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April 12, 2005
Progressive Econ
Brad Plumer's thoughtful, Galbraith-inspired post on the Democrat's lack of economic vision deserves a response and, indeed, a discussion. So I hope the blogosphere's economist-kings (bet Plato never saw them coming) will pick up on it. Until they do, I will.
To start, I think Brad's got two things going on here. One is the need for an economic vision, and the other is a need for a set of policy principles that get us there. And I thin, at times, that Brad conflates the two. As I read Neoconomy, conservatives want to keep growth roaring along and prices stable because the advancement of business is an end in and of itself. So pro-growth policies aren't the vision, they're the means. That's because the right sees an almost Platonic good in productivity increases, unending innovation, higher profits, etc, etc. So the success of business, for them, is the end.
The opposite would be the so-called "European Dream", which prizes quality-of-life far above efficiency of business and has shaped an economy that, while somewhat less vibrant, is immensely more pleasant. If you want the starkest statement of the difference, it's that since 1980, average hours worked has fallen in France while increasing 40% in America. 40%! The French economy would be in better shape if all their people worked 40% more hours, but their people wouldn't be as happy, and so it wouldn't serve their economic vision.
What should Democrats have? Not quite sure. But I think it should oppose further increases in the workweek. If I were to hazard a guess -- and I think this is more general than what Brad's fishing for -- we want a worker-centric economy, which means an economy that's aimed at creating a positive market for labor. What we've got now is this race to the bottom where shrinking pensions, costs that are rising quicker than incomes, and skyrocketing health care premiums are trapping folks in jobs they don't like and forcing new entrants in the labor market to take poor-quality positions (WalMart). Looks to me that traction can be found in shaking the landscape up a bit so workers occupy a better bargaining ground. Government guaranteed health care and pension benefits offer that by untying benefits from employers. Universal day care helps too. So too would, asset building programs. That, at least, is a vision for what the government's role in shaping our ideal economy should be, and I think it offers a compelling counterargument to the conservatives while fitting nicely with our policy priorities.
Now, I think Brad might be looking for a debate focused more on the innards of fiscal policy -- Full employment and deficit spending and all that. I'm not entirely sure that's the right order of this. We need to decide what kind of economywe want to see and then figure out how to make it manifest. That, to me, was the lesson of Neoconomy and for that matter, much of the literature on modern conservatism. They decided what they valued -- limited government, enhanced economic liberty, rocking private sector -- and went after it. Turned out their methods didn't quite work, but that wasn't so much the fault of their methods as their politicians -- they had the courage to talk about starving the government but could never actually pull the feeding tube. Progressives, somewhat paradoxically, have the opposite issue -- it can be tough to argue for the expansion of government, but it's damn possible to do once in power. So let's figure out our Utopian economy, be it the worker empowered to traverse the post-industrial landscape or something else, and go from there.
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Comments
I think he's actually saying that the Dems need a macro vision, and then once you have that, the policy pieces fall into place.
Posted by: praktike | Apr 12, 2005 2:10:16 PM
Right, but I think what he's talking about are less macro visions than policy pieces of a macro vision.
Posted by: Ezra | Apr 12, 2005 2:15:22 PM
To clarify, he's got a lot of macroeconomic policies running around in his post, but I don't think they add up to a vision of what our economy should look like, which is what the right has. Neoconomy, I think, is very persuasive in arguing that Republicans know where they want to go and have a very set path on how to get there. But just because they pursue tax cuts and regulation-busting with all sorts of moral fervor, doesn't mean that that they just want an economy with low taxes and few regulations. Their vision is a business-centric economy that allows innovation and total competition to flourish. Now, I don't think that works (total competition, for instance, generally creates monopolies, which is why you need countervailing powers [speaking of Galbraith]), but it's the end motivating their means. We need to decide how to order our ideal economy and then figure out the macro policies that get us there.
Posted by: Ezra | Apr 12, 2005 2:19:05 PM
Aha. Now I getcha.
Posted by: praktike | Apr 12, 2005 2:54:51 PM
I think we have an economic vision: rapid GDP growth, stable prices, low unemployment, income growth throughout the distribution. I didn't read Plumer's post all that carefully, but I was somewhat offended that he didn't mention the obvious fact that "liberal" economic policies achieve those things; conservative policies don't. He successfully kowtows to the correct observation that conservatives don't live up to their own policies, but frankly I'm not too surprised at that since their own policies don't work in theory or in practice and since they happen to be in power, they've got to cobble together something on the fly that amounts to tax cuts plus corruption. It's no accident that Bush's economic policy is a shambles.
