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March 13, 2007

Iran's Nuclear Cash

I have some more substantive thoughts on Iran, Russia, and the anti-Putin line coming out of the Post over at Tapped, but this factoid from the article documenting Russia's cessation of nuclear fuel transfer to Iran struck me as worrisome:

Iran's central bank issued a new bank note Monday that includes a nuclear symbol, the Associated Press reported. The note shows electrons flying around a nucleus on a map of Iran.

That sort of thing is going to make it very hard for Iran to walk back its nuclear ambitions, even if its leaders want to. I've talked before about the need for America to give other countries the space to say yes to our priorities without sacrificing their dignity, but Iran seems to be boxing itself in here. The more they make nuclear power a matter of national pride, the less political room they'll have to eventually bargain it away.

But it is worth noting that in other countries, nuclear capabilities are considered a mark of national achievement, and one reason Ahmadinejad's brinksmanship isn't particularly unpopular (as opposed to his inattention to the economy and corruption) is that Iranians perceive America as simply denying their country what all great nations already possess, and thus, denying their country its rightful ascendance into the pantheon of world powers.

March 13, 2007 in Iran | Permalink

Comments

All true...but Ahmadinejad has another motive for brinksmanship: as James Surowiecki pointed out a couple of weeks ago, uncertaintry drives up oil prices, which bolsters Iran's (failing) economy and pays for all the stuff Ahmadinejad has promised to the Iranian people.

And of course, Bush is cooperating.

Posted by: Tom Hilton | Mar 13, 2007 12:03:44 PM

The bank note is just another public affirmation of what is accepted policy in Iran. I've read that polling reveals very high support by the people for Iran joining the nuclear club, as defined by having nuclear electric power and the means to enrich uranium to the low levels needed for fuel for those reactors.

That part won't be bargained away. It includes the centrafuges needed to get to nuke fuel enrichment levels (which are far lower than nuke bomb enrichment levels)

What MIGHT be bargained away:

- enrichment not carried to nuke bomb levels, as certified by the IAEA.

- IAEA inspections of the very intrusive variety (including remote video sensing in real time).

Bush and Israel want no nuclear power and no enrichment at all. So far Russia (and China) have supported the nuclear power position of Iran, but that might be changing for Russia - perhaps worried about Iranian influence over former Soviet countries in southwest asia which Russia would like to prevent for Iran and promote for itself.

As long as Iran asserts it wants nuclear-generated electricity only, many countries will support that position since the non-proliferation treates that Iran (and many others) signed allow that capability. Bush and Israel are basically saying that regardless of the treaty Iran is too dangerous to permit any nuclear development at all. That will be a hard sell for Bush and Israel Unlimited.

The furor over Iran sending weapons to Iraq to kill US troops is really just the way of avoiding the obvious truth that Iran says it wants what the treaties clearly say it can have: nuclear-generated electicity.

Iran will agree to whatever it takes to assert that right to nuke electicity, and that's why (IMO) the US doesn't want negotiations directly - we want to put them in the special club for countries that can't be extended the rights guaranteed under the treaties on non-proliferation. If that is truly US/Israel policy, we are going to have war.

Posted by: JimPortlandOR | Mar 13, 2007 12:56:21 PM

even if its leaders want to

They don't. Your point is a good one, but I doubt they've ever had any intention but to move ahead with their nuclear program in ways not approved by the international community.

Your point at TAPPED is interesting too. I suppose they may have arranged the stories in the order of importance they attribute to them. Arguably Putin's and Russia's broader issues are more important than this specific point in relation to Iran.

Posted by: Sanpete | Mar 13, 2007 2:07:48 PM

I read somewhere that Bush and Ahmadinejad could have a stupid contest. Between that and playing to the gallery in their own country discord in virtually guaranteed.

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Posted by: judy | Sep 27, 2007 4:16:30 AM

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