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February 18, 2007

In Which I Agree With Newt Gingrich

by Nicholas Beaudrot of Electoral Math

(via Political Wire)

Campaigning has gotten way out of control in the last 20 years.

There are likely several root causes for the explosion of campaign sizes. The lack of political consensus on the direction of the country, ads more people to invest time and energy in the search for new leaders or defending the status quo. The elimination of almost all "Old South" Southern Democrats and Northeastern Rockefeller Republicans increases the odds that donors will give not just to a candidate, but to multiple candidates as well as the party apparatus. Washington's willingness to put itself up for auction has made influencing legislators a more profitable enterprise, leading more to people to raise money. And I'm sure Ankush has his own thoughts about how changes in journalism and infotainment have led to an increase in campaign coverage at the expense of devoting time and resources to actual governance.

Unwinding this mess will prove very hard. Even public financing of elections will not eliminate the incentives to lock in supporters as early as possible. And while I'd love to produce a new political consensus overnight, it will likely take a decade or two for the Republican party to move beyond a platform of "more tax shifts" and "more war".

February 18, 2007 | Permalink

Comments

There's a question of whether you are talking about candidates in general, or just the Presidency.

The election to the President of the US is by far the most powerful office in the world filled by a direct election. The next most powerful vote for a single person is probably Russia and then France. Otherwise among major countries you vote for a party which is a much much different campaign style.

So that people spend 2 years and half a billion dollars for this, eh, doesn't really seem out of proportion to me.

Posted by: Tony V | Feb 18, 2007 5:37:57 PM

The money doesn't bother me as much as the time. I mean, at this rate, the day after the '12 election, the news will be nothing but a preview of '16. There's just not enough breathing room anymore.

What's more, if candidates are forced to be consistent, and facts on the ground change over two years, they're stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Posted by: Nicholas Beaudrot | Feb 18, 2007 6:44:12 PM

What really concerns me is to what extent will this make it more likely that people will just tune out electoral activities. Will campaigns been seen as nothing more than ad-like background noise and what will that do to voting rates? Its already difficult to get people engaged and this may make it harder.

Posted by: Bloggernista | Feb 18, 2007 10:52:38 PM

I agree with Newt, too, God help me. At least when my interest in politics was issues-based instead of electoral, I could ignore the various candidates' supporters and was much happier for it. Now, though... well, it's gonna be a long, miserable haul.

Posted by: latts | Feb 19, 2007 12:45:40 AM

What's more, if candidates are forced to be consistent, and facts on the ground change over two years, they're stuck between a rock and a hard place.

I think in time this will be solved by different ways of viewing 'consistency' and 'flip-flopping'. That's one of the reasons I wish some Democrat would start the process of change by referencing Keynes; 'When my information changes, I change my opinion. What do you do, sir?'

Posted by: NBarnes | Feb 19, 2007 2:41:48 AM

Broadcast and cable media have made a wonderful cash cow out of this: the less they cover what candidates are actually saying (and today's well-to-wall horserace coverage with talking heads is relatively cheap to produce, requiring as it does no field work or reporting staff to speak of), the more candidates have to spend to get any notion of their actual (or "actual") message across.

Posted by: paul | Feb 20, 2007 1:49:13 PM

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Posted by: judy | Sep 26, 2007 12:01:13 PM

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