Bipartisan Maverick Destruction Advice

By Neil the Ethical Werewolf

I think George Allen is a more likely 2008 Republican candidate than John McCain, but it doesn't hurt to have a plan for every possibility. And given my mad Edwards love, I'm itching to put this bit from the latest Marist Poll where everybody can see:

Senator McCain has a strong lead against all the top Democratic presidential contenders except for John Edwards. When posed in hypothetical match-ups against the leading Democrats, John McCain breaks fifty percent against Al Gore, John Kerry, and Hillary Clinton and outpaces each by double-digits. Senator McCain’s lead is fueled by the majority support he receives from independent voters in each of these contests. McCain would face a more competitive race against John Edwards. McCain receives the support of 47% of registered voters compared with 41% for Edwards.

Previous polls have shown similar results, with Edwards outpacing other Democrats against McCain. Gore and Kerry, by the way, each lose by a whopping 17% to McCain in the latest run. And there's reason to think that Edwards would have a particular advantage against McCain in the general election.

A lot of McCain's appeal comes from his image as a bipartisan maverick. It's not just that people like bipartisanship, it's that his lack of an obvious partisan bent allows voters to project their fantasies onto him. Before seeing any specific data about his position on abortion, for example, it's easy to imagine that he's one of those moderate pro-choice Republicans (who don't actually help pro-choicers when the chips are down, but let's set that aside for a moment). As it turns out, he's in favor of banning abortion with no exceptions except rape, incest, and the life of the mother. When you look bipartisan, a big group of voters in the middle find it easy to project their preferences onto you, as long as you can keep quiet about your actual views.

The key to beating McCain is to destroy his bipartisan reputation. This is supported by Ezra's observation that McCain does a lot worse when you call him "John McCain, the Republican" and poll him against someone who you describe as "the Democrat." Polls like this better approximate how McCain will be seen in the heat of an election. It's easy to look like a bipartisan maverick when you're brokering compromises in a congenial Senate, and you have lots of control about which issues you want to address. It's a lot harder when you're actually running for office. It's well-nigh impossible if you've voted against minimum wage increases and other pro-worker measures throughout your career, and you're up against a mill worker's son who can drive the minimum wage issue harder than anyone else. The old stereotype of Republicans as mean old men who don't care about workers will replace McCain's bipartisan reputation.

It's sort of like the way Bush was able to redefine Kerry. Since Bush was seen as a decisive and forceful leader, he was able to easily cast Kerry as indecisive and flip-floppy while reinforcing positive perceptions of himself. Edwards' blue-collar roots allow him to do the same when he casts Republicans as enemies of the working man. Lots of Democrats try this, but it works best when a candidate can first get working-class people to identify with him. For Edwards against McCain, the ethos, pathos, and logos are all in place.

In the comments to my last post, Iron Lungfish was concerned that Edwards' lack of experience in foreign policy would cause him trouble against McCain. My answer, basically, was that I've never heard of an American whose vote in November was determined by experience on any issue. Michael Dukakis showed us that competence doesn't win elections, and what is experience supposed to give you beyond competence? In fact, one could argue that the more experienced candidate has lost the last 30 years of American presidential elections. If you can get people to nod more when you talk about an issue, you win that issue, regardless of how experienced or inexperienced you are. And with McCain's view that we should send even more troops to Iraq, I don't like his chances against Edwards in the nodding game.

And that's how you destroy McCain's biggest asset. Run John Edwards, and shout it from the rooftops -- Republican John McCain is no friend of working people.