Sizing up the Dark Horses

by Nicholas Beaudrot of Electoral Math

Mark Schmitt's got a nice list of potential 2008 Republican nominees. He carefully sizes up the baggage each one is carrying, showing just how few potential Presidents the party has. Newt Gingrich ends up being the most acceptable choice who can win the nomination. That might be right, and maybe if Al Gore and Newt Gingrich both run, we can all party like it's 1996, but I think Schmitt's list is a little short. Here are some other possible, less-mentioned, Republican Presidential candidates:

• George Pataki. Pro-choice, and, apparently, incredibly boring. Didn't really do much to cut the size of Big Government in New York. Under any situation where he could become the nominee, it would be just as likely to go to ...
   
• Rudy Giuliani. Curiously, in recent primary polling, Giuliani draws the most support from Bush supporters. So if Bush job approval stays above 55% among Republicans, perhaps he'll have a shot. That is, if the primary voters can get past his pro-choice & pro-gay past.
   
• Mike Huckabee. My personal favorite Dark Horse Candidate. Pro-life? Check. Compassionate Conservatism? Check. Making the rounds on national TV outlets? Check. The real question for Huckabee is whether or not he'll be able to get by at a national level without support from anti-tax zealots like Grover Norquist.
• Bill Owens. Once the darling of the anti-tax reactionaries for his support of Colorado's "taxpayers bill of goods rights", Owens was forced to "amend" TaBoR in order to balance the state budget without turning Colorado universities into de facto private schools. That may disqualify him. Plus, family issues might also hurt him in the Republican primaries.
   
• Jeb. I believe his public statements on the matter have a non-denial denial quality to them ("I'm not thinking about running for President"), but I can't find a quote. But the notion of Jeb Bush as president isn't being taken serioulsy. Why? Will the country be afflicted with Bush fatigue in 2008? Will the younger brother be able to point to his record in Florida and show that he's a bipartisan problem solver? Perhaps this possibility ought to be thought about a bit more.
• Haley Barbour. Right after the 2004 election, the Mississippi governor had a decent amount of buzz. He was one of the few politicians who ended up looking good in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. And he has deep connections to the Party's fundraising base from his time as RNC chair.
   

Update: how could I forget? Mr. Team America PAC himself, Tom Tancredo! Surely he has some appeal to Republican primary voters.

Assuming the remaining Republican Governors don't want to run, and the nominee won't be a current or former Bush Cabinet official (John Ashcroft, anyone?), that may be the full list. If I missed anyone, add them in the comments.