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May 02, 2007

Dirty South, Can Y'all Really Feel Me

by Nicholas Beaudrot of Electoral Math

Last quarter, John Edwards raised the most money from the South [defined by the AP as the Confederacy ex Texas ex Florida], even if you exclude North Carolina [and even if you include Texas, though not Florida]. So while polls show Southern Democratic voters exhibit only a mild preference for their regional candidate, Southern donors continue root for their favorite son.

Update: Check out Rep Jack Kingston (R-GA) sounding rather despondent: "'I think people are just not that fired up, the intensity level just isn't where it should be'". Awww, poor guy. I feel for you, I really do. Also to those who think the South will be in play, all the GOP has to do to end that is put a bona fide Southerner on the ticket. Since Haley Barbour (R-MS) is probably out of play because of his for for Big Tobacco, and Jeb Bush (R-FL) for other reasons, I think that leaves Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC) or a Southern Senator as the most likey choices.

May 2, 2007 | Permalink

Comments

Also to those who think the South will be in play, all the GOP has to do to end that is put a bona fide Southerner on the ticket.

No, all the GOP has to do is put up a candidate, any candidate, from anywhere in the universe, and the south will vote for her/him/it.

Posted by: Stephen | May 2, 2007 1:52:00 PM

Please read in my traditional anti-South rant here. Make liberal use of words like "burning," "traitors," and...gawd knows...wasn't there some prison camp where all the Union soldiers were starved to death or something?

Posted by: SomeCallMeTim | May 2, 2007 1:52:00 PM

I really, really can't believe that you would use the words "bona fide Southerner" and "Jeb Bush" anywhere near each other, except to say something like "that carpetbagger Jeb Bush is no bona fide Southerner".

I mean, if you're going to call Jeb Bush a bona fide Southerner then the term really has very little meaning.

Posted by: NonyNony | May 2, 2007 2:04:42 PM

Does Fred Thompson count as Southern?

Posted by: Jason | May 2, 2007 2:07:13 PM

Thompson does, which is why there's so much buzz around him, even though he hasn't even announced.

Posted by: Nicholas Beaudrot | May 2, 2007 2:15:36 PM

Doesn't Thompson Berle-ian reputation explain his buzz?

Posted by: SomeCallMeTim | May 2, 2007 2:40:41 PM

1) I would be interested how much of that is white or black money; Dem vs Repub money;liberal, moderate, or conservative money;corporate(??), pac, or individual money.

2) Of course there are Southerners as Molly Ivins or even me, but I presume many Southerners are giving Edwards money based on his Sothroness and a presumption that he will in some way act Southron as President he is not showing in his campaign.

That Petey and Sothrons support Edwards connects to the only qualm I have about him: that he will be more hawkish than he has indicated in his campaign. I am OK with that:my priorities are economics, social issues, and then war.

Posted by: bob mcmanus | May 2, 2007 3:36:39 PM

Can we have some analytic clarity about "the South"?

I mean, MS, AL, GA, and SC will vote for anyone with an (R) next to their name. But LA, AR and TN have gone blue in recent elections. VA is turning blue now. NC is hardly a gimme for the Republicans. When people talk about "the South" and about how Democrats should write it off, they are usually talking about a non-existent region that contains the views and allegiances of the Deep South, but the electoral votes of the entire region including the border states. The squishiness of the term "the south" allows for very problematic analysis. The border states are perfectly reasonably in play. A better candidate (ie, Edwards) helps put them in play.

Even if NC isn't winnable, making the Republicans play defense in 2008 (as we made them do in 2006, but not 2004) is always a good thing.

Posted by: DivGuy | May 2, 2007 3:50:59 PM

That Petey and Sothrons support Edwards connects to the only qualm I have about him

Same, though the qualm is different: "Southern populist" has sometimes described people with other characteristics I'm pretty uncomfortable with. There's no reason to wonder on that score about Edwards, AFAIK. I don't know nearly enough about his supporters or his political base, though. I assume that will all dribble out during the campaign.

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