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December 08, 2007

There Are Some Things In This Life That Never Change

by Nicholas Beaudrot of Electoral Math | Crossposted to Cogitamus

It's fitting that our time with Ezra comes to an end right before a special election for the US House in Ohio. Just over two years ago, in my second weekend stint at Ezra's, I produced a nice post-game wrap-up of Paul Hackett's special election in OH-2. Here we are again. I really should have done this earlier, but I didn't pay much attention to the OH-5 race given the heavy Republican tilt in the CQ district ratings. But this race is definitely winnable.


It's true that Bush won this district by a big margin in 2004, and that Weirauch only got 43% against the previous incumbent. But since 2004, the district has been the fastest blue-trending district in Ohio, which has been one of the most blue-trending states in the country. The voters in the Ohio 5th have really soured on Bushism.

Though Bush won the district with something like 61% of the vote, Sherrod Brown (D) fought Mike DeWine (R) to a near 50-50 draw, losing by less than two thousand votes out of a quarter million If you believe that the Brown-DeWine contest was essentially a generic D versus generic R contest, then Weirauch's chances look pretty good. So there is real reason to hope for a win on Tuesday. Turnout will be key, but keep your finger crossed.

December 8, 2007 | Permalink


Does anybody know anything about Robin Weirauch's positions? There's practically nothing about them on her campaign website. It appears clear that she is trying to run as a generic D, and as someone who's been painfully educated over the last year that electing more Democrats doesn't mean doing shit about, say, the war in Iraq (as we're about to learn yet again), I have to wonder why I should care what happens to her.

Posted by: Antid Oto | Dec 8, 2007 1:35:32 PM

If people like Kos are pumping her up, I imagine she has to be pretty good(I sure hope).

Posted by: Joe Klein's conscience | Dec 8, 2007 2:39:45 PM

Kos just plays to win, it doesn't tell you anything.

I assume she'd be a generic Midwest populist D. Pro-gun, fair trade, will vote for the Dems budget provided it only soaks the rich, maybe a vote for immigration (though it may be tough).

Posted by: Nicholas Beaudrot | Dec 8, 2007 3:04:15 PM

Hey Nicholas, do you do requests? I'd love to see some numbers geekery run on the Senate race in Oklahoma. Conventional wisdom is that Inhofe's Dem opponent, Andrew Rice, is a long shot.

I interview Rice last week, and damn -- he's bright, articulate, genuinely progressive ... not to mention a young, handsome family man who got into politics after his brother was killed in 9/11. It's hard to think of who'd have a *better* shot.

But anyway, that's all qualitative. Got any numbers mojo you want to throw at it?

Posted by: David Roberts | Dec 8, 2007 4:31:46 PM

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