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December 30, 2005

Crystal Ball

Here are my predictions for 2006. What're yours?

December 30, 2005 | Permalink

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There is no corner? I'm not sure. The oldest baby boomers are turning 60. How much longer until healthcare becomes a super-crisis? (I think it's already a crisis). Is 2006 the year? I have no idea, but if Democrats don't make it an issue in 2006, they are completely crazy.

As for midterm election excitment, it seems so cynical (you're too young for that yet, Ezra) to say that the netroots will be getting it wrong. I think the effectiveness of the netroots has grown exponentionally since 2004. Look at Paul Hackett - he almost won in 2005! I think midterms really do come down to excitement at the base. There's plenty to excite Democrats, but what is there to excite the Republican base? I doubt support for a big brother government is going to be a winning issue, even if there is a backlash against Democratic calls for impeachment.

I think you may be right about a backlash against impeachment. We have to be careful not to be seen as too partisan. Unfortunately the Republicans already opened that can of worms so it will probably be seen as some kind of payback.

Posted by: Unstable Isotope | Dec 30, 2005 4:10:49 PM

The election one is a joke, I'm just taking a cheap dig at Jerome and Markos's prediction records. They know I love 'em. As for the corner, it won't be in 2006 is all I'm saying.

Posted by: Ezra | Dec 30, 2005 4:13:11 PM

-The following people will die:

•Gerald Ford
•Fidel Castro
•David Letterman's Mom
•Leonard Nimoy
•John Paul Stevens

-Brokeback Mountain will win the Oscar for Best Picture, while Steven Spielberg will win the Oscar for Best Director. Heath Ledger will win for Best Actor and Reese Witherspoon will win for Best Actress.

-Trent Lott will retire from the Senate, and Mitch McConnell will be elected minority leader.

-Catherine Zeta-Jones and Michael Douglas will get divorced.

-Arnold Schwarzeneggar will be defeated for re-election by Phil Angelides

-Samuel Alito will not get confirmed, though the next nominee will.

Posted by: Greg Packnett | Dec 30, 2005 4:16:59 PM

One more:

Pervez Musharraf will be overthrown by a coup in Pakistan.

Posted by: Greg | Dec 30, 2005 4:20:03 PM

Is J.P. Stevens ill? I hope he lives a long, long life!

Posted by: Unstable Isotope | Dec 30, 2005 4:38:42 PM

Texas 31, USC 27.

Posted by: norbizness | Dec 30, 2005 5:38:24 PM

Hey, look! Britney and Kevin! Hey, look! Britney and Kevin! Hey, look! Britney and Kevin!

(I've never heard that line about the goldfish - it's tickling me to no end.)

As for "Mitch McConnell will be elected minority leader," I've met the man. He's a scumbag. The mere thought makes me want to hide under the bed. Yech.

Posted by: Pepper | Dec 30, 2005 5:52:32 PM

Immigration will split the GOP apart. - yes. And Dems, by not directly addressing the issues raised, will look much better and win votes for it.

Bloggers will continue to talk about health care as if action is right around the corner. There will be no corner. - brave of you to acknowledge this...

The stars of Mark Warner, Mitt Romney, and John McCain will continue to rise. No, Mitt Romney's star will dim and fade, and he will move into a think tank job. John McCain will rise, but only in Dems eyes.

I will continue arguing the case for Al Gore. Man, you just so crazzy...

Liberals will get excited about the midterm election. If Iraq is going badly we will regain the House and the Senate. If the Abramoff scandal blows up, we will regain the House and Senate. If neither of these happens, we will eke a small gain in the Senate, possibly a narrow majority, and keep the House very tight.


Various celebrity pairings, break-ups, and rumors will continue to overshadow political news. I will secretly be more interested in them than in political news. Also, Rachel McAdams will continue her march to cinematic omnipresence. Brokeback Mountain will win Best Picture. Heath Ledger will win Best Actor. The conservatives will claim that this proves civilization is dying. What will really prove their case - though they will not admit it - is the continued success and celebrity of Paris Hilton.

George W. Bush's poll numbers will continue dancing around the 40s, occasionally dipping into the 30s or darting into the 50s. George Bush will never see 50% again in his Presidency and when he drops into the mid-30s, all bets for progress on anything in 2007 are off.

The NSA scandal will blow up, doing the White House moderate political damage before a backlash against Democrats gleefully calling for impeachment proceedings turns the tide. If the NSA issue blows up big enough - and it could - impeachment will be the least of their problems. Absent a terror attack (and there culd be one), fear ongering will hold less and less sway and pratical concerns about trusting this President, or any President, with such sweeping power will become a broad concern. If Republicans catch on to this and adapt, no gain for Dems. If not, we take back the House.

Posted by: weboy | Dec 30, 2005 5:56:05 PM

Predictions, shmedictions. Some are serious, some aren't. Here's what's on tap:

--USC will annhilate Texas, 41-24. Their streak will probably end next season, though, and assuming that everyone (read: Vince Young) stays at Texas, they'll win the title the following season. That's assuming Ohio State doesn't beat them at home.

--More retirements in Congress. McConnell becomes Majority Leader. Lott retires.

