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March 12, 2005

Iron Candidate: Battle African-American

Political Wire reports that Paul Sarbanes is getting out of the legislating business. It's too bad; Sarbanes is a very good Senator. He's a strong liberal (he voted against Iraq, both tax cuts, and Ashcroft), but he works harder behind the scenes than Barbara Boxer does in front of the cameras. (Don't get me wrong: I love Barb. But she's not exactly a workhorse.) He was a lawyer, a Rhodes Scholar, and an economic adviser to Kennedy. I'll be sad to see him go.

In terms of replacing The Sarbanator, both parties have deepish benches. For the Dems, there's Reps. Elijah Cummings and Chris Van Hollen, and Montgomery County Exec. Doug Duncan. Republicans have Reps. Roscoe Bartlett and Wayne Gilchrest, '04 Senate candidate and "The Hobbit" character E.J. Pipkin, and maybe even Gov. Bob Ehrlich. But there are two candidates who would produce by far the most interesting race: Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, and recently-retired NAACP President (and former Democratic Congressman) Kweisi Mfume.

For those unfamiliar, Lt. Gov. Steele is currently securing Colin Powell's vacated title of The Republican Black Guy. (Powell left after realizing that "compassionate conservatism" means hugging black people, not listening to them.) Unlike Powell, he is full-throatedly embracing the GOP's "compassionate conservative" message. Also unlike Powell, he is deeply politically ambitious. He represents the vanguard of the GOP's new minority strategy, which relies essentially on the claim that Democrats take black people for granted and have stopped pursuing policies that really help them. (Republicans, apparently, at least have the courage to openly not care.) They've also aggressively pushed a conservative social message, which resonates even with the black community's strongest economic liberals. Obviously, I'm not a fan, but it's an argument that we increasingly need to take seriously, especially if we're ever going to win in the South again. Next to their their push to recruit Latinos (which I suspect is somewhat exclusive to Bush the Texan), politicians like Steele represent the GOP's strongest attempt to cut into our traditional minority coalition. And, unlike the NDN's great outreach with Latinos, we're not doing a whole lot to address it.

Mfume, of course, represents everything opposed to this. There is no organization that more thoroughly embodies the old-school coalition that blacks have with the Democratic Party than the NAACP. Mfume was the one who excoriated Joe Lieberman for failing to speak to the NAACP during the primaries. He has worked to combat the GOP's taken-for-granted arguments, and to moderate his image, going so far as to nominate Condi Rice for one of his Image Awards. But basically, Mfume represents precisely the consensus that people like Steele are out to challenge.

That's what would make this challenge so epic: It would be the first electoral showdown, as far as I can tell, between the emerging Republican message for minorities, and the traditional Democratic strategy. This could have happened in IL or GA, but neither race was competitive enough for a real dialogue to develop between the candidates. MD is also an ideal place for something like this to go down. The state has a strong black community, but they don't vote as a bloc: Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley won a primary against two black Democrats with 53% of the vote. O'Malley has also given MD Democrats an unusually strong posture on Homeland Security, making it something close to a fair fight between Democratic economic liberalism and Republican social conservatism (accompanied, of course, by their good friend Cultural Resentment). Both candidates are eloquent speakers who are generally held in high regard, at least by their respective ideological camps. It'd be a fistfight.

Steele/Mfume is a battle I'd love to see. I'm not sure we'd win it, but it's a chance I'd gladly take to see this tired "they take you for granted" meme put to bed in an official, electoral way.

- Daniel A. Munz

March 12, 2005 in Elections | Permalink

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Let's NOT run the former NAACP President who changed his name to "Kweisi Mfume" for Senate in a border state that came very close to seceding during the Civil war, please? [Read More]

Tracked on Mar 12, 2005 5:01:49 PM

Comments

It wont only be Steele.

There's likely also to be Ken Blackwell for Ohio gov and Lynn Swann for Pennslyvania gov.

As the Dems have 80-90% of the black vote shouldn't they also have 80-90% of the best black candidates?

Unless of course the best blacks are GOP supporters.

Posted by: Boethius | Mar 12, 2005 4:01:35 PM

Boethis, my point was that it would be interesting to see a new vanguard black GOPer run against an old-school black Dem. I don't think either Blackwell or Swann will face black opponents, and certainly not ones as tied to the old Democratic consensus as a former leader of the NAACP. I didn't mean to suggest that Steele was the first black Republican ever to seek elective office; he's obviously not.

Posted by: Daniel A. Munz | Mar 12, 2005 4:06:48 PM

BTW I make it 3 GOP Senate seats at risk - TN, PN and RI and 11 Dem - WS, FL, NE, ND, MI, MN, NJ, WV, WI, MD and VT (Jeffords counted as a Dem).

Just think there might be 65 GOP Senators next year - let the nightmares begin.....

Posted by: Boethius | Mar 12, 2005 4:08:35 PM

I accept your point Daniel - it's an interesting discussion you've started.

Wasn't it Mfume though who got into trouble at the NACCP for suggesting that they have a dialogue with the GOP?

Posted by: Boethius | Mar 12, 2005 4:12:02 PM

I must say also that they're very excited by Steele at conservative blogs. He is regarded as being a major factor behind Erhlich's victory.

Posted by: Boethius | Mar 12, 2005 4:14:01 PM

Daniel,
You wrote,
"Steele/Mfume is a battle I'd love to see. I'm not sure we'd win it, but it's a chance I'd gladly take to see this tired "they take you for granted" meme put to bed in an official, electoral way."

Please, please, PLEASE, banish from your mind any thoughts that Steele has the remotest chance of winning this seat. It is not going to happen. No Republican will win this seat.

Maryland is pretty near the safest damn seat that Dems have, these days; the only way Md. Dems lose statewide races is when they're run with absolutely stunning incompetence (e.g., Kathleen Kennedy Townsend's Gubernatorial bid; hence our current, unfortunate, R-Gov.).

Duncan is already running for Gov. and will not jump ship - he's going to win, beating Martin O'Malley in the primary. If MoM is smart, he'll jump now and run for the Senate seat, but I don't know if that happens, esp. if Cummings (who I also doubt will run - if he does, it's his job for the taking [same with Steny Hoyer; also same feeling that he will not jump in the race]) throws his support behind Kwesi.

I'm rooting for Mfume, m'self. A Sen. Kwesi Mfume would be damn good for Maryland, and damn good for this country.

Posted by: jkd | Mar 12, 2005 4:47:13 PM

Steele/Mfume is a battle I'd love to see. I'm not sure we'd win it, but it's a chance I'd gladly take to see this tired "they take you for granted" meme put to bed in an official, electoral way.

Adding on to this, its possible that Ohio's gubernatorial race may feature Columbus mayor (and Democrat with a clue) Michael Coleman versus Ken Blackwell.

Posted by: D. | Mar 12, 2005 6:07:26 PM

Doug Duncan beat O'Malley in the priamry?

Duncan is down 20 points to O'Malley!

Not to mention O'Malley is up on Ehrlich and Duncan is down on Ehrlich in the polls.

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Posted by: peter.w | Sep 15, 2007 5:26:34 AM

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