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September 01, 2006

Got To Admit It's Getting Better

Some good news for Democrats on the front page of USA Today. And believe it or not, it doesn't even contain a pie chart. The article is an overview of the 2006 elections, and the congealing conventional wisdom that Democrats are rushing towards an outright victory in both the House and the Senate. Professional prognosticator Stuart Rothenberg is quoted saying that libs will pick up the 15 seats necessary for control of Congress, while eminent Congress-watcher Thomas Mann says they'll take upwards of 20. In the Senate, the fight seems tougher, but here too USA Today releases polling showing that Democrats lead in Pennsylvania, Montana, Ohio, and Minnesota, while Republicans might be able to hold Missouri.  And that doesn't even mention potential pick-ups in Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Virginia.

It's worth counseling caution, however. Elections happen in November, not late August, and that's a distinct blessing for incumbents. The Summer months bring higher gas prices, more violence (in Iraq and at home), higher gas prices, harsher weather, and more high gas prices. Those are painful trends for incumbents, but they universally ease as autumn settles across the land. That isn't to say that cool climates will provide relief to the embattled GOP, but this might not be the most representative moment from which to draw predictions.

Nevertheless, Bush's non-bounce from the foiled plots in London and the skepticism towards his new Iraq speeches point in a more optimistic direction, towards a country that's grown weary of this crew, and not merely annoyed over temporary conditions. Most worrisome for the GOP, but less talked about in the media, is that wages are largely stagnating even as inflation picks up. Health costs, energy prices, mortgage rates, and all the rest are easily outpacing salary growth, the realization that voters hate this unequal economy is beginning to dawn, and with it, an understanding that folks have real reason to be upset. While Congress dithers over gay marriage bills and endless Iraq resolutions, Americans are losing their health care, seeing the interest rates on their variable mortgages skyrocket, and generally losing economic ground -- and their president and politicians seem uniformly uninterested in addressing that. That's sparked an enduring resentment, one that won't fade with the heat.

--Ezra Klein

September 1, 2006 | Permalink

Comments

Exactly ezra, these are the summer doldrums. The war will start soon. I wouldn't get too excited yet.

I hope you understood that a variable interest rate loan could go up by definition. Just because your salesman said this will probably go down, really means nothing in your contract.

You suggest the President is "uniformly" not interested in holding down health costs. That's not true. The President was in Minn. last week signing an executive order on health care, you know that even if you didn't discuss the order.

In Minn. the President slamed Trial Lawyers and said, "These Trial Lawyers have to back-off and Colman is gonna have to stand up." But Colman did when he joined with Senator Mel Martinez (R-FL) with the TEA Act. Which is America's best hope for a brighter tomorrow. Of course you better sell your stock in Unite Health Care because they are tied into that old WW-2 way of employer-based health insurance which will soon be just a bad memory.

Its much like the Boston TEA Party where a bunch of Native Americans went crazy and we had the start of a new civilization. Reform is at hand.

Like President Bush says, "You can run but you cannot hide. We will not faulter and we will not fail."

I predict Gov. Granholm and Gov. Rendell will go down in flames. That will give everyone in the Democratic Party something to think about before '08.

Watch Santorum and boring Casey debate this weekend on national TV and you will get a feel for what I mean.

May the best man win.

Posted by: Ron Greiner | Sep 1, 2006 10:38:13 AM

Gov. Rendell will go down? Want to put some money on that, Ron?

Posted by: Ezra | Sep 1, 2006 11:13:46 AM

Yes, will you give me odds?

Posted by: Ron Greiner | Sep 1, 2006 11:18:29 AM

Can the stakes, if Ezra wins, involve Ron promising to post five times on RedState for every one time he posts here?

~rubbing hands together~

Posted by: Neil the Ethical Werewolf | Sep 1, 2006 11:31:05 AM

Neil: Rendell is the so-called favorite. I should get the odds and not the other way around.

I am counting on Casey being a dead weight around Rendell's neck.

Swanntorum for a better tommorow in the Commonwealth.

Posted by: Ron Greiner | Sep 1, 2006 11:39:11 AM

To your list of problems for the Republicans over the next 10 weeks, I'd add one: the doughnut hole. A growing number of seniors will suddenly start paying a lot for their prescriptions, and they'll remember whose idea that was. It's too late for Congress to rush back into session and fill that hole with a huge pile of money/debt, so the Republicans are stuck with this one.

