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November 26, 2006
Building a Bridge to the 14th Century
(Posted by John.)
Occam's Razor: The overused observation that, all things being equal, the simplest solution tends to be the best one. I dislike the phrase "nowhere is this more true", but Occam certainly applies in spades to energy policy. My favourite example of simplicity triumphing over complexity is solar energy: solar water heaters are vastly more common than photovoltaic solar panels, because they are cheap, rugged, and extremely efficient. (No slander intended against the rapidly growing solar PV market.)
So I read with great interest a post by one of my favourite energy bloggers, Engineer-Poet, on running the entire United States on charcoal derived from biomass and crop wastes, while sequestering billions of tons of CO2 per year. It is an extremely detailed, very impressive bit of writing, that I won't hazard to summarize: If you're interested (and you should be) you should go read it.
I'll simply add that it would amuse me to no end if, after all the debates over hydrogen vs. ethanol, solar vs. wind, hybrids vs. biodiesel, we ended up fueling our society and saving the planet using a fuel that would have been common to our ancestors 600, or even 6,000 years ago. And, I suspect, Occam would chuckle with me.
November 26, 2006 | Permalink
Comments
Don't the forecasts show that if we switched to a sequestered coal-based economy, we would just have "Peak Coal" instead of "Peak Oil", and we would buy ourselves two generations at most?
Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD) is your go-to gloom-and doomer on both Peak Oil and Peak Coal.
Posted by: Nicholas Beaudrot | Nov 26, 2006 11:52:54 PM
Occam's razor has nothing to do with policy prescriptions. It has to do with scientific theories - i.e., if two alternative theories both explain a given data set, then the simpler one is likely to be correct.
Posted by: JR | Nov 27, 2006 12:00:39 AM
JR--yes, but colloquially, Occam's Razor is invoked all the time in non-scientific contexts. It is the "Keep It Simple, Stupid" of our age.
(litbrit argues for colloquial language...stop the presses!)
Posted by: litbrit | Nov 27, 2006 12:03:59 PM
For what it's worth, Occam's Razor is about explanations in general, whether scientific or other. It isn't about practical solutions to practical problems, though. Simple may be better there too, but that's a different principle (though one might argue for a connection).
Posted by: Sanpete | Nov 27, 2006 1:20:31 PM
So I read with great interest a post by one of my favourite energy bloggers, Engineer-Poet, on running the entire United States on charcoal derived from biomass and crop wastes, while sequestering billions of tons of CO2 per year.
Just to point out, it is unnecessary--or at least far less necessary--to sequester CO2 that arises from use of biomass and crop wastes, than it is to sequester CO2 that arises from fossil fuels. The CO2 that is released into the atmosphere from biomass and crop wastes will most likely go into the production of subsequent biomass and crops that give rise to the crop wastes, with a net increase in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere of next to zero.
On the other hand, since the carbon in the fossil fuels is (was) locked into the ground, CO2 arising from use of fossil fuels will result in a net increase in the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, the increase depending on the use of the fossil fuels.
BTW, I agree with the other commenters' observations regarding Occam's Razor. The classic example is the following. Suppose that phenomenon A can be explained by elements B, C, and D. Suppose further that someone hypothesizes that phenomenon A is explained by elements B, C, D and space aliens. Occams Razor would suggest that the first explanation is probably correct, because it suffices. But it does not rule out the second explanation.
Posted by: raj | Nov 28, 2006 9:05:35 AM
Far less necessary to sequester bio-carbon? Someone must not be watching the news about Antarctica and Greenland. If we want to keep things like our coastal cities, it looks like we have to bring CO2 down from where it is now. That means everything, bio-carbon included, needs to be sequestered for a while. I calculate it'll take about a century to bring it from 379 ppm back down to 350 ppm.
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