Economics is our game. It used to be theirs, admittedly, but it isn't anymore. They are OBVIOUSLY wrong.
Posted by: Marshall | Apr 12, 2005 3:53:58 PM
Responding more directly to you, Ezra, given the overall goals I enumerated above here's the macro policies to get there:
1. The government cannot do all the things the electorate demands with its tax take only 16% of GDP. Therefore, taxes need to be raised, and consequently fiscal policy less expansionary.
2. To counteract the fiscal contraction, more use must be made of monetary policy. We can't have these three-year periods of increasing, then decreasing, then increasing interest rates. It must be more discretionary.
3. Somewhat uncharacteristically, I think anti-trust and competition policy really do hurt the economy by interfering with creative destruction. They should be retracted.
4. (3) would result in greater corporate profits; in order to spread those throughout the distribution, labor unions should be restored to vibrancy. The Taft Hartley Act should be repealed.
5. Also in reaction to (3), the regulatory state should be strengthened, especially in environmental policy.
I am confident that the combination of those policies would unleash growth and direct it in the ways we liberals desire. We need to remember what can be done without the government: simply having unions as stronger players in the private sector would eliminate the need for lots of stuff we would otherwise want the government to do. Likewise, we should be clear about the things business does that we don't like. Anti-competitive behavior is not high on my list; environmental destruction is. A huge monopoly rendered benign by the combination of unionization and regulation is perfectly fine to me.
Posted by: Marshall | Apr 12, 2005 4:06:06 PM
My observations are that Conservative are most interested in increasing the size of the pie, and Liberals are most interested in making sure everyone has the same size of slice.
I view the fact that the pie slices are getting more and more unequal unimportant if everyone is getting a bigger slice of pie.
Now, If (and this can certainly be argued) the pie is getting bigger but some people are still getting smaller and smaller peices I think their is a problem, and more 'Liberal' methods may need to be implimented.
It is interesting to note though that while on the one hand France is being lauded, if the 'Bush Economy' had numbers like France has (1% or so GDP growth, 9% unemployment) it would be considered absolutely horrible and proof that our economy was in total disrepair.
Posted by: Dave Justus | Apr 12, 2005 4:44:27 PM
Don't see how France has to do with the conservative bullshit you're peddling, but that doesn't stop Republicans from talking about it endlessly. No matter.
Conservatives have no interest in increasing "the pie," or if they did they have no idea how. For instance, they often argue that increased savings leads to growth. If they actually read the damn growth model they profess to believe:
Solow, R. (1956) "A contribution to the theory of economic growth." Quarterly Journal of Economics 70 (1) 65-94.
It is crystal clear that taking neo-classical assumptions about production technology as given, an increased rate of saving does not increase growth in the long run.
Republicans have snatched away Professor Solow's model and trumpeted it since. However, Solow never argued that his growth model with its neo-classical production was the end of growth theory. No, let's go to the tape.
Romer, D. (1989) "Human Capital and Growth: Theory and Evidence." National Bureau of Economic Research Working Papers 3173 gives evidence for the long-term contribution of human capital gains to economic growth, reconcilable with an augmented Solow model of neo-classical production plus exogenous labor-augmenting technical change. (Mankiw, Romer, and Weil 1991 have more.)
And then we come to endogenous technical change, the nail in the coffin of neo-classical production. Romer, P. (1986) "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth." Journal of Political Economy 94 (5) 1002-1037 propeses the eminently plausible increasing returns to scale in endogenous technology, based on the Stiglitzian model at the micro level of production, with two sectors, the intermediate goods sector monopolistically competitive, with profits coming through the output sector in the form of profits on new technology.
Have I convinced you that Republicans don't know shit about increasing the pie? There's more if you want it.
Posted by: Marshall | Apr 12, 2005 5:06:46 PM
Um, Dave Justus, perhaps you haven't noticed, but real wages are now lagging inflation. Ergo, the pie is shrinking.
Posted by: praktike | Apr 12, 2005 8:02:06 PM
I am aware that wages are lagging inflation. That is a matter of concern, but I think it needs to continue a bit longer before it becomes really troubling. Inflation and Wages, while linked, don't change with the same speed usually.
