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January 19, 2006

Negotiating With Al-Qaeda

Not to show myself a yellow coward who sleeps with a Koran tucked under my pillow, but allow me a thought experiment: what about negotiating with bin-Laden? I mean, this isn't a war of aggression, is it? We're fighting to ensure our safety. And a truce would ensure our safety. So shouldn't we find out what the guy wants?

There's this mass belief among the Daniel Pipes-segment of the right that, whatever al-Qaeda says, their actual goal is to stand atop the carcass of the West while exercising total hegemony over the East. Maybe. But then there are all these moments where al-Qaeda says they'd really just like us off their holy lands and to stop invading Arab countries. And then there's my favored explanation: that bin-Laden wants power but needs support, and thinks pitting us against fairly banal demands for cultural autonomy will make America the sort of enemy he can gain power by attacking. In that way, the invasion of Iraq was a slow, loving footrub for bin-Laden's regional ambitions and desire for personal popularity. Where his original attack destroyed the Taliban and increased sympathy for America, our baffling counteroffensive against a totally uninvolved country proved us exactly the imperialists he'd always asserted.

But hearing his demands and separating the rational from the irrational makes perfect sense. What we need to do, even more than destroy bin-Laden as a biological organism, is deconstruct him as a symbol of pan-Arab resistance. If we could excise his raison d'etre, that'd sap his power base, as any further attacks or mobilizations would be self-interested, rather than nationalistic. Now, maybe he wants every American woman to don the hijab and wed a young Muslim -- that clearly won't work. But it's worth finding out what the ostensible reason for al-Qaeda's existence is, if only to understand the exact manner of monster bin-Laden wants to paint us as to ordinary Arabs. And if he exaggerates our intransigence and offers broadly supportable goals, we can decide whether or not to implement the acceptable ones (unilaterally of course) in order to weaken him.

The alternative -- a massive, high-casualty terror attack a few years down the road -- may well be inevitable, but it certainly shouldn't be our default future, grimly accepted because negotiating with our enemies (much as the Israelis do with the Palestinians, the English did with the IRA, and France did with the Algerian resistance) doesn't make us feel like Great Men of History. If this is a war, we ought to treat it like one, and that involves figuring out why we're waging it. At the end of the day, we have to decide whether we're in this for the glory of the fight or the promise of the peace and act accordingly. Negotiating with al-Qaeda may well be out of the question, but that's the sort of thing that needs to be found out, not simply assumed. And knowing their demands would do much to clarify their PR strategy. Ruling the whole thing out of the question, given the historical inevitability of eventual negotiations, strikes me as a bit silly.

Update: Maybe "negotiate" is the wrong word. I don't want to have him over for tea, just find out what his demands are. But putting it out of the question is just ahistorical. Palestinians and Arabs have done far more to the state of Israel than al-Qaeda has to us, and not only do Israeli leaders negotiate with them, but American leaders tend to broker the talks. As Sharon and his policy of unilateral withdrawal have shown, there are ways of dampening outrage and fulfilling demands while simultaneously drawing lines and showing who's in charge. In any case, I'm not sure I fully buy the argument, but it's worth thinking about, and really shouldn't be so marginalized in public discourse.

January 19, 2006 | Permalink

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» Purported bin Laden tape talks of attacks, truce from Unpartisan.com Political News and Blog Aggregator
Al-Jazeera aired an audiotape purportedly from Osama bin Laden on Thursday, saying al-Qaeda is makin [Read More]

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» Truce? from Minipundit
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Tracked on Jan 20, 2006 10:26:16 PM

Comments

I stongly disagree with that strategy, but, for the sake of arguement, which of Al-Qaida's demands would you agree too? Just leaving Iraq and Afghanistan? Removing all U.S. forces from the Middle East? Non-interference if Al-Qaida types tried to overthrow pro-western muslim nations? The destruction of Israel? Re-Islamization of Al-Andalus? The list could continue.

