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October 16, 2007

Iran and Diplomacy

Matt makes all sorts of necessary points here:

Vladimir Putin's warnings against military action against Iran deserve to be taken very seriously...people need to understand that the post-strike diplomatic environment is going to be much more important to the future of the Iranian nuclear program than is any damage that bombing Iran with our on-the-table options might or might not do. If Russia decides to just send some scientists with schematics and materiel over to Iran and show them how to build a nuclear bomb, then -- bam -- nuclear bomb.

Conversely, at the moment not only is Iran under some diplomatic pressure to stop short of weaponizing, many countries around the world are taking direct measures to prevent the Iranians from just easily going and buying the stuff they need. Insofar as an unprovoked American military attack convinces other countries that the real dangerous lunatics live in DC rather than Teheran, countries around the world could cut back on their vigilance and make it much easier for an Iranian nuclear program to succeed.

Right. The more our aggressiveness unsettles the world, the more they'll seek curtail our hegemony, create states able to asymmetrically "balance" our threat, unite against our interests, and throw down markers signaling that we can't take international dominance for granted. Put another way: The more we scare the world, the less they'll cooperate on vanquishing countries we perceive as threatening.

October 16, 2007 | Permalink

Comments

So you see, Bush really is in favor of a worldwide confederation of democracies, and is cleverly slipping this agenda past his 'base' by stimulating this world wide political development with a mixture of bellicose ineptness administered to one country or another in classic waterboarding style.

Posted by: serial catowner | Oct 16, 2007 2:29:55 PM

Iran must conform to its nonproliferation obligations and must not be permitted to build or acquire nuclear weapons. If Iran does not comply with its own commitments and the will of the international community, all options must remain on the table.

---Hillary Clinton, Democratic Frontrunner Candidate for President

Posted by: El Viajero | Oct 16, 2007 3:33:48 PM

Once again, El V think's he's being brilliant and insightful, by bringing to our attention something that may have otherwise slipped past us naive lefties.

Once again, El V succeeds in portraying himself as a condescending tool.

Posted by: Captain Goto | Oct 16, 2007 3:57:11 PM

Iran must conform to its nonproliferation obligations

Non-proliferatioan treaty:

Article VI

Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a Treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.

How the US meets its obligations...

Posted by: Phoenician in a time of Romans | Oct 16, 2007 5:06:37 PM

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Posted by: peterwei | Oct 21, 2007 11:31:37 PM

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