Ezra Klein: You Like Us, You Really Like Us!

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June 14, 2005

You Like Us, You Really Like Us!

Interesting numbers in this Survey USA poll of ever Senator in the country. Of the top 10 most popular, a full eight are Democrats. Of the 10 least popular, eight are Republicans. If you restrict it to only Senators up for reelection next year, seven of the 10 most popular are Democrats (I'm counting Jeffords as a Democrat here) and, again, seven of the 10 least popular are Republicans. Odd synchronicities, really.

That's a party without many heroes. More to the point, the most popular members of the Republican caucus are the non-Republicans: Collins, Snowe and McCain. Democrats, conversely, have full-fledged partisans up there: Obama, Conrad, Leahy, Dorgan, Inouye, Rockefeller, and Reed. If you compare the party leaders, Reid is 46th in popularity, with a 57% approval rating, while Frist is all the way down at #74, with an anemic 51% approval rating. Rick Santorum and Ohio's Mark DeWine are the nation's least-liked incumbents up for reelection while Frank Lautenberg and John Cornyn are the most disliked senators period.

The question, I guess, is whether we're seeing a crop of Republican senators that nobody likes, or the diffused affects of a Republican party Americans are losing patience with. In any case, the numbers looks good, both for our senators facing reelection and the vulnerability of theirs. Incidentally, Bill Frist is probably smart to retire this term. In the last month his ratings have dropped 7%, from 58% to 51%. Looks like Tennessee is tired of watching him run for president from the Senate floor.

June 14, 2005 in Polls | Permalink

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» Popularity Contest from Oliver Willis
Interesting observation by Ezra that of the 10 most popular senators, 8 are Dems, and partisans at that - while the more popular Republicans are the ones derided by “the base” as RINOs. The problem is Democrats seem unable to translate t... [Read More]

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Comments

Isn't it also possible that one side is favored by the press?

Even if one believes the press is balanced ideologically, we know that the press in many instances favors the underdog, and as a minority in both houses of Congress and without control of the Presidency, that is certainly the case for national Democrats.

Posted by: Dave Justus | Jun 14, 2005 4:10:08 PM

I suspect it has less to do with any type of press bias and more to do with Borg-like consistency of GOP today. Since they march so much in lock step with their leadership, their constituents are wondering who is really looking out for their interests.
Not to mention that Democrats in red states with even a taint of unpopularity have been ruthlessly purges by now.

Posted by: Chris | Jun 14, 2005 4:15:57 PM

McCain is a republican. He has an independent mouth, but not an independent vote.

Posted by: Poppy McCool | Jun 14, 2005 4:41:13 PM

it'll be interesting if Ohio finds someone decent to run against DeWine. It will be a good test of HoHo's leadership to get that seat back.

Posted by: Goldberg | Jun 14, 2005 5:02:04 PM

This is extremely heartening news, especially given the way the national press treats Republicans as the party of bold, principled ideas and Democrats as the party of wishy-washy defenses of the status quo. I'm the kind of person that constantly asks myself whether I'm too optimistic about the Democrats' future, but looking at this chart is instructive. The only ultra-partisan, radical Republicans above 52% approval are in states where Democrats have no hope anyway (Mississippi, Alabama, Idaho, Utah), plus that David Vitter guy. Jim DeMint is at 49%. Richard Burr is at 42%. Tennessee's two elder statesmen are at 51% and 52%. Georgia's two are at 50% and 51%. Jon Kyl is at 49%. Most surprisingly, Oklahoma's twin maniacs are both below 45%.

Of the 24 senators with approval 50% or lower, 19 are Republicans.

Wake-up call to the Democrats: Two-thirds of America hates Congress! Voters in Arizona, Missouri, New Hampshire, Kentucky, Ohio, Florida, Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Nevada, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Alaska, Kansas, and even freaking Georgia are severely dissatisfied with their own Republican senators! Try to connect these things together!

I can see it now...by Election Day 2006 three-quarters of America will hate Congress, but Rove will sidestep this problem by successfully convincing them that Congress is controlled by Democrats.

Posted by: Cryptic Ned | Jun 14, 2005 5:06:27 PM

And Obama's approval is the highest of the 100. Damn it, just run him in 08. :) Nah, just kidding.

Posted by: Tim | Jun 14, 2005 6:31:09 PM

Turning disapproval of Repubs into votes for the Dems is the trick - one the Dems haven't learned to do.

Part of the reason is surely that come voting time, Repubs do some things very well:

- Pour whatever it takes in money into close races
- Develop social/religious/national security hot-button advertising attacks on opponents, including lies, misrepresentations and character assassinations
- Get out the highly partisan Red vote among the religious and social conservatives
- Work hard to reduce voing by Dems, inlcuding voting manipulation.
- Do a far better job of organizing their messages day to day and controlling the media spin.

Note how many of these are negative campaigning? Maybe Dems just don't (and can't) do negative attacks. We have to be more than 'liked' to win.

I've never heard of a Bully that was defeated by being nice to them or running away or trying to compromise.

Posted by: JimPortlandOR | Jun 14, 2005 6:34:47 PM

2002 and 2004 showed the GOP has reversed the previous Democratic advantage in the processes that turn out the vote. This is just as important an issue for Dean to address as any other. If you look back especially to the Senate races in those years you find a plethora of races that were literal toss-ups or at least very close on election day (MN, MO, NC, GA, CO, NC, FL, OK, AK, SD, KY) that the Democrats lost. We take 5 of those, we have a tied Senate. 2006 will be the same way; the Senate contests have thus far broken our way, but that's not enough. We have to operate on the assumption that the GOP ground game is superior and needs to be bested.

Posted by: SamAm | Jun 14, 2005 8:32:57 PM

what do people have against frank lautenberg? i like him; he's not running for re-election so he doesn't give a shit about political retribution, and he's been more active than jon corzine (who's going to be our next governor here in the garden state) in calling out this administration on their lies, etc.

honestly i just don't get why he would be so unpopular. the train station they named after him is pretty nice too.

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