Sammydammerung

By Neil the Ethical Werewolf

Thanks to Harry Reid’s pwnage of Bill Frist, we’re facing Bush’s most extreme nominee with the filibuster in hand and a credible threat to throw the Senate into chaos if the Republicans go nuclear. I won’t go into the many problems with Strip Search Sammy here. I’ll give the political argument that if it comes down to a question of filibustering or not filibustering, a filibuster we must have.

If we bring Alito down with a filibuster, the next nominee is likely to be more moderate. With his approval ratings in the 30s, Bush can’t hope to keep throwing right-wing nominees into filibusters and then beat us with the obstructionism argument in the 2006 election. He’ll probably meet with Harry Reid and find himself some Reid-approved moderate without Miers’ incompetence issues so that he can get the whole Supreme Court mess off his hands. Depending on how this goes, we may be able to generate another Miers-like fissure in the Republican base.

Mark Schmitt says that “one thing is for sure: the prospect of a "final showdown" in which Alito is confirmed by the Nuclear tactic is just not going to happen in a Senate effectively run by Harry Reid.” Lots of Republicans who have a stake in Senate business moving forward don’t want to blow up the filibuster and face Reid’s Senate-paralyzing retaliation. So if we can get the filibuster going, the Republicans won't stop it. Alito will be defeated, and a more moderate nominee will take his place.

Even if Schmitt is wrong and the Republicans find 50 Senators willing to go nuclear, Reid's retaliation will be awesome enough in itself. More procedural moves like Reid's closed session on WMD intelligence this week that at once tie up Senate business and point to Republican malevolence will be greatly appreciated. Given that in many cases we'll be interrupting some very bad business (like this week's awful budget reconciliation package) more disruption would be something to cheer. Matt Yglesias has argued that liberals are better off long-term with the filibuster destroyed, since it might prevent us from passing nice social programs someday. While the Republicans are, as I understand it, planning only to eliminate judicial filibusters, it's not clear that the impact of a move like this can be contained.

Getting 41 Democrats to stand up and filibuster will, most likely, be the major hurdle. If you’re lucky enough to have a Democratic Senator or even a moderate Republican, it might be time for a phone call or a letter telling them that Strip Search Sammy must be stopped, by any means necessary. Addresses and phone numbers can be found here. With my Pennsylvania registration and cell phone number, I’m going to give Arlen Specter’s office a ring right now. (Sure, he’s not likely to join the filibuster, but we want him on our side.)