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November 15, 2007
Evangelicals and 2008
This LA Times article on the increasing political exhaustion within the evangelical community is potentially important stuff. The piece doesn't have much in the way of hard data, so it's unclear if its conclusions will hold as we barrel towards the general election, but it seems intuitively correct. Save for Huckabee, there's simply no one on the Republican side who can claim the natural affinity with the Religious Right that George W. Bush. Giuliani can pull Robertson's endorsement, of course, and Romney can line up his leaders, and Fred Thompson can profess his faith, but these elections are won on the margins, and that's where you'll see evangelical turnout drop-off. The segment of that voting population that's simply Republican will still show up, but the fraction who's voting evangelical won't prove so reliable.
Which is why I think you should expect Huckabee on the bottom of just about anyone's ticket, and assume that he'll be used to go on a tour of churches nationwide. He really does know how to speak the language. My hunch is that, as the Republicans grow more desperate, we're going to see a vice-presidential nominee who's little more than an official liaison to the religious community.
November 15, 2007 | Permalink
Comments
I sure do hope the evangelicals are exhausted, divided, digusted (with the GOP record), and demoralized. LOL
Huck probably is the best VP for the GOP, but that he'd be the VP for Religious Ass Kissing is just another reason why that for the good of the nation's destiny, defeating any GOP candidate is crucial. Whether it is Romney/Huck or Giuliani/Huck, the head of ticket will determine how the nation votes - and I doubt Huck will make a difference in the evangelical attitudes toward the Pres. candidate.
Posted by: JimPortlandOR | Nov 15, 2007 4:47:49 PM
I tend to agree with jim - Giuliani/Huck, even Romney/Huck... it's hard to see either as a way of improving Evangelical votes, since it mostly puts Huckabee in the position of defending things about the candidate at the top of the ticket that were the problem to begin with. If Huckabee can't win a state - and I'd guess he can't - then he seems in a weak position to leverage himself onto a tciket, and I think Romney and Giuliani are smart enough to know that they need a running mate who broadens their appeal, not narrows it. If Giuliani or Romney succeed at getting the nomination, one thing their victories will say is that the Evangelical vote is less important in overall GOP calculus. That being the case, a calculated appeal to that group in a VP pick seems backwards, not forward looking.
Posted by: weboy | Nov 15, 2007 5:08:20 PM
Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois, the party's two presidential front-runners, discuss their faith openly and often, a notable contrast with past Democratic hopefuls.
Well, that's complete crap. So is the rest of the article, really.
The megachurch pastors they cite for this article have never been all that active in politics. Their existence has no bearing at all on whether Evangelicals are more or less involved in Presidential politics than has been the case.
Posted by: Stephen | Nov 15, 2007 5:49:57 PM
Having Huckabee at the bottom of a Giuliani or Romney ticket just gives the Democratic VP a ton of great questions to ask Huckabee in the VP debate about supporting the top of the GOP ticket. It may be better than the alternative, but it could blow up.
Posted by: NBarnes | Nov 15, 2007 6:08:08 PM
Other than Eagleton, what VP nominee has significantly altered a race? Generally speaking, doesn't whatever help a VP can give with a particular voting bloc get overshadowed by larger issues?
It's way too early to discuss fatigue among evangelicals. Just because they can't get exercised about a pathetic slate of candidates during the primaries doesn't mean they won't be influential during the general election.
They still know that if they have influence then it's with the Republicans. And it could be gamesmanship on their part. If they sit out the primaries and the Republicans genuinely fear a loss, they may court the evangelical vote harder than ever.
Posted by: Andrew | Nov 15, 2007 6:46:50 PM
VP picks never influence the race, but Huckabee could - I picture lots and lots of discussion of one Wayne Dumond that could derail the GOP campaign.
Posted by: Jason C. | Nov 15, 2007 7:14:22 PM
an "official liaison to the religious community" is a hell of lot better than a shill for the military industrial complex...The repubs may be improving
Posted by: skelly | Nov 15, 2007 9:17:20 PM
好秘书 中国呼吸网 肿瘤网 工作总结reached its peak of decadence, imperialism, and corruption. By appealing to those worst excesses of the American psyche, Giuliani will get elected, and blow up the world, thus wiping our unsalvageable civilization from
Posted by: fasdf | Nov 16, 2007 4:29:44 AM
Wasn't this the plot narrative of Alan Alda's GOP campaign at the end of West Wing? Except that Alan Alda's character was a good guy, and Giuliani is batshit crazy. But still.
Posted by: NCProsecutor | Nov 16, 2007 10:42:37 AM
...the increasing political exhaustion within the evangelical community is potentially important stuff.
That is a very nice turn of phrase.
I have seen exactly that as phenomenon right here
in our little hinter-land community.
Of course, this particular evangelical communion has never been mean-spirited.
Gives 'em a leg up. I suppose.
Posted by: has_te | Nov 16, 2007 1:45:08 PM
In contrast to the talk of an evangelical third party, I have always felt that the real effect of Giuliani/Romney etc. will be to keep evangelicals at home in November which works for me. As other wiser folks have said up thread, Huckabee as VP will do little to counter this development.
Posted by: Col Bat Guano | Nov 16, 2007 3:55:26 PM
Giuliani-Santorum 08. I've been saying it for months.
Posted by: Tony V | Nov 17, 2007 2:34:31 PM
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