Posted by: dbomp | Sep 1, 2006 12:43:33 PM

The economic discontent is a slow simmer in American politics, and has been for over 25 years, without doing the Democrats much good. The "pros" on the Democratic side are too corrupt, too much of their class, too shy from previous losses, to take a message of betrayal to the American people and sell it.

The on-coming recession, which will be one of the most painful in the post-WWII period, because it will reveal the quickening swirl of a vicious downward spiral, won't much affect the November election. Karl Rove will have his last hurrah, though, and so I am inclined to think the Dems will take the House, just barely, but not the Senate. (It is really hard to imagine any scenario, in which the Dems take the Senate.) 2008, though, is looking really bad for the Republicans. Recession + Iraq is going to be ugly.

Posted by: Bruce Wilder | Sep 1, 2006 1:18:43 PM

Hopefully, Ron Greiner's grasp of current electoral dynamics is about as shaky as his notions of American History (NB Ron: "Native Americans", i.e. "Indians", had nothing to do with the Boston Tea Party) - his confident predictions of Republican landslides in either Michigan or Pennsylvania don't seem to be borne out by current polling: but I guess this is a harbinger of things to come: Repub shills will (a la "Baghdad Bob") no doubt be crowing over their pending triumphs right up till Election Day night - and probably polishing up their Op-Eds and blogposts for the morrow explaining why the Democratic tsunami really wasn't all that significant.

Posted by: Jay C | Sep 1, 2006 1:36:16 PM

I am counting on Casey being a dead weight around Rendell's neck.

Swanntorum for a better tommorow in the Commonwealth.

This is nonsense. Pennsylvania, unlike Michigan, has recovered from the 2001-2002 recession and is adding jobs every month. Rendell, unlike Michigan's Granholm, is massively outfundraising his GOP opponent (Swann). Granholm is fundraising pretty well, but the GOP candidate is Dick DeVos, the Amway tycoon, who has dumped $10 miilion into his race already, and that's more than Swann will spend by election day.

A few months ago, Rendell and Santorum decided to use their cash advantages to go on the air against their opponents. Rendell used his money to go from a dead heat with Swann to a 15-20 point lead. Santorum used his money to go from a 15-20 point deficit against Casey to a 5-10 point deficit - and that's including a Green candidate who'll probably be kicked off the ballot. And now Swann and Casey are both on the air; Casey will be on the air until election day.

Posted by: David Weigel | Sep 1, 2006 1:42:43 PM

The economic discontent is a slow simmer in American politics, and has been for over 25 years, without doing the Democrats much good.

That's because, whether by design or by accident, economic performance has been extremely good in the quarter prior to a Presidential election when a Republican holds the office. This despite the fact that economic performance overall during Republican administrations is generally lousy.

Voters have short memories.

It looks like this time, the Republicans either got unlucky, or decided that the proles no longer deserve even one quarter of good news every few years.

Posted by: felix | Sep 1, 2006 1:52:06 PM

LOL...Me thinks the confident Republican, Ron seems to know something we all don't? Cough....DIEBOLD BLUNDER...Cough.

Posted by: Beady Eye Guy | Sep 1, 2006 1:52:08 PM

David Weigel: You have been reading Governor Rendell's press releases about the Pennsylvania Miracle. Don't always believe that stuff that comes out from the campaign people. A Pittsburgh Tribune-Review Editorial said this about job growth:

"There are five kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, statistics, statistics during political campaigns and statistics during political campains of Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell."

Allegheney Institute President Jake Haulk wrote last week:

//Furthermore, of the 3,400 added construction jobs over the last twelve months, 2,700 were in the heavy and civil engineering group. That likely means government projects for the most part. The number of workers actually constructing buildings was flat from July 2005 to July 2006. And, since 2003 these jobs are up a mere [2.7 percent in Pennsylvania] compared to a whopping [12 percent nationally]. Thus, the Governor‘s press release statement that, —Steady growth in construction jobs is a good indicator of future economic expansion….“ is extremely ironic. First, growth in construction jobs does not necessarily presage future economic expansion, as anyone familiar with cyclical sectors of the economy would know. Second, if it is true that rising construction employment is a harbinger of future economic expansion, then the U.S. economy will continue to out pace Pennsylvania by a factor of three or four.//

The Trib-Review said about "the fuzzy math of Philly's Fast Eddie," as they call him, "He was distinguished for ignoance; for he had only one idea and that was wrong."

dbomp: Please don't bring up the dough-nut hole. That is a festering time bomb we are trying to keep quiet about in the Republican Party.