--Castro dies. The result? More retirements in Congress, as Illeana Ros-Lehtinen and Lincoln Diaz-Balart (Diaz-Balart in particular) go to Cuba, preferring trying to become President of Cuba in the aftermath to serving in the minority in Congress.

--Neither becomes President of Cuba.

--The U.S., against all odds, wins the gold medal in hockey in the Winter Games.

--Michelle Kwan finally wins an Olympic gold.

--Continuing the trend of improbable champions, the Cincinnati Bengals win the Super Bowl.

--Brokeback Mountain wins a string of nominations, but no awards (except maybe technical awards). Some other movie walks away with the hardware (Munich? Walk the Line?). I'm with Greg, for the most part: Reese will win Best Actress, Spielberg will win Best Director. But Best Actor will be either Joaquin Phoenix or Eric Bana.

--There will be more natural disasters. One of them will be a flash flood which destroys a considerable portion of Colorado Springs. James Dobson and Focus on the Family will find a way to blame it on gays, liberals, and sundry other avatars of America's moral decay, despite the fact that Dobson & Co. have set tent up in...you guessed it...Colorado Springs!

--More celebrities will die. Among these will be a young celebrity, thanks to a youthful life filled with dissolution. We will hear endless encomiums as to how said celebrity touched all our lives, and how there will be an endless void in our lives.

--Our lives will, in fact, go on. When they do the retrospective on dead celebrities at the end of the year, we'll all go, "She died this year? Man, I forgot!".

--The Cubs and Yankees will meet in the World Series. The Yankees, being, well, the Yankees, will prove impervious to the recent skein of improbable sport champions, and win the Series in six games.

--Such a fate will not befall the U.S. soccer team. In fact, the team will advance to the semifinals, causing apoplexy in the rest of the world.

--Despite our best efforts, Democrats will regain majorities in both the House and Senate. Despite our fondest hopes, not much will come of that at first.

--Iraq becomes even more of a mess.

--I'm with you, Ezra: Rachel McAdams becomes the It Girl.

--TomKat breaks up. Katie Holmes will thereafter address questions and comments about this strange interlude with a nervous giggle and uncomfortable silence.

Posted by: Raf | Dec 30, 2005 5:57:53 PM

I will refuse to let my eyes wander in the supermarket checkout stand toward the tabloids and their incessant celeb scandals (and I won't read Ezra when he brings it celeb faces/bodies - they have no personalities).

35% of the population will continue to believe outright untruths about the Iraq War (WMDs, Saddam/Al Queda, Democracy in Iraq, etc.) thus proving something.

Regardless of which party controls the House and Senate after the 06 elections, no progress on universal health care, income distribution readjustment, environment degrading, energy self-reliance improvement, money for votes in Congress, and federal checks and balances reestablishment.

Liberal/progessive bloggers and commenters will be worn out by 1/1/07, and move on the next meme.

Iraq will have a civil war disguised as a continuing insurgency.

More Bu$hCo folks will be under investigation and indictment, but the media will have passed on 'more important matters'.

2006 won't be 'a very good year'.

Posted by: JimPortandOR | Dec 30, 2005 7:07:47 PM

Many pundits will try to make hay out of/desperately ignore the moment when the number of Americans killed in Iraq passes the number of Americans who died on September 11th.

Posted by: Tony Vila | Dec 30, 2005 7:18:16 PM

The biggie is midterms. Democrats will make no gains, and will in fact lose seats. This of course, is against all polling. Diebold? Fraud? No. Major structural biases in the election system still persist. Meaning, better technology in GOP areas provides more than a substantial advantage.

Castro will pass on this year. That'll open the door to Cuban electons, and a populist party will win. Sanctions will be lifted, then put back into place when the new Cuban leader blocks Americans from investing and owning property in Cuba.

Posted by: Karmakin | Dec 30, 2005 9:40:20 PM

Bush's slide continues with only minor counter-blips. More startling revelations unfold. A growing number of Republicans will support impeachment proceedings to save their congressional seats.

Posted by: Jones | Dec 31, 2005 3:05:21 AM

Bush will be caught on film chugging Wild Turkey from a pocket flask. It will become illegal to take pictures of the King. I mean President.

The Bush dogs will learn to walk so they don't have to be carried everywhere.

An email from Tom DeLay to Jeff Gannon is leaked to the Washington Post that sheds light on a whole new circle of political influence and immoral behavior in Washington D.C. Ralph Reed will not comment.

Howard Dean will be recorded screaming like a Yeti. It will be played 5.7 million times on NeoCon Radio Inc.

Right Wing "militias" will be formed to control the spread of "communism" and "socialism". Members of any party other than Republican will be followed by FBI agents and sometimes jailed (in Eastern Europe ironically enough) for indefinite lengths of time.

Knight Ridder will be purchased by either Haliburton or United Defense. Ironically, even though both have many Saudi shareholders, their newspapers will still not be available in Arabic or Farsi.

Posted by: Andrew | Dec 31, 2005 12:03:41 PM

The iraqi dinar is a new and evolving currency. It's unstable situation in Iraq now, but we still have a hope.

http://www.iraqdinars.biz

Posted by: Jeff | Sep 6, 2007 8:03:28 PM

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