Posted by: Dave Justus | Jan 19, 2006 4:59:26 PM

maybe we can negotiate with the Islamic right, but negotiating with bin Laden is out of the question at this point. IMO.


Posted by: Sandals | Jan 19, 2006 5:08:55 PM

I'm with Dave on this one. No offense, Ezra, but this is a war against people we don't negotiate with. And as far as your statement re: separating the rational and irrational in his demands? What, precisely, was rational in his pre-9/11 demands?

You are somewhat right about a major point (and a major criticism of our strategy against OBL): we are facing an insurgency by OBL and others against the West and globalization. Unfortunately, insurgencies often gain success due to overreaction by those conducting a counterinsurgency (punitive responses, etc...).

But that issue involves winning the battle in the Arab media (not to mention the European media) and discussions in the Arab world concerning OBL. The fact that we are even struggling against OBL in this regard shows how ham-handed our strategy has been since 9-11 and how much this Administration has set us back.

Posted by: Chris R | Jan 19, 2006 5:13:29 PM

"We, the German Führer and Chancellor, and the British Prime Minister, have had a further meeting today and are agreed in recognizing that the question of Anglo-German relations is of the first importance for our two countries and for Europe.
We regard the agreement signed last night and the Anglo-German Naval Agreement as symbolic of the desire of our two peoples never to go to war with one another again.

We are resolved that the method of consultation shall be the method adopted to deal with any other questions that may concern our two countries, and we are determined to continue our efforts to remove possible sources of difference, and thus to contribute to assure the peace of Europe."
------Neville Chamberlain Sept. 30, 1938

Posted by: Fred Jones | Jan 19, 2006 5:19:55 PM

I think Ezra's point is that by putting Osama's real intentions at the forefront, possible future sympathizers and therefore possible future bin Laden supporters can be convinced that Osama isn't really on their sider, either. Right now, Osama can say choose me or the U.S. and with the way the U.S. is acting through its foreign policy right now, one can see how a Arab Muslim man in the middle east could choose bin laden. But that choice is out of ignorance. I bet that most arabs, most muslims, most any people would say we don't really want to be like Americans but we sure as hell don't want to live under al-quedalike governments either. The problem right now is that America looks like the imperialist agressor and that combined with out history in that region, al-queda and other similar organizations appear to be reactionary movements. In other words, they gain respect for being anti-American, rather than for what they actually are. At least for some. In certain respects it is like a kid having to reluctantly choose brocolli or peas for dinner and choosing peas because the brocolli made him throw up last time 7 nights and the kid decides to try peas not because they taste good but because he wants to stay far away from brocolli.

Not the most cohesive or well-written post, but I'm at work and need to get it out ASAP.

Posted by: steve c | Jan 19, 2006 5:21:47 PM

As E.K. remarks, "What we need to do, even more than destroy bin-Laden as a biological organism, is deconstruct him as a symbol of pan-Arab resistance." But no negotiation could be accomplished without legitimizing Osama Bin Laden. Therefore the whole idea of negotiation is necessarily a nonstarter.

Posted by: alkali | Jan 19, 2006 5:24:26 PM

Stock answer: if we negotiate with him, we're showing everyone else how to approach dealings with the US.
I only bring up this dull, standard argument because you usually use something similar when discussing the Axis of Evil -- we taught Iran to be like North Korea rather than like the Taliban.

But forgetting that -- If this is a war, we ought to treat it like one is exactly the problem; it's not one, and should have been treated as a police action. How do we negotiate with a non-state? Say OBL agrees to something and violates it. What do we do to him that we're not doing now?

Posted by: Allen K. | Jan 19, 2006 5:26:50 PM

Steve gets me right. And maybe negotiation is the wrong word -- but I'd like to find out what his demands are.

Posted by: Ezra | Jan 19, 2006 5:27:56 PM

Does it make me a bad person that whenever I think about negotiating with terrorists I always think of the UN sitaution room scene from Austin Powers: International Man of Mystery?