Posted by: Ron Greiner | Sep 1, 2006 2:39:25 PM

What are the odds?

Posted by: Ezra | Sep 1, 2006 3:25:52 PM

What do you feel you can give me?

Posted by: Ron Greiner | Sep 1, 2006 4:03:21 PM

You know people like Ron and Rove were scary in 2002 and 2004, and now, like some washed out rock stars, they just seem kind of sad. I almost want to go "awww" and pet you on the head Ron.

Posted by: akaison | Sep 1, 2006 5:16:38 PM

Ron is so broadly knowledgeable: health care, politics, the economy - who knows what else. So why doesn't he set up his own blog and spew his right-wing fantasies there - without comments allowed for sure, like other righty blogs? Ban him, Ezra.

As for the Congress, I won't make much difference. The Rethugs have run out of bad ideas to implement and the Dems won't have the courage or the stable majority to pass anything that Rove sneers at.

Accept the facts of our situation: we are f**ked as a nation, headed for the poor house with Rethugs holding the keys. Bush will veto anything progressive or sensible even. What they can't win honestly at the voting booth, the Rethugs will steal through manipulation of one kind or the other.

The anger expressed by the voters in 1932 after decades of corrupt and incompetent Republican rule is needed again, but is highly unlikely, and there is no FDR to lead the party toward a sweeping victory and nearly two decades of responsible government.

Posted by: JimPortlandOR | Sep 1, 2006 8:00:09 PM

The anger expressed by the voters in 1932 after decades of corrupt and incompetent Republican rule is needed again, but is highly unlikely, and there is no FDR to lead the party toward a sweeping victory and nearly two decades of responsible government.

FDR promised a balanced budget in 1932, and the New Deal was just a vague campaign slogan with no meat behind it. Eleanor Roosevelt supposedly told a friend that she would have voted for Norman Thomas that year if she hadn't been married to Franklin. Any Democrat would have won the 1932 election.

Posted by: Chris | Sep 1, 2006 9:31:58 PM

it's true FDR was an evolution for him- but I don't see anyone in this pack of Democrats willing to adapt to anything. God, they can't get beyond triangulation much less come up with a course for leadership.

Posted by: akaison | Sep 1, 2006 10:15:55 PM

Given the recent signs of electoral corruption and the distinct lack of interest in investigating them by the respectable media, I'm fairly confident the Republicans will "win" the House in 2008.

"Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows that the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That's how it goes
Everybody knows"

Posted by: Phoenician in a time of Romans | Sep 2, 2006 1:32:00 AM

Swanntorum for a better tommorow in the Commonwealth.

Does OneTrackRonTroll's HSA cover mental healthcare? Or will the state have to pay for his inevitable involuntary commitment?

Posted by: ahem | Sep 2, 2006 1:43:00 AM

What do you feel you can give me?

I'd say an unbanning in November, given that you should be banned right now so that everyone else can be well shot of you.

Here's my semi-wildcard: Granholm wins on the back of the Tigers. Not saying that the Tigers will go all the way, but the Gov has the advantage of being able to ride some coat-tails of the first non-Pistons success in Michigan for years.

