Incompetence Dodges, Flip-Flops, and Other Political Dance Moves

By Neil the Ethical Werewolf

Sam and Matt say that it’s wrong to cast the Iraq war as a good idea ruined by Bush administration incompetence. They’re right about this – clear thinking about the deep ethnic divisions in Iraq, our insufficient troop deployment, and the difficulty of instituting democracy at gunpoint should have convinced intelligent observers that invading Iraq would be a very bad idea. I’d add that the opportunity costs of invasion – in terms of the good that could have been done with those hundreds of billions of dollars and the American military (stopping the genocide in Sudan, perhaps?) ought to be reckoned into the calculus as well. I hope their piece forces unrepentant liberal-hawk commentators to drop their bad arguments and face responsibility. However, a whole different set of issues come into play when we talk about the positions that Democratic politicians should adopt.

If it turns out that the incompetence-dodge position is strategically best, I don’t mind Democratic leaders embracing it. Here I imagine that different moves are right for different Democrats. Whether they blame this disaster on incompetent execution or on the complete dumbness of the decision to invade, what’s important is that Democrats will use their power to pull the plug on it once Bush is gone. Those who haven't come around yet are going to, after America spends three more years floundering in Iraq. Until then, there’s nothing to do but try to destroy the Republicans' foreign policy reputation. Bashing Republican incompetence is a fine way to do this, and if it’s what Joe Biden is minded to do, let’s hear him do it loudly.

I worry, though, that the residue of Bush’s flip-flop attacks on Kerry may have made politicians unwilling to change their positions on issues when the facts clearly turn against them. If you’re worried about being called a flip-flopper, the incompetence dodge looks like a nice move. You can maintain that you called the right play, but that Bush threw the interception. You’re still free to take pride in your own pigheadedness and claim that you haven’t made a mistake.

Now, I don’t know how potent the flip-flop attack is in general, and there may be good ways to change your position so that people can’t hit you with it. But if the flip-flop attack has real power, it’s a very bad thing for our political culture. One of the ways to get rid of bad policy is for people to change their minds and cancel the bad policies. A system of norms that prevents people from doing this is something worth bemoaning.