Arabian UN guy: "It is the policy of the United Nations not to negotiate with terrorists."
Dr. Evil: "oh. ok..... bye."
[clicks remote once, doesn't work; clicks it again, changes to Beavis and Butthead]
Beavis: "Check it out! That chick has three boobs!"
Butthead: "How many butts does she have?"
[Dr. Evil clicks remote again; his live feed reappears. He clicks it a 4th time and the signal drops.]

Posted by: diddy | Jan 19, 2006 5:29:44 PM

I suspect you could look at OBL as more a religious leader than political leader, and his demands as more eschatological than practical. There plenty of fanatics in the Arab street, but even more there are many people who would give OBL some vague or concrete support while simultaneously working in a globalized industry and watching Baywatch. These people would actually be horrified if bin Laden's vision came to be, yet gain some righteousness and comfort by striking back at their employers.

I can't think of American religious examples, but American communists and libertarians come to mind. In other words, I don't think you can discredit or dis-empower OBL by pulling him down to the concrete and empirical. The vision will survive him. You need to provide a competing vision.

Posted by: bob mcmanus | Jan 19, 2006 5:49:13 PM

I already know what the terrorists' demands are; but I don't see a point in negotiating with them.

If we want to stop all this death and destruction, we should stop supporting puppet dictators, stop trying to dominate every oil exporting country, and stop supporting Israeli expansionism. None of this aggression benefits you or me. If it somehow did, I'd enjoy a better standard of living than my European or Japanese counterpart. But I don't. It benefits the inhuman corporations that Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Rice work for when they're out of office, and makes them the most powerful people in the world when they're in office. That's what we're paying for with our blood and money.

Posted by: Gary Sugar | Jan 19, 2006 5:52:03 PM

I think this comp. is completely plausible. I'm thinking we trade Al-Qaeda; bomb for bomb? Yes. We get to blow up mecca, and they get Harvard and Yale?

What are ya smokin'?

Posted by: anonyyyyeeeee | Jan 19, 2006 5:58:41 PM

I thought we gave in to most of OBL's demands. Didn't he want higher oil prices and more Islamic governments in the Middle East? Since 2001, oil prices have soared, and we have eliminated the secular regime in Iraq. We may not be negotiating with Al Qaeda, but we haven't been neglecting their demands.

Posted by: Kaleberg | Jan 19, 2006 6:00:34 PM

I notice this quote from McClellan:

"The terrorists started this war and the president made it clear that we will end it at a time and place of our choosing."

Ok then...how about tomorrow? Is tomorrow good for you? Why aren't we choosing tomorrow?

Posted by: DonBoy | Jan 19, 2006 6:00:42 PM

It seems to me that the Al-Qaida campaign in Iraq has been a huge public relations disaster for Al-Qaida. It has exposed that they fear Arab democracy and are happily willing to kill Muslims who don't act as they think they should.

This is not to say that the Iraq campaign has been a unqualified success for America either, but it has been worse for Al-Qaida.

Given that, I am not sure why withdrawal from Iraq, especially if it is seen to be because of a terror threat, would be beneficial to the goal of weakening Al-Qaida. There position in Iraq is become increasingly untenable and they are on the verge of a total loss there. The native Sunni resistance is doing better 'pr' wise, but they are also showing willingness to at least try the democratic process. We can (and should) negotiate with them to a degree, but to negotiate, or unilaterally agree with Al-Qaida demands seems incredibly self defeating.

Posted by: Dave Justus | Jan 19, 2006 6:08:27 PM

This is one of those cases in which thinking about terrorism as a law enforcement issue rather than a war is actually better. In a war, there's nothing personal. At a certain point, the factions in a war grow tired and decide to negotiate a truth so that each side can get back to going about its business.

