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December 26, 2005
Lotta Lott
Trent Lott's threats of retirement strike me as a fairly obvious ploy:
"Mississippi, one of the reddest of the red Republican states, has not even been on the game board of the Washington analysis forecasting the 2006 Senate outcome. But in Mississippi, prominent Republicans are worried sick. They believe Lott will probably retire. If so, they expect the new senator will be a Democrat, former state Attorney General Mike Moore. Republican politicians in Mississippi believe Rep. Chip Pickering, the likely Republican nominee if Lott does not run, cannot defeat Moore."
That's from Novak's column, which Markos thinks came from Republican bigwigs hoping to scare Lott into running for reelection. My guess is quite the opposite. Nobody knows Mississippi's politics better than Lott. Which is why this story likely came from him -- he's not going to read Novak's column in order to get a read on his constituents. Instead, he's hoping Elizabeth Dole and Bill Frist will scan the piece, fear a loss, beg Lott to run, and accept his eventual reentry into the leadership as the cost of retaining the seat.
December 26, 2005 | Permalink
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Comments
I had considered Mississippi not "the reddest of red states" but a potential swing state, or even a state that could go blue. This was after a study of the 2000 precinct level maps, and Mississippi looked a lot purpler than its neighbors. Probably a function of high black and poor population, urbanization, lack of yuppie tech development and suburbs and exurbs, compared to its neighbours.
Katrina and the opportunistic ethnic cleansing may have altered the demographics, but less than than Louisiana, because the blue precincts are in Jackson and upstate along the River. Democrats should be seriously looking at putting some money there.
Posted by: bob mcmanus | Dec 26, 2005 5:37:27 PM
If I spend a few months in Washington, will I get Ploy-Vision like you have?
Posted by: Neil the Ethical Werewolf | Dec 26, 2005 7:18:37 PM
Yeah -- after three months, the VLWC implants a chip in your head that helps you out.
Posted by: Ezra | Dec 26, 2005 7:46:53 PM
As a native Mississippian, let me add that Lott's lack of fundraising is not, as some want to believe, any indicator to his re-election desires. Two bucks and a poster board are enough for him to win re-election.
That being said, however, don't overlook the simplest reason why Lott may not run: money. Lott is not "wealthy"; his home took a hit from Katrina and will be VERY expensive to rebuild and/or restore to its Bush-mentioned glory; and finally, our old Repub governor Haley Barbour is rich as Croesus. And Lott can't stand that. Haley continues to get richer from his "lobbying firm," especially after Katrina contracts. Lott could really cash in. And his standing in this state could pinch Barbour's personal cash cow.
PS: don't believe the rumors about Chip Pickering. He is not very popular. Mike Moore and possibly Gene Taylor could win for the Dems. Barbour would be the major threat for the Repubs.
Posted by: Ken in MS | Dec 26, 2005 10:52:32 PM
...or maybe Novak just said something out loud that's been traveling in GOP circles for a while now - Lott's retirement has been under discussion for months, and now, when it appears highly likely, it turns out that they don't have a decent candidate. I tend to doubt these "super double secret politica meanings" exercises - politics is really not that hard (an argument about secrecy, by the way, that seems to elude everyone lately - maybe all this super top secret keeping is just dumb). If anything, I think the politics of this is to make Frist and Dole look terrible, thus priming the way for Frist to be replaced as Majority (Minority) Leader and a stronger replacement for Dole at RSCC. I don't think Lott can be convinced to stay, whether he gets a committee or not; I suspect he'd be thrilled to be sitting as a venerable, knowledgeable outsider criticizing the Bushes and hamstringing a successor. And I think the loss of his house and a general sense that things are reversing for Senate Republicans is driving him. I'm also curious about Lott's relationship with Haley Barbour, which seems straned, at least.
Posted by: weboy | Dec 27, 2005 1:38:00 PM
Pickering's a bright young star in the party. I'm thinking Lott knows he's replaceable, thus the need to plant scare stories. Pickering will likely thrash Moore and no one in the GOP will remember that Lott guy.
Posted by: Adam Herman | Dec 29, 2005 12:04:37 AM
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