Think Big: Code Veronica

by Nicholas Beaudrot of Electoral Math

The Great Orange Satan is too charitable to Senate GOP "moderates" when he says "We don't need 60". Unless there's a fear of defeat in the next election, the GOP is going to fight tooth and claw to defeat any sort of progress on the Democratic agenda. The cloture motion for the Employee Free Choice Act got one Republican vote (Arlen Specter). While lots of Republicans are supporting CHIP expansion, and Ron Wyden is at least getting people like Bob Bennett and Judd Gregg to listen to health care proposals, they'll still find reasons to vote against them when the time comes. The only way to change this dynamic is to force more GOP Senators to fear for their reelection, and other than Jim Bunning, I'm not sure who's really that worried.

As for individual races, the past few weeks have been something of a mixed bag:

• Mike Fahey is out in Nebraska, though as the Big City Mayor he would have had a rough time against a popular governor. Without Kerrey or Fahey in the race, letting Kleeb run for House rather than Senate might not be a bad idea.
   
• Kay Hagan is in in North Carolina. Based on the little I've been able to read about her, Hagan is a superb fundraiser and represents a moderate district in the State Senate.
   
• Tom Udall is in in New Mexico, which is nice both because he's got better name recognition than the other candidates, and because Marty Chavez sucks.
• In Kentucky, there's a bit of a movement to get Crit Luallen to challenge McConnell. I don't know enough about the viability of the various possibilities in Kentucky, but there several possibilities, which is definitely a good position to be in. And the rants from Draft Forgy keep on coming.
• The DSCC gives Begich (D-AK) the 'hard sell' to challenge Ted Stevens. He has plenty of time to mull it over, look at the Presidential race, etc., with Alaska's June 2008 filing deadline and low advertising costs.
• Lindsay Graham (R-SC) has a primary challenger, though I don't see how the Ds might capitalize, even with John Edwards on the ticket (the only statewide elected is the School Superintendent, and he won a squeaker).

At the moment, I count vaguely credible challengers considering a contest in every seat except the two Wyoming seats, Nebraska, Mississippi, Georgia, and South Carolina. Realistically, getting a win in Idaho, Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma, or Kansas would require really catching lightning in a bottle. That still means there's a puncher's chance at nine seats. Not bad, eleven months away from election day.