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February 14, 2007
The "Mystery" of Growth-Challenged Wages
This sort of thing needs to be said more often. Changes in the economy ranging from deunionization to the switch towards service sector jobs to foreign competition to regulatory policy to inequality have significantly increased the level of labor market tautness needed for average wages to grow. Used to be that relatively moderate levels of growth would translate into benefits fairly far down the income ladder. Now you need sustained, high growth to do the same thing. If the economy is an orange, it now needs to be squeezed much harder for the median American to get any juice.
Of course, you're not seeing particularly different levels of growth, and it's not as if the economy no longer has money in it, so where's all the cash going? Why, to the top, my friends, to the top. As I like to mention, in 2004, 53 cents of every dollar in salary increases went to the top one percent. The other 297 million or so of us had to split the remaining 47 cents. And federal policy isn't blameless either. In 2006, folks in the bottom fifth got an average of $20 in tax cuts, raising their incomes by 0.3%. Those in the middle fifth received average cut of $740, boosting their incomes by 2.5%. And those in the top one percent received average tax cuts of $44,000, boosting their incomes by more than 5%. And the rich grow richer grow richer grow richer...
February 14, 2007 in Economics, Inequality | Permalink
Comments
And the rich grow richer grow richer grow richer...
and the Dem. party in Congress becomes less responsive less responsive....
I like having the possibility that two leading candidates (Obama and Edwards) having some instincts to raise some populist hell on economic unfairness. Note I said possibility....
Posted by: JimPortlandOR | Feb 14, 2007 3:14:22 PM
And the rich grow richer grow richer grow richer...
and the Dem. party in Congress becomes less responsive less responsive....
I like having the possibility that two leading candidates (Obama and Edwards) having some instincts to raise some populist hell on economic unfairness. Note I said possibility....
Posted by: JimPortlandOR | Feb 14, 2007 3:14:30 PM
Meanwhile, despite deficit spending, economic growth is lackluster. A growth in real GDP of 2.5% isn't that high when you consider that deficit spending is supposed to stimulate economic growth. If Canada can grow faster than the US to the point that it's about to close the gap in median household income despite consistently running surpluses, then it means the US can speed up its growth, too.
Posted by: Alon Levy | Feb 14, 2007 3:16:26 PM
For some reason this post reminded me of a post from long ago where Ezra quoted DJ Shadow in the title, "Why Hip Hop Sucks In '96".
Posted by: Ben | Feb 14, 2007 3:50:30 PM
I like having the possibility that two leading candidates (Obama and Edwards) having some instincts to raise some populist hell on economic unfairness.
And what position do they take on illegal immigration, a huge factor suppressing the wages of the most vulnerable of American workers?
Posted by: Fred Jones | Feb 14, 2007 3:54:52 PM
Would it be too statist of me to propose a Consitutional amendment to tie the incomes of Federal judges, congresspersons, and other officials to the median national wage?
Posted by: Carlos | Feb 14, 2007 5:20:39 PM
Fred sez: And what position do they take on illegal immigration, a huge factor suppressing the wages of the most vulnerable of American workers?
Evidence, please.
My understanding is that economists, while not all in agreement, have analysis that suggests little or no impact on jobs and wages, with perhaps even an upside from the situation as it is.
Yes, this is a populist issue (of the Lou Dobbs variety), but it reflects middle and working class reaction of export of jobs that pay well, not import of workers that work for very little.
Note news today that Chysler is laying off another 13,000 workers in the US. These are not jobs that latin border crossers fill.
Posted by: JimPortlandOR | Feb 14, 2007 6:22:25 PM
Would it be too statist of me to propose a Consitutional amendment to tie the incomes of Federal judges, congresspersons, and other officials to the median national wage?
Actually, when we, for instance, talk about raising the minimum wage, that has no effect whatsoever upon the median wage, since the median wage is simply the middle one.
An illustration:
5, 5, 10, 12, 14, 17, 22
8, 8, 10, 12, 14, 17, 22
The median in both cases is 12.