Posted by: ahem | Sep 2, 2006 1:51:19 AM

香水有毒
求佛
秋天不回来
不怕不怕
千里之外
香水有毒
求佛
秋天不回来
不怕不怕
千里之外
香水有毒
秋天不回来
求佛
香飘飘
我们都是好孩子
不怕不怕
不要再来伤害我
天下无双
狼爱上羊
老公老公我爱你
寻找李慧珍
god is a girl
大城小爱
舞娘
老婆老婆我爱你
曹操
qq爱
约定
那一夜
隐形的翅膀
光芒
飞行部落
真爱
冰菊舞
死了都要爱
一万个理由
反转地球
my love
好姑娘
爱我别走
我不后悔
飞舞
yesterday once more
王子变青蛙
We will rock you
不得不爱
夜曲
发如雪
爸爸妈妈
爱我就别伤害我
我很想爱他
桃花朵朵开
神话
笔记
吉祥三宝
不想长大
暧昧
迷魂计
花田错
香水有毒
秋天不回来
求佛
香飘飘
我们都是好孩子
不怕不怕
不要再来伤害我
天下无双
狼爱上羊
老公老公我爱你
寻找李慧珍
god is a girl
大城小爱
舞娘
老婆老婆我爱你
曹操
qq爱
约定
那一夜
隐形的翅膀
光芒
飞行部落
真爱
冰菊舞
死了都要爱
一万个理由
反转地球
my love
好姑娘
爱我别走
我不后悔
飞舞
yesterday once more
王子变青蛙
We will rock you
不得不爱
夜曲
发如雪
爸爸妈妈
爱我就别伤害我
我很想爱他
桃花朵朵开
神话
笔记
吉祥三宝
不想长大
暧昧
迷魂计
花田错
香水有毒
秋天不回来
求佛
香飘飘
我们都是好孩子
不怕不怕
不要再来伤害我
天下无双
狼爱上羊
老公老公我爱你
寻找李慧珍
god is a girl
大城小爱
舞娘
老婆老婆我爱你
曹操
qq爱
约定
那一夜
隐形的翅膀
光芒
飞行部落
真爱
冰菊舞
死了都要爱
一万个理由
反转地球
my love
好姑娘
爱我别走
我不后悔
飞舞
yesterday once more
王子变青蛙
We will rock you
不得不爱
夜曲
发如雪
爸爸妈妈
爱我就别伤害我
我很想爱他
桃花朵朵开
神话
笔记
吉祥三宝
不想长大
暧昧
迷魂计
花田错
香水有毒
秋天不回来
求佛
香飘飘
我们都是好孩子
不怕不怕
不要再来伤害我
天下无双
狼爱上羊
老公老公我爱你
寻找李慧珍
god is a girl
大城小爱
舞娘
老婆老婆我爱你
曹操
qq爱
约定
那一夜
隐形的翅膀
光芒
飞行部落
真爱
冰菊舞
死了都要爱
一万个理由
反转地球
my love
好姑娘
爱我别走
我不后悔
飞舞
yesterday once more
王子变青蛙
We will rock you
不得不爱
夜曲
发如雪
爸爸妈妈
爱我就别伤害我
我很想爱他
桃花朵朵开
神话
笔记
吉祥三宝
不想长大
暧昧
迷魂计
花田错
香水有毒
秋天不回来
求佛
香飘飘
我们都是好孩子
不怕不怕
不要再来伤害我
天下无双
狼爱上羊
老公老公我爱你
寻找李慧珍
god is a girl
大城小爱
舞娘
老婆老婆我爱你
曹操
qq爱
约定
那一夜
隐形的翅膀
光芒
飞行部落
真爱
冰菊舞
死了都要爱
一万个理由
反转地球
my love
好姑娘
爱我别走
我不后悔
飞舞
yesterday once more
王子变青蛙
We will rock you
不得不爱
夜曲
发如雪
爸爸妈妈
爱我就别伤害我
我很想爱他
桃花朵朵开
神话
笔记
吉祥三宝
不想长大
暧昧
迷魂计
花田错
香水有毒
秋天不回来
求佛
香飘飘
我们都是好孩子
不怕不怕
不要再来伤害我
天下无双
狼爱上羊
老公老公我爱你
寻找李慧珍
god is a girl
大城小爱
舞娘
老婆老婆我爱你
曹操
qq爱
约定
那一夜
隐形的翅膀
光芒
飞行部落
真爱
冰菊舞
死了都要爱
一万个理由
反转地球
my love
好姑娘
爱我别走
我不后悔
飞舞
yesterday once more
王子变青蛙
We will rock you
