The Tipping Point

Posted by Nicholas Beaudrot of Electoral Math

Jim Kolbe's retirement announcement is likely be the first of many. Kolbe's district is nearly a 50-50 district, so the seat immediately becomes a competitive race. Kolbe was something of a "moderate", and he either got tired of having the leadership twist his arm, or saw that his re-election campaign would be more work than he wanted, or otherwise simply wasn't enjoying himself.

Steven M. Teles of the Reality-Based Community has argued that the shifting of political tides has both "demand-side" and "supply-components". Yes, voters' allegiances change (the demand-side), but that's often not enough to explain the changing fortunes of the two parties. But Teles thinks that in addition to this effect, the quality of candidates can depend on the public's view of the two parties. In a political climate where the party (and President) in power are viewed very unfavorably, the unfavorable party has a hard time recruiting quality candidates, and incumbents in moderate districts decide that they don't want to endure a grueling campaign. Meanwhile, members of the out-of-power party smell blood in the water, and their incumbents are more likely to stay in and fight, while more and more challengers decide that "this is the year". Kolbe's retirement lends some credence to this hypothesis, and may signal the start of an avalanche of retirements.