But you don't "negotiate" with a serial killer or a criminal enterprise. The USA didn't decide to negotiate as "truce" with the mafia. No, instead, the cases were kept open and the authorities patiently and methodically kept working on their cases until, finally, the criminals could be caught and prosecuted.

Bush and his supporters, however, aren't interested in the "winning" part of the war. They're interested in the "idea" of a war. Law enforcement has an ending-- you catch the bad guys and dismantle the crime syndicates. For the White House, war is more of a "way of life" rather than a method on a way to a destination.

Posted by: Constantine | Jan 19, 2006 6:10:32 PM

I think you are on the right track in wanting to know what OBL wants. That's only smart, but it certainly didn't seem to be hardly anyone's response to 9/11. And I suspect that OBL would and has told us. If we want to prevent further terrorist attacks, it seems elementary that we should understand the "demands" that underlie them.

That said, what we are in is not and has never been a "war." OBL is an admitted criminal murderer. We also have one of those in the White House as under his watch US agents have arrogated to themselves the right to kill and kidnap without law or regard for international boundaries.

What we all need, in the US and throughout the world, is the creation of a regime of international law. Nothing else is going to work, even if that only works haltingly. At the apex of US power in 1945, our leaders understood that. They've been losing their perceptive abilities ever since.

Posted by: janinsanfran | Jan 19, 2006 8:10:10 PM

Ezra is on to something, but he misses the mark. No, we shouldn't negotiate with Al Qaeda, but we do need to make clear to the rest of the world, including potential Al Qaeda sympathizers, that the reason we aren't accepting Al Qaeda's demands isn't because they are necessarily objectively unreasonable, but rather because they are sham demands.

Al Qaeda has a history of making relatively benign demands, knowing that the West will not accept them. Our refusal to enter into a dialogue allows bin Laden and his cohorts to point to our unreasonableness as evidence that terroristic force is necessary to accomplish even moderate goals (e.g. reduced intervention by Western powers in Arab affairs).

Our response should be that bin Laden's demands are absurd...it is crazy to believe that withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq would buy us peace because we were attacked before we invaded either country. Therefore bin Laden is simply lying for propoganda purposes.

Posted by: space | Jan 19, 2006 8:22:04 PM

Dude, "Al Qaeda"'s real objectives aren't some great mystery. Read Jason Burke's book, or Peter Bergen's. Hell, read Scheuer's if you have to. The mystery comes from treating it as a monolithic entity, in a way that it never really existed and certainly doesn't now, and pretending that it has unified objectives. Even at the peak of its powers and at its most unified, during the late 90s, different factions with different, sometimes even conflicting, objectives. For instance there was heated debate as regards the approach to Shi'ism.

I suppose my point is that not only is there no one body we can negotiate with, we don't even have to negotiate with the rest. A terrorist group is only as effective as its recruitment ability, even with state backing. The things that would undermine recruitment are usually things we should be doing anyway. A perfect example is the weak Western response to the Pakistani/Indian earthquake. This has probably been a more effective recruiting tool for Islamists than everything between 9/11 and 2005 put together. Jamaat e Islami and its affiliates are the first port of call for many victims, and Western and domestic indifference or incompetence plays right into their hands.
It's almost exactly the same technique Hamas use in Palestine, preaching the destruction of Israel on the one hand and replacing the social welfare functions of the state on the other.

You don't get a ton of recruits by just screaming "The West is evil, we will kill them all". You have to address people's grievances, and somehow persuade them that your brand of violent extremism is the way to address those grievances. For it to be a threat to the west, you have to go a stage further and persuade recruits that attacking the West will somehow address their grievances (for example by stopping Western governments from supporting corrupt or tyrannical regimes. This is a lot easier to do when there are a lot of grievances about, and when the West supports corrupt or tyrannical regimes.

