younger over Al Gore in 2000. The one exception to the rule was a toss-up: Nixon and Hubert Humphrey had similar levels of experience in 1968.

I'm not a huge believer in historical precedent, but that's fairly interesting. The problem, at least as I see it, is that all those candidates save George W. Bush were running against incumbents. And Bush was running against an eight-year vice-president. And he lost the vote. So the question of how important experience is when Americans want change versus how important experience is when they're tired of a particular administration remains fairly open.