I like the sentiment, though. It'd be nice to see no raise in Congressional pay and the like without an accompanying raise in the minimum wage. First, though, I'd like to see taxpayers paying taxes relative to the amount of wealth they control.
Posted by: Jon O. | Feb 14, 2007 7:20:00 PM
Evidence, please.
I haven't googled this issue, but think about the new bill passed lately by the Democrats for a minimum wage above $7. Now, when illegals are hired, what incentive is there to pay even the lawful minimum wage since they will be "off the books" with no SS numbers. Just their unlawful status attracts this abuse.
Posted by: Fred Jones | Feb 14, 2007 8:01:06 PM
And federal policy isn't blameless either.
Given the grip that money has on politics, anything else would be astounding.
Posted by: RLaing | Feb 14, 2007 8:16:27 PM
Fred, if by "huge" you mean reducing wages by 0.25%, you're right.
Posted by: Alon Levy | Feb 15, 2007 6:41:38 AM
"Changes in the economy ranging from deunionization to the switch towards service sector jobs to foreign competition to regulatory policy to inequality have significantly increased the level of labor market tautness needed for average wages to grow."
Ezra, please. We know this. Phillips Curve and all that. Go read some Richard Layard on welfare reform: this was the whole damn point of that supply side change.
We want to have a lower NAIRU, it's in everyone's interest that we do.
Sheesh.
Posted by: Tim Worstall | Feb 15, 2007 9:10:08 AM
Jon O.:
I don't really know a good mechanism for tying congressional wages to the minimum wage. Maybe making congressional wages a multiple of the yearly minimum wage?
It's just that in the US, income distribution is skewed to the left, as the mean wage is something around $60K, yet median income is lower, at around $45K (link). So I figured if we tied it to the lower figure, we might push it toward a more normal distribution.
Thanks for your point.
Posted by: Carlos | Feb 15, 2007 11:13:48 AM
Like immigration?
Great. Change the law. Until then, have some respect for it as you expect me to do on the issues that are lawful that I don't like.
We are a nation of laws. It's just not healthy for anyone's interest for you to parade around saying "Fuck the law".
Posted by: Fred Jones | Feb 15, 2007 12:08:02 PM
You're changing your argument from an economic one to a legal positivist one. Does it mean you're coneding that on economics you're just wrong?
Posted by: Alon Levy | Feb 15, 2007 5:22:59 PM
No, illegal immigration is wrong on so many levels. It's unlawful, and that really should be enough if you honor law. However, here's more for ya'...
(05-05) 04:00 PST Washington -- Lawmakers looking to reduce immigration turned their attention Wednesday to the slow job market, highlighting two studies concluding that newly arrived immigrants have filled all net new U.S. jobs created since 2000.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/05/05/MNGIUCK4P51.DTL
Rep. John Hostettler, R-Ind., chairman of the House Judiciary Committee panel on immigration and border security, called the results astounding and said immigration -- legal and illegal -- was hurting American workers.
Posted by: Fred Jones | Feb 15, 2007 5:40:37 PM
It's not "since 2000," but "between 2000 and 2004," a period of recession followed by a jobless recovery. If you want to look at the actual impact of immigration on the US, look at data from 1997 to 2007.
The article you cite quotes some people as assertins without references that immigration is bad, and others as asserting without references that immigration isn't bad.
Posted by: Alon Levy | Feb 15, 2007 7:23:25 PM
Lessee.........
20 million poor people from a different country, many without language skills or work skills, come here for a net gain of goods and services and, according to you, this has no impact.
That about it?
Posted by: Fred Jones | Feb 16, 2007 8:56:12 AM
Consider hte fact that real farm wages are UNCHANGED SINCE 1970. Think about that for a moment. And you claim that illegal immigration has absolutely nothing to do with that?
what a joke
Posted by: joe blow | Feb 17, 2007 4:33:45 PM
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Posted by: judy | Sep 26, 2007 10:30:46 PM
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