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May 04, 2007

Too Many Republicans

Really, where do they get them all?

Repub Debate

Meanwhile, I didn't see the debate, but everyone is telling me that Giuliani lost. Everyone except the snap polls, which say that Giuliani won. Now, early presidential primary debates are a textbook case of a situation where elite opinion holds outsized sway, but still, the difference is stark. But judge for yourself: MSNBC has highlights.

May 4, 2007 | Permalink

Comments

Early debate snap polls track very closely with pre-debate preference polls. Hence why Hillary Clinton won snap polls for the Dem debate and Giuliani won snap polls for the GOP debate.

Posted by: Petey | May 4, 2007 9:54:57 AM

The snap poll was for California.

Posted by: Clark | May 4, 2007 10:17:06 AM

Snap peas are yummier than snap polls.

Posted by: Petey | May 4, 2007 11:23:32 AM

Wow. Looking into the guts of that snap poll is really weird. Giuliani won according to 33% of Republican viewers, 34% of Democrats, and only 19% of independents? I can't really make sense of that.

Given that primary swing voters, like bloggers, are more likely to be activists, I'd put more emphasis on the blog reaction here than I would on the blog reaction in a general election debate.

As Clark says, the snap poll was for California. Here's the most recent California GOP primary polling results I could find (from January). They look sort of like this poll.

Posted by: Neil the Ethical Werewolf | May 4, 2007 11:43:28 AM

I think the confounding thing for the Republican elite is that I think as we see the coalition break down, the DC pundits and such are losing their connections to rank and file. The rank and file is angrier and less easy to predict right now, I think. And I think years of seeling them pure "war on terror" nonsense - the sense that there's a terrorist under every bed, in Iraq, if not here - is leading them to anyone who placates that fear, and that's certainly true of the Mayor of 9/11. I think Democrats can only pray that it is Giuliani, because he is so beatable. I think the pundits want it to be Romney, in an even trickier triangulation of winning blue state governor who can appear moderate but is a stalking horse for their conservative ideals. I think Romney is neither as attractive to moderate Dems nor as conservative as they think, but he'd certainly owe conservatives if he won. But I think what was most interesting was how weirdly off point much of the debate - what I saw, anyway, flipping back between Ugly Betty - was a lot of stuff about abortion and immigration that felt like red meat without much long term value. No one seemed willing or able to say "we need to refocus here on what's important" and I think they all sounded way out of step with many voters. Compared to the Demdebate it felt like two comnpletely different conversations about America. Which is nice for envisioning Dem success - I think our conversation was cloaser to the real issues - but troubling in that we're really talking past each other these days.

Posted by: weboy | May 4, 2007 11:55:34 AM

Neil, Judis at The Plank sees the debate as a victory for Romney because he gains the most when primary poll and the debate poll are compared. It's an apples-to-dogs comparison, though.

Posted by: Clark | May 4, 2007 12:30:53 PM

Ezra asks, "Really, where do they get them all?"

They breed like bacteria. Tucked away in dark places, multiplying until all the food is gone. Then they come out looking for more.

At least that's what I hear.

Seems to make sense.

Posted by: ice weasel | May 4, 2007 2:05:35 PM

Whatever manufacturer supplies the Republicans with candidates doesn't have a very wide model selection.

To pharaphrase Henry Ford: Any flavor you want, as long as you want white male.

Posted by: Sean | May 5, 2007 3:31:46 AM

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Posted by: judy | Oct 8, 2007 5:40:37 AM

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