It also of course does not mean that the pie is shrinking. Since there are a variety of sources of income beyond wages, it would be possible for the pie (the overall economy) to grow and for wages to shrink. Indeed, that would be a traditional progressive critique, the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer.
Overall, I think we actually see the rich getting richer and the poor getting richer at a signifigantly slower rate. While I have sympathy for those who say this situation isn't fair, I am worried that their prescriptions for fixing the problem would end up with the Rich getting poorer and the poor staying the same (or even getting poorer themselves.)
Posted by: Dave Justus | Apr 13, 2005 10:17:32 AM
Okay, well if you say the poor are getting richer, then it must be true. So sorry I doubted that, because you know, all evidence shows the contrary: rising poverty, stagnant or declining real wages at the bottom of the distribution, decreased healthcare coverage. But whatever--actual facts never worried conservatives too much.
What exactly about the "prescriptions" that those of us who care about vastly increased income inequality on top of an unsustainable economic trajectory are offering would result in a sudden stagnation at the top of the distribution. I enumerated an economic policy in the discussion above. Care to comment?
Posted by: Marshall | Apr 13, 2005 11:12:33 AM
I am aware of those problems. Overall though, I still believe that quality of life for the poor is increasing. One simple way of looking at this is the fact that the biggest nutrition problem the poor have in America today is obsesity. While that is a serious issue, on the whole it isn't a horrible issue to have.
I have spent some time in third world countries and seen true poverty up close. We don't largely don't have those issues here.
I was, in my original comment attempting to define a general philosophical viewpoint difference. I think that the follow-up posts have added weight to the fact that the difference exists.
As I think my original comment showed, I prefer a somewhat balanced approach. We need to increase the size of the pie and make sure that everyone recieves the benefits of that increase.
Marshall did enumerate an economic policy, although I think it is far from being main-stream progressive thought. I didn't critique it specifically because in truth the larger philosophical view point was the point of the original post and is more interesting to me.
I will comment though on his first point.
I don't see why exactly the fact that the government cannot do everything that the people ask for on 16% of GDP automatically means we should have more taxation. It is possible that people are asking for things that are contrary to their own best interest. That is one reason we have a Republic and not a direct Democracy (I am not sure that has worked out as well as was envisioned though.) I certainly agree that we shouldn't spend more than we bring in, but I think it is fairly obvious that there is a limit on how much the government can tax without hurting the overall economy and making everyone worse off.
Now, it can certainly be argued that that number is higher than 16% of GDP. The structure of Marshalls arguement though would imply that the number doesn't actually matter. If the people demand items that cost in excess of 50% of GDP, apparently Marshall would advocate increasing taxes take to above 50% of GDP. That seems to be obviously foolish.
I expect that Marshall would agree that that was too much taxation, but he doesn't give any principles to explain what too much taxation is.
Posted by: Dave Justus | Apr 13, 2005 12:13:37 PM
I could draw a very simple diagram that would show the ideal amount of taxation. Picture this: on the x-axis, the marginal income tax increasing to 100%, and on the y-axis, the utility in society. There would be two functions relating the tax rate to utility. One would be based on a social welfare function that maximizes average utility (taking into account that diminishing marginal utility means the marginal dollar will be most appreciated at the bottom of the distribution), and would show utility as it relates to taxation increasing, then decreasing in an inverse-U. The other would show the same shape, but the peak would be further along the tax axis. The first function is U (average), and the second is U (Rawls).
The reason the shape is an inverse U is that the labor disincentive effect of marginal taxation skews individual choices as taxes increase. Therefore, for every utility-unit gained by redistributing government revenue, some utility is lost because individual choices for labor supply deviate from the no-tax situation. When the labor supply effect offsets the redistribution effect, the total utility in society begins to fall. In the Rawls case, what matters is the utility of the least-well-off person, so even after society as a whole becomes less well off more redistribution would still make the poorest person more well off.
The above does not take into account the things that governments can do with revenue that individuals can't, such as build schools. (Though you could make the story much more opaque by trying to argue schools into it.) I suppose the philosophical argument you want to be having is between the two utility functions, and that's fine for ideal chat after I'm already drunk. But when we're talking about making policy, that stuff's irrelevant given the way things are now.
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