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October 07, 2006

Happy Thoughts

By Neil the Ethical Werewolf

-The latest Newsweek poll looks wonderful.  Bush's approval rating has fallen to 33%.  By a 44-37 margin, Americans trust Democrats more than Republicans to fight the war on terror.  By a 42-36 margin, Democrats are better on moral values.  And we do even better than that on everything else.  I'm guessing that this poll overstates our strength somewhat -- the Bush approvals are such a sharp drop from other polls -- but it's definitely heartening.

-What happens if Republicans lose Congress by a big margin, Hastert has to resign, and lots of GOP moderates get taken out?  Does the Mike Pence wing of the GOP rise to power by claiming that Republicans lost because they went astray from their entitlement-slashing roots?  Let's hope so, because if there's anything Democrats have always been able to fight effectively on, it's defending popular entitlement programs.  I'd love to see the GOP spend the next several years replicating the failures of Newt Gingrich in '95-96 and Bush's Social Security privatization initiative. 

-It's been a good couple weeks for werewolf-endorsed candidates.  (Thanks to everyone who donated!  Together we sent well over $2000 to the races where Democrats most need your money.)  At the end of September, Gary Trauner and Victoria Wulsin made their first appearances on the National Journal's list of the 50 most competitive House races.  Darcy Burner's race moved from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-up" in the Cook Political Report.  Larry Grant won a newspaper endorsement in Idaho.  Make no mistake, Grant will look sort of like a House version of Ben Nelson.  But that's a lot better than Sali, who will look like a House version of Rick Santorum.  And every conservative Idaho Democrat in the house is one step closer to John Conyers running the Judiciary Committee, Henry Waxman wielding subpoena power, and Speaker Pelosi passing 100 hours of very popular Democratic legislation. 

October 7, 2006 | Permalink

Comments

-What happens if Republicans lose Congress by a big margin, Hastert has to resign, and lots of GOP moderates get taken out?

I'm actually hoping that the voters kick Hastert out themselves, although I'm a little less encouraged after watching John Laesch's performance on Hardball. Still, Fat Bastard's conduct can't play very well in Peoria, and his district is pretty close to Peoria.

Posted by: Chris | Oct 7, 2006 1:26:39 PM

Bush at 33%? Is this the lowest Bush has ever been? Does this reflect Bush's statement of support for Hastert?

Posted by: Unstable Isotope | Oct 7, 2006 2:25:33 PM

Does this reflect Bush's statement of support for Hastert?

The Newsweek article suggests it reflects continuing bad news from Iraq (and Woodward's book) and Foley. I'd guess being off-message is also hurting.

Posted by: Sanpete | Oct 7, 2006 3:06:10 PM

As a New Englander, I have only one response to this well-sourced and informative post.

SHUT UP SHUT UP SHUT UP SHUT UP

You're gonna jinx us, fergodsake. Not cool.

Posted by: DivGuy | Oct 7, 2006 3:18:50 PM

"Bush at 33%? Is this the lowest Bush has ever been?"

He hit 29% in one poll a while ago.

Posted by: Petey | Oct 7, 2006 7:30:41 PM

"Make no mistake, Grant will look sort of like a House version of Ben Nelson."

I welcome the addition of a conservative wing to the Democratic party. If we want to actually be the governing party of America, we're going to have to happily be the big tent party.

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The Sunday NYT has a mildly interesting piece on this topic, with the following quote from Brad Ellsworth:

"Here’s what I believe: I’m pro-life. I believe in a traditional marriage and the Second Amendment."

Welcome to life in the majority. It includes folks like Larry Grant, Brad Ellsworth, and Harold Ford being on the same side of the good guys. Think of it as a popular front government.

Posted by: Petey | Oct 7, 2006 7:42:20 PM

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