Posted by: Ginger Yellow | Jan 19, 2006 9:33:45 PM

The ironic thing is that if bin Laden did consent to accept U.S. requests for "negotiations", it would probably create a schism among his followers, dividing them into those who'd remain loyal to him and those who'd feel he betrayed their cause, possibly weakening al-Qaeda in the long run. But this is still nothing more than a thought experiment

Posted by: ADL | Jan 20, 2006 12:22:16 AM

No, no, no, no. First of all, it's doubtless true that Bin Laden and his followers have some legitimate grievances. Who cares? *Everybody* has some legitimate grievances. One simple point is that there are tons of peoples, and tons of causes, who arguably have legitimate grievances against us. Only a few of those of people & causes resort to terrorism, and you're implicitly arguing that we should promote the terrorist's cause to the head of the queue and address those grievances immediately. Squeaky wheel gets the grease.

At this point, I don't really care about what motivates Bin Laden, I don't care about influencing Bin Laden's behavior. I care that some chuckle-headed young Saudi fool doesn't get influenced by Bin Laden unnecessarily, but not at the cost of changing our Mid-East policy from what is right to what may be more popular.

But the fundamental misconception here is that we fight the war on terror to be safer. Since the people who are doing the fighting on our side could have chosen the safer option and not enlisted, this belief is something that seems obviously right but in fact isn't. About 5 months ago I found an interesting 1943 literary anthology, which contains 4 amazing British WWII letters, which you've just inspired me to transcribe this weekend. Here is the very end excerpt from the last letter, which taught me why safety, per se, is not the real goal we're fighting for:

". . .So-the war will be long and terrible, and we may emerge financially crippled for generations and, perhaps, a poor country where life is hard. But it will be worth it.

For this is, in essence, a religious war. We fight not to determine how our neighbor shall worship God, but how he shall conduct himself toward his neighbor, and how he shall so govern himself as to be no menace to his fellows. They call it a crusade - it is wider than that, for many creeds take part.

What are we fighting for? Well, some will say for self-preservation. That hardly makes sense, considering the self-sacrifice. We fight against what we believe to be evil, and our aim is to make the world a better place. Details we leave until later."

Posted by: roublen | Jan 20, 2006 1:12:55 AM

Saddam is toast. Afghanistan outlasted the U.S.S.R. The reason for troops in Iraq is what exactly ? Ask the question again and again and again and again and again and .............

Posted by: opit | Jan 20, 2006 1:47:51 AM

As far as I recall, UBL's objectives were:

1. US out of Saudi Arabia
2. End US support for corrupt Middle Eastern regimes
3. End US support for Israel

to which he has now added
4. US out of Afghanistan
5. US out of Iraq

1 is already achieved. 2 is a very good idea, as is 3, though both should probably only be achieved as part of a general Israel/Palestine settlement. (For example: go hell for leather for an Israel/Syria settlement; that achieved, aid to Syria as previously to Egypt and Israel under Camp David; gradually taper off all the aid over, say, five years.)
4 is achievable, as is 5.

Once you look at it, he doesn't actually seem to want the impossible, does he?

Posted by: ajay | Jan 20, 2006 5:20:08 AM

No. Bin Laden has nothing to offer the negotiation. He couldn't stop Islamic terrorism if he tried, which would be a critical component of compromise. What would be the point of negotiating? How would you do it?

Posted by: perianwyr | Jan 20, 2006 9:21:44 AM

My thoughts:

If this is a Global War on Terror, we should negotiate. Negotiations may not be productive, but we can't lose either. Since the Bush administration has framed this as a war, then, yes, negotiations are probably a good idea.

On the other hand, if we had framed this as police tracking down common criminals -- dealing with Osama no differently than with, say, Jeffrey Dahmer. In that case, negotiations wouldn't be appropriate, because it would mean acknowledging that Al Qaeda is a belligerant, rather than just a bunch of thugs.

However, that line has already been crossed. The Bush administration has already decided that Al Qaeda is a belligerant, and not a bunch of criminals, so we have nothing to lose by negotiating.

Posted by: Julian Elson | Jan 20, 2006 11:12:02 AM

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