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November 05, 2006


From Hotline:

Pew is out with their final pre-election poll and just like the ABC/Wash. Post poll, Pew shows Republicans with momentum. In the generic ballot, Dems lead by just 4 points. More importantly, the GOP has made significant cuts into the Dems once gigantic lead among indies. Also of note, from the release:

Also from Hotline:

"There also are some indications that Sen. John Kerry’s “botched joke” about the war Iraq may have had a modest impact on the race. Fully 84% of voters say they have heard a lot or a little about Kerry’s remarks – with 60% saying they have heard a lot. By comparison, just 26% say they have heard a lot about President Bush’s statement that he will keep Donald Rumsfeld as secretary of Defense until he leaves office in 2009."

Damn liberal media.

November 5, 2006 | Permalink


Pew has been bought off by the GOP, and is laying the groundwork for a late GOP "surge" so that when the votes are "counted" and the GOP "wins" big, there will be a bit of a pre-election narrative to point to.

Posted by: Stephen | Nov 5, 2006 5:05:46 PM

I live in Suffolk County NY which is pretty Republican and conservative and have heard nothing but how it is time to get them out. Yesterday, a guy and his wife came up to me to comment on my "Defend America, Fire the Republicans" sticker as to where he could get one. When I told him it was from MoveOn, he was taken aback and said, "really?, are they still available?"
People are disgusted and upset. The only way the Republicans will win is to steal it, but I think that the turn out is going to be so huge that this will prove to be impossible.

Posted by: marcus | Nov 5, 2006 5:18:19 PM

Been concerned for the last few weeks that Democrats were peaking too soon.

If Kerry had just apologized immediately, fewer people would have heard so much. But the press in general makes way too much of this kind of non-story.

Posted by: Sanpete | Nov 5, 2006 6:05:13 PM

It took Teixeira and Zogby weeks in 2004 to tweak their numbers in order to "explain" the discrepancy. I hope this time they have something prepared in advance.

Posted by: bob mcmanus | Nov 5, 2006 7:10:57 PM


I'm in college now, but I am from Suffolk, too, and while it does have a history of Republican leanings, it's become realiably Democratic in recent years. Then again, when you have people who are like the current GOP congress but at the local level, it's not hard to imagine the voters would kick them out, but still.

Posted by: Brian | Nov 5, 2006 9:00:05 PM

As much as I would love to break open a bottle of wine and watch us absolutely demolish them, with my luck, it won't be an absolutele disaster for them. Still, we'll gain seats in both houses, and even if we end up losing the Senate, we'll be in a better position than we've been in for some time, both because of our campaigning and because of their actions over the past few years. That alone is a reason to celebrate.

But as James Carville said, let's not stop campaigning like we were ten points down in the polls until election day. I live in a state where the biggest races are already decided, but if you live in Virginia, Arizona, Montana, Ohio, or any state like that, call everyone you know, and encourage them to vote. Let's show these fuckers what we're made of.

Posted by: Brian | Nov 5, 2006 9:11:22 PM

I apologize for the triple posting, but I'm a dummy and forgot to mention, on the Hotline page, there are other polls that show we still have a commanding lead. Even if it tightened somewhat, it's still a great sign. (Besides, doesn't it always narrow at the end?)

Posted by: Brian | Nov 5, 2006 9:13:22 PM

"Pew has been bought off by the GOP, and is laying the groundwork for a late GOP "surge" so that when the votes are "counted" and the GOP "wins" big, there will be a bit of a pre-election narrative to point to."

Quite the accusation. Anything to back it up?

Posted by: DRR | Nov 5, 2006 9:27:27 PM

I remember other cases where there was some misleading tightening in the polls in the final weekend; in 1992 it looked like Bush I was making a little comeback, and in 2004 Kerry had a late mini-surge. So keep cool.

Posted by: DonBoy | Nov 5, 2006 9:59:07 PM


Lighten up.

Posted by: Stephen | Nov 5, 2006 10:27:02 PM

Yes, the media are to a great extent to blame for endlessly repeating Kerry's half-assed joke. But what a maladroit idiot he is. If he can't avoid this kind of verbal all-thumbery, could he please just shut up from now on? He couldn't beat the worst president since James Buchanan; it's time to withdraw from the public scene before he does more damage.

Posted by: Aaron Baker | Nov 5, 2006 10:41:42 PM

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