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November 18, 2006
Mapmania
by Nicholas Beaudrot of Electoral Math
A 30,000 foot overview of regional changes in seven Senate races:
- Pennsylvania: Central PA loves Bob Casey Jr. Loves him.
- Tennessee: Eastern TN: Still not going to vote for a Democrat, no matter how hard you try.
- Maryland: "Steele Democrats": 5% of the black vote; 1% (or so) of the white vote.
- Montana: Tester cracks iron grip on rural regions; 65% of rural counties still shifting GOP.
- Virginia: Affirmative action and voter suppression: more important than "macaca". Also: NoVa gets bigger & bluer.
- Ohio: Everyone hates Republicans, especially in the Northwest.
- Missouri: Stem cell bill convinces some Catholics to vote R; McCaskill a hit everywhere, especially near Army bases.
- Washington State: Hippies stay home; suburbs don't go blue; What's the Matter With Walla Walla Washington?
Coming soon: results for Arizona, New Jersey. Update: links fixed. Plus, get them all on one page!
November 18, 2006 | Permalink
Comments
Montana link should go here.
Posted by: Matt Weiner | Nov 18, 2006 1:59:16 PM
Watch for turnout in the cities to move upward now that the campaign of urban vote suppression has lost its field general.
For example, in many precincts in Cuyahoga, machines were not ready to start accepting votes for the first 3 hours on election day, requiring a court order to keep polls open ... which meant, of course, both Brown and Strickland were called by the networks before the polls closed in Cleveland.
Posted by: BruceMcF | Nov 18, 2006 2:05:38 PM
Northwest Ohio always hated Republicans, but with the Noe/Taft scandals, everybody else is just catching up.
Posted by: ciocia | Nov 18, 2006 2:17:05 PM
Two theories on Washington: The wine industry yuppification of SE Washington is part of the blue shift, and King and San Juan reached their maximum level of disgust with the Republicans two years early. Just a guess; that Washington map is pretty counterintuitive to me.
Posted by: djw | Nov 18, 2006 4:20:32 PM
Nice to see the GOP contempt for the intellingence of black Democrats in MD fall short.
Posted by: djw | Nov 18, 2006 4:21:44 PM
I could be convinced of the "maximum disgust" theory for San Juan, but not King. Cantwell voted for the war, so if you've got five very loud anti-war activists on San Juan, and they can each convince 100 friends to stay home, that would make a difference. I think we'll need precinct-level data in order to get a really good picture.
Wine industry + shift in the Latino vote might explain part of SE washington. Garfield & Asotin are very white and, I thought, not part of the wine region.
Posted by: Nicholas Beaudrot | Nov 18, 2006 4:47:50 PM
The biggest shift in Washington looks like it was in the 5th CD, where incumbent Cathy McMorris (R) faced a tough challenger this year, Peter Goldmark (I think she dropped from something like a 20+ point landslide in '04 to a single digit win this year).
Posted by: George Tenet Fangirl | Nov 20, 2006 12:03:42 AM
Ahhh, I forgot that the 5th stretched all the way to the Southern border; I thought it stopped at Spokane County.
Posted by: Nicholas Beaudrot | Nov 20, 2006 10:50:37 AM