不得不爱
夜曲
发如雪
爸爸妈妈
爱我就别伤害我
我很想爱他
桃花朵朵开
神话
笔记
吉祥三宝
不想长大
暧昧
迷魂计
花田错
香水有毒
秋天不回来
求佛
香飘飘
我们都是好孩子
不怕不怕
不要再来伤害我
天下无双
狼爱上羊
老公老公我爱你
寻找李慧珍
god is a girl
大城小爱
舞娘
老婆老婆我爱你
曹操
qq爱
约定
那一夜
隐形的翅膀
光芒
飞行部落
真爱
冰菊舞
死了都要爱
一万个理由
反转地球
my love
好姑娘
爱我别走
我不后悔
飞舞
yesterday once more
王子变青蛙
We will rock you
不得不爱
夜曲
发如雪
爸爸妈妈
爱我就别伤害我
我很想爱他
桃花朵朵开
神话
笔记
吉祥三宝
不想长大
暧昧
迷魂计
花田错
香水有毒
秋天不回来
求佛
香飘飘
我们都是好孩子
不怕不怕
不要再来伤害我
天下无双
狼爱上羊
老公老公我爱你
寻找李慧珍
god is a girl
大城小爱
舞娘
老婆老婆我爱你
曹操
qq爱
约定
那一夜
隐形的翅膀
光芒
飞行部落
真爱
冰菊舞
死了都要爱
一万个理由
反转地球
my love
好姑娘
爱我别走
我不后悔
飞舞
yesterday once more
王子变青蛙
We will rock you
不得不爱
夜曲
发如雪
爸爸妈妈
爱我就别伤害我
我很想爱他
桃花朵朵开
神话
笔记
吉祥三宝
不想长大
暧昧
迷魂计
花田错
香水有毒
秋天不回来
香飘飘
你是我的玫瑰花
求佛
千里之外
狼爱上羊
天下无双
上海滩
寻找李慧珍
不怕不怕
健康快乐动起来
号码
我们都是好孩子
对不起我的最爱
老婆老婆我爱你
爱上你这样的女人
qq爱
大城小爱
认真的雪
隐形的翅膀
光芒
god is a girl
舞娘
好姑娘
吹眼睛
真爱
老公老公我爱你
死了都要爱
太美丽
曹操
那一夜
my love
一万个理由
反转地球
今天你要嫁给我
yesterday once more
爸爸妈妈
发光体
爱我别走
夜曲
我很想爱他
We will rock you
神话
不得不爱
发如雪
为什么相爱的人不能在一起
蝴蝶
王子变青蛙
雨夜
香水有毒
秋天不回来
香飘飘
你是我的玫瑰花
求佛
千里之外
狼爱上羊
天下无双
上海滩
寻找李慧珍
不怕不怕
健康快乐动起来
号码
我们都是好孩子
对不起我的最爱
老婆老婆我爱你
爱上你这样的女人
qq爱
大城小爱
认真的雪
隐形的翅膀
光芒
god is a girl
舞娘
好姑娘
吹眼睛
真爱
老公老公我爱你
死了都要爱
太美丽
曹操
那一夜
my love
一万个理由
反转地球
今天你要嫁给我
yesterday once more
爸爸妈妈
发光体
爱我别走
夜曲
我很想爱他
We will rock you
神话
不得不爱
发如雪
为什么相爱的人不能在一起
蝴蝶
王子变青蛙
雨夜
一万个理由
狼爱上羊
那一夜
不要再来伤害我
大城小爱
寂寞沙洲冷
完美世界
爸爸妈妈
生日礼物
功夫
情人
不得不爱
发如雪
一眼万年
希望
第一次爱的人
夜曲
一万个理由
狼爱上羊
那一夜
不要再来伤害我
大城小爱
寂寞沙洲冷
完美世界
爸爸妈妈
生日礼物
功夫
情人
不得不爱
发如雪
一眼万年
希望
第一次爱的人
夜曲
香水有毒
秋天不回来
香飘飘
你是我的玫瑰花
求佛
千里之外
狼爱上羊
天下无双
上海滩
寻找李慧珍
不怕不怕
健康快乐动起来
号码
我们都是好孩子
对不起我的最爱
老婆老婆我爱你
爱上你这样的女人
qq爱
大城小爱
认真的雪
隐形的翅膀
光芒
god is a girl
舞娘
好姑娘
吹眼睛
真爱
老公老公我爱你
死了都要爱
太美丽
曹操
那一夜
my love
一万个理由
反转地球
今天你要嫁给我
yesterday once more
爸爸妈妈
发光体
爱我别走
夜曲
我很想爱他
We will rock you
神话
不得不爱
发如雪
为什么相爱的人不能在一起
蝴蝶
王子变青蛙
雨夜

