Ezra Klein: Polling Quirk

January 04, 2006

Polling Quirk

This is kind of interesting. I was screwing around in Polling Report's 2008 category, looking at all the McCain-Hillary polls. Seems to be that if you phrase the question as a match-up between John McCain and Hillary Clinton, McCain walks away with 55%+ of the vote. However, if you say "the Republican nominee John McCain" and "the Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton," the margin gets diced up, with McCain generally eking out a 2-4% lead in the mid-40's. Huh.

Also, this poll warmed my heart a bit:

"Thinking ahead to the 2008 presidential election, would you like the next president to be similar to George W. Bush in terms of policies and programs, or someone who is completely different?"
Similar to Bush: 36%
Completely Different: 60%
Unsure: 5%

That guy's sure headed towards an enduring, popular legacy.

January 4, 2006 | Permalink

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Comments

Interesting on the McCain. I guess once you un-bipartisanize him, he doesn't do so well.

Not only is Edwards better against McCain than Hillary (-3 versus -8), but McCain is basically your average anti-worker Republican on economic issues like the minimum wage. You should be able to beat him if you make him look like that Rick Cassara guy whose photo is a few entries down. And Edwards is the optimal guy for doing that.

Of course, I seriously doubt that McCain will be the nominee, since lots of GOP activists want someone who will beat up on Democrats more. But that's never stopped me before...

Posted by: Neil the Ethical Werewolf | Jan 4, 2006 3:41:02 PM

This obviously shows how to defeat McCain. Operation Sink McCain must begin today, and it consists of not mentioning his name without the word Republican. As in "Republican John McCain stopped by Taco Bell last weekend and ordered two chalupas". No matter how trivial the mention, it must be prefaced with the word Republican. Bonus points if you can work in the phrase "Bush supporter".

Posted by: Greg | Jan 4, 2006 3:42:45 PM

"it consists of not mentioning his name without the word Republican."

Republican John McCain caught in 3-way with Pat Robertson & Jerry Falwell, says they were praying about intelligent design.

Posted by: CParis | Jan 4, 2006 3:47:35 PM

I was screwing around in Polling Report's 2008 category...

Is this one of those polls that count?

Posted by: Fred Jones | Jan 4, 2006 4:34:47 PM

The McCain thing is weird. If you asked the same two questions to the same person and they answered differently...I mean thats just sad. Considering the difference in the numbers, that has to be the case.

Good comments above about McCain-beatin'-stategery though.

Posted by: Adrock | Jan 4, 2006 5:04:02 PM

Popularity now means nothing, what matters is his popularity after he leaves office.

History will vindicate Bush.

Posted by: shoelimpy™ | Jan 4, 2006 5:15:10 PM

History will vindicate Bush.

I believe you are right. The presidents that are revered the most now were often hated the most while they were in office. Lincoln is my best example.

Posted by: Fred Jones | Jan 4, 2006 5:41:17 PM

The problem with a McCain candidacy for ANY Democrat is that McCain has a worshipful following among the Washington Media Elite. It won't be a fair fight. I mean some of these so called journalists have openly said they would quit their jobs to work in a McCain administration. If they had their way they would cancel the 2008 election and declare McCain King for Life.

So much for the liberal media.

Posted by: Nan | Jan 4, 2006 5:59:32 PM

Just wanted to say, love your work, Ezra, however, there is one exception: your take on the appeal and prospects of various politicians, especially related to Presidential races.

I think you're pretty much completely wrong about all your 2008 statements, and I recall the same about your writings of '04. Maybe it's because you're young, or deep in the beltway bubble mindset. Can't say for sure without knowing you.

But otherwise, keep up the good work.

And History Will Vindicate Bush, because those who are revered were often hated the most? That's a logical fallacy. Thanks for trying, though, I enjoyed the shock. Lincoln comparable to Bush, that's good. I didn't realize conservatives dropped acid.

Posted by: Jack B. Nimble | Jan 4, 2006 11:52:33 PM

The most important thing in the world is not being "vindicated by history". Doing good is more important, or what you believe.

But if being vindicated by history is going to be your standard? Bush will be an even bigg failure than he is now. The way to be loved by history books is to create massive new social programs, grant civil rights to new groups, and win big wars. Being hated by history comes from scandals, losing small wars, and denying civil rights.

I mean you guys know that if Bush woke up tomorrow and just wanted the history books to love him, he should propose Massive Universal Healthcare. Whether it's right or wrong, every person in the future who relied on it would love him.

Posted by: Tony Vila | Jan 5, 2006 12:33:23 AM

The presidents that are revered the most now were often hated the most while they were in office.

Jimmy Carter should be a saint by now, then.

Posted by: Thlayli | Jan 5, 2006 12:18:57 PM

Jimmy Carter should be a saint by now, then.

Ummm...not really. Rather than hated, Carter was perceived more as an academic dufus with little political ability to get things done. Nice guy, but of little value.

Posted by: Fred Jones | Jan 5, 2006 3:43:55 PM

I fear that, indeed, Bush will be vindicated by history. If it is written by Iranian and mullahs and our Chinese overlords, he might be quite the hero.

Posted by: Magenta | Jan 5, 2006 4:30:28 PM

It's always tempting to say, "history will absolve me," especially when you suspect that it is true, as almost everyone does. Always remember, though, that it is not an argument. It is a conclusion. Perhaps you have an argument which leads to the conclusion, but if that's so, it's the argument that's really the important part.

It seems like the major issue with McCain is getting our fellow Democrats to stop thinking of him as a heroic reformer. I don't think he'll run for president, so this isn't a big issue. Many people still look up to him for the McCain-Feingold issue.

Posted by: Julian Elson | Jan 5, 2006 4:47:49 PM

Bush will be vindicated by history? Get your head out of the Kool Aid Jar. The largest deficit in the history of the planet, pissing all over the constitution, earning the enmity of the entire planet at a time we needed allies (of course, you righties take perverse pleasure in the fact that the world hates us now more than they hate bin Laden), fostering divisiveness at home when we most needed solidarity, destroying proud American scientific achievements for the sake of profit and politics, a misbegotten war that, even if you agreed with its' stated purpose (whichever one of many the Bushies decided was most sell-able any given day), was horribly mismanged through hubris and stupidity, tax breaks that favored the wealthy and put middle class America on the ropes and putting us into deep, deep debt to Saudi Arabia and China, the former a nation that has played us for patsies and the latter an up and coming super power that is just biding its' time to call in these monstrous. How can any one with half a brain look at all this and say that Bush will leave a great legacy?
God, you Bushies are so brain dead.

Posted by: Rob | Jan 6, 2006 12:50:53 AM

No attacks in 4 years.

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