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September 15, 2005

How to Anger Friends and Lose Influence With People

You know, I never wanted Bolton -- I don't trust folks with such aggressive facial hair -- but I figured he'd be on a short leash, a neutered sop to the neocons. And so watching him bark, growl, and tear through the UN Reform process, killing a document we should have wanted, derailing progress on nonproliferation that we benefit from...It doesn't brighten my mornings.

But even so, I still believe him symptom rather than cause. Bolton's a boil on the ass of our foreign policy, a hacking cough and chunky phlegm afflicting our Diplomatic Corps. No fun, to be sure, but not the underlying problem, either. For that, you should look to the accelerating worthlessness of America's signature on a treaty. Examples range from the big, like our split from the ICC and Kyoto Accords, all the way down to the small, like our gleefully illegal rejection of NAFTA's rulings on softwood. This is from The Economist:

RARELY are Canadians as angry with their American neighbours as when they are squabbling over timber. Their 20-year trade dispute might have come to an end last month, when Canada won a supposedly definitive ruling under the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA) ordering the United States to drop its punitive duties on Canadian softwood and refund around $4 billion already collected. But the United States refused to comply and, later in the month, won support for its stance from the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Outraged, Canada has cut off talks with the United States on the issue.

American timber firms complain that Canadian rivals, who cut trees mostly from publicly owned forests, pay artificially low cutting fees that amount to an unfair subsidy. Three years ago, the United States imposed hefty duties on Canadian lumber, prompting Canada to complain under NAFTA. After several rounds of sparring, a NAFTA panel last year made a “final” decision to reject the United States' case.

However, the United States launched an “extraordinary challenge”, claiming the procedure had been flawed and that one of the panel's members had a conflict of interest. Nevertheless, NAFTA's extraordinary-challenge committee last month upheld the panel's final verdict. When the United States rejected even this ruling, rancour exploded in Canada, and members of Parliament started baying for retaliation.
[...]
Look, says the United States, the NAFTA and WTO rulings conflict, so let's just negotiate a compromise. There's no conflict, snorts Canada, because the WTO's ruling has no legal force whereas NAFTA, being a treaty between the countries, is legally enforceable. Indeed, it intends to ask the United States' own Court of International Trade to make its government obey the NAFTA ruling. Meanwhile, Canada also plans an information campaign telling other countries seeking trade deals with the United States what it has learned about the value of its signature on a treaty.

Excellent. We're such unreconstructed cheats that other countries can actually threaten us with information campaigns dedicated to exposing our bad faith. Maybe we can get a verse about that into the national anthem somewhere.

Update: Matt makes some good points on why, in addition to being bad diplomacy and worse precedent, this is really poor economics as well.

September 15, 2005 in Foreign Policy | Permalink

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Comments

Another reason why corporate written trade agreements like NAFTA, CAFTA, etc. are a bad idea. They lead to more conflict between nations not less.

Posted by: la | Sep 15, 2005 10:41:06 AM

The situation is worse than the Economist article reports. Now even the Canadian Conservatives who negotiated NAFTA are having serious second thoughts about it. The leader of the opposition Conservative Party is also up in arms over this.

Posted by: Robert McClelland | Sep 15, 2005 10:46:09 AM

I'm hopeful that the Canadians just withdraw from NAFTA. That is probably wishful thinking, since BushCo will bring out the US WMD's of corporate pressure on Canada, hurtful retaliation, and anti-Canada rhetoric (ala anti-France). We will soon learn that Canada is behind al-Queda, sells fake maple syrup, and threatens US security enough to deserve a really long wall like Mexico and Israel.

Information campaigns exposing US fickleness (and lawlessness) are helpful, but something more dramatic and practical is needed to underline the BushCo 'my way or the highway' approach to both domestic and international relations.

Posted by: JimPortlandOR | Sep 15, 2005 12:16:10 PM

"I don't trust folks with such aggressive facial hair"

Uh-oh.

Posted by: bob mcmanus | Sep 15, 2005 9:19:47 PM

Jim from Portland:

It would be in the US's best interest to settle this soon - without trying to be bullies about it. Canada holds a couple of key trump cards in all of this - oil and natural gas being the biggest.

SO far, the government has resisted calls by the NDP (our social democratic/socialist party which is also our most nationalistic party) to impose an export tax on oil and gas.. but with an election certain in the next 6-9 months, that pressure will increase on the government if the US refuses to budge on this. Canada is the US's #1 supplier of oil and natural gas.. The argument by the NDP is if the US wont abide by agreements.. they'll certainly take notice when the already high cost of energy goes up more. Its a persuasive argument.

A tariff on corn is the other potentially big one. Ethanol plants are big up here - particularly in Ontario... and the corn farners here have complained for years that the US subsidizes their farmers corn. Reports are that the Canadian Govt is also looking at corn as a possible retaliatory move. Think a few farmers and states in the mid-west might notice this?

Basically, the ball is in Bush's court. Hurricane Katrina postponed the day of reckoning, because we still think of the Americans as our friends, and a lot of people up here donated money to the Red Cross and our government has sent ships with aid and other help. but that good will will not last for long.. Bush has to just appear on the CBC up here with his smirk and that will set everyone off again.

Posted by: Scott Tribe | Sep 15, 2005 9:37:32 PM

Why doesn't the US fall into the ocean?

Because Canada sucks

Posted by: Fred Jones | Sep 17, 2005 10:51:10 AM

Very witty Fred: Send that 1 to the Comedy Channel and see if they'll hire you.

Canada didnt start this trade problem, Fred..your government did when it showed its signature on a treaty wasnt worth the paper it was written on.

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