Posted by: werwe | Sep 15, 2006 5:03:28 AM

香水有毒
求佛
秋天不回来
不怕不怕
千里之外
秋天不回来
求佛
香飘飘
我们都是好孩子
不怕不怕
不要再来伤害我
天下无双
狼爱上羊
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舞娘
老婆老婆我爱你
曹操
qq爱
约定
那一夜
隐形的翅膀
光芒
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真爱
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死了都要爱
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my love
好姑娘
爱我别走
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We will rock you
不得不爱
夜曲
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爸爸妈妈
爱我就别伤害我
我很想爱他
桃花朵朵开
神话
笔记
吉祥三宝
不想长大
暧昧
迷魂计
花田错
秋天不回来
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香飘飘
我们都是好孩子
不怕不怕
不要再来伤害我
天下无双
狼爱上羊
老公老公我爱你
寻找李慧珍
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舞娘
老婆老婆我爱你
曹操
qq爱
约定
那一夜
隐形的翅膀
光芒
飞行部落
真爱
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死了都要爱
一万个理由
反转地球
my love
好姑娘
爱我别走
我不后悔
飞舞
yesterday once more
王子变青蛙
We will rock you
不得不爱
夜曲
发如雪
爸爸妈妈
爱我就别伤害我
我很想爱他
桃花朵朵开
神话
笔记
吉祥三宝
不想长大
暧昧
迷魂计
花田错
秋天不回来
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不怕不怕
不要再来伤害我
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老公老公我爱你
寻找李慧珍
god is a girl
大城小爱
舞娘
老婆老婆我爱你
曹操
qq爱
约定
那一夜
隐形的翅膀
光芒
飞行部落
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冰菊舞
死了都要爱
一万个理由
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好姑娘
爱我别走
我不后悔
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不得不爱
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桃花朵朵开
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吉祥三宝
不想长大
暧昧
迷魂计
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求佛
香飘飘
我们都是好孩子
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god is a girl
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曹操
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那一夜
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好姑娘
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号码
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爱上你这样的女人
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大城小爱
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god is a girl
舞娘
好姑娘
吹眼睛
真爱
老公老公我爱你
死了都要爱
太美丽
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那一夜
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一万个理由
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你是我的玫瑰花
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狼爱上羊
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不怕不怕
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号码
我们都是好孩子
对不起我的最爱
老婆老婆我爱你
爱上你这样的女人
qq爱
大城小爱
认真的雪
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god is a girl
舞娘
好姑娘
吹眼睛
真爱
老公老公我爱你
死了都要爱
太美丽
曹操
那一夜
my love
一万个理由
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爸爸妈妈
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爱我别走
夜曲
我很想爱他
We will rock you
神话
不得不爱
发如雪
为什么相爱的人不能在一起
蝴蝶
王子变青蛙
雨夜
香水有毒
秋天不回来
香飘飘
你是我的玫瑰花
求佛
千里之外
狼爱上羊
天下无双
上海滩
寻找李慧珍
不怕不怕
健康快乐动起来
号码
我们都是好孩子
对不起我的最爱
老婆老婆我爱你
爱上你这样的女人
qq爱
大城小爱
认真的雪
隐形的翅膀
光芒
god is a girl
舞娘
好姑娘
吹眼睛
真爱
老公老公我爱你
死了都要爱
太美丽
曹操
那一夜
my love
一万个理由
反转地球
今天你要嫁给我
yesterday once more
爸爸妈妈
发光体
爱我别走
夜曲
我很想爱他
We will rock you
神话
不得不爱
发如雪
为什么相爱的人不能在一起
蝴蝶
王子变青蛙
雨夜
一万个理由
狼爱上羊
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香飘飘
我们都是好孩子
不怕不怕
不要再来伤害我
天下无双
狼爱上羊
老公老公我爱你
寻找李慧珍
god is a girl
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舞娘
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曹操
qq爱
约定
那一夜
隐形的翅膀
光芒
飞行部落
真爱
冰菊舞
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一万个理由
反转地球
my love
好姑娘
爱我别走
我不后悔
飞舞
yesterday once more
王子变青蛙
We will rock you
不得不爱
夜曲
发如雪
爸爸妈妈
爱我就别伤害我
我很想爱他
桃花朵朵开
神话
笔记
吉祥三宝
不想长大
暧昧
迷魂计
花田错

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