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October 08, 2005

The Mostly Unfuzzy Math of William Galston & Elaine Kamarck

Posted by Nicholas Beaudrot of Electoral Math

William Galston and Elaine Kamarck, authors of the seminal work "The Politics of Evasion: Democrats and the Presidency", a post-game analysis of the 1988 election that heavily influenced the DLC's (and therefore Bill Clinton's) electoral strategy, have updated their ideas for the modern electoral environment in  "The Politics of Polarization". In a noticeable shift from the the 1988 elections, the paper does not claim that Democrats have to "move to the center" in order to win the next Presidential election. Instead, it presents a muddled view of the electorate that suggests Democrats have some "hard decisions" that they must make before they will be able to win the Presidency, as long as foreign policy remains the key strength of Republicans. It recommends several possible changes, and thus has become something of a Rorschach test for various center-left members of the commentariat.

In reality, despite Galston & Kamarck's concerns, the long term demographic picture for Dems is not terribly gloomy, and small changes on the margins may be enough to solve our current electoral puzzle.

First, let's debunk the notion that long term demographic trends are stacked against Democrats. Looking at the issue poll on page 33, we see that Kerry lost the most ground among married women and white Catholics. All that talk about "security moms" turned out to be right -- like most Bush voters, they placed more emphasis on Iraq and terrorism than Kerry voters. But, the "security moms" deserted Bush immediately, as they were one of the first groups of Bush voters to oppose his Social Security schemes. Likewise, the continued bungling of Iraq and Katrina has damaged their confidence in conservative governing style. Security moms want a government that works for them and protects us from the hard edges of terrorism, natural disaster, and financial uncertainty. Taking a wrecking ball to our economic safety net and staffing FEMA with political hacks won't earn their support.

But we shouldn't rely on external events to return Democrats to power; after all, the facts on the ground in Iraq may change very quickly. So it behooves Dems to find ways of attracting voters in other ways. In addition to placing higher priority on fighting "terrorism" than the general public, married women were more concerned with Terrorism and Moral Values than their single counterparts. Likewise, white Catholic voters also placed a larger-than-average emphasis on "Moral Values". But before you roll your eyes and whine about anti-choice, anti-gay working class whites "voting against their own interests", let's look at what poll respondents said "moral values" meant to them. Half of the Values Voters gave the standard GOP reponses of abortion and gay marriage. But a quarter chose "candidate qualities" and a sixth chose "religious preferences". What, on earth, do these muddled responses mean?

The truth is, most voters think politics is too complicated for them. That's not a knock on voters -- they have better, more interesting things to do with their time, like sitting down with their kids to read, watching playoff baseball, or going fishing. They look at Kerry talking about his health care plan, they look at Bush talking about his health care plan, and in the rush of a few 90 minute debates, it can be very hard to tell the difference. So, they look at the personal qualities of the candidates, with the idea that those personal qualities will somehow reflect the behavior of the candidate once he's in office. Some voters are in fact looking at the candidate's views on abortion and gay marriage in that way. Some are looking at how "churched" he is (despite being a weekly churchgoer, Kerry's patrician Catholic language on Christianity sounds very foriegn to many Baptists, Presbyterians, and other assorted conservative Christians). But others are looking for the presence of conviction, a sign that they have personal beliefs and not just policy positions, and can withstand the Republican onslaught of being a Serial Exaggerator or Flip-Flopper. And you don't need to rebut the charge directly; Slick Willy accomplished this not by trying to be more honest than George HW Bush -- though "read my lips" helped on that front -- but by out-empathizing the incumbent President. Technocratish Dems -- the New Yale, as Matthew Yglesias puts it -- forget that these personal qualities serve as important indicators of a candidate's decision making process for many people.

"The Politics of Evasion" had a very clear message: working class white voters see Democrats as soft-on-crime, tax-and-spend liberals who can't be trusted to manage the economy. If you nominate a pro-death penalty, budget-balancing governor of a state that's moving in the right direction, moderate your image on welfare and crime, you'll have solved most of your problems.

The conclusions of "The Politics of Polarizaton" are much less clear. There many paths to victory at the national level for Democrats. Go "Sistah Souljah" on Michael Moore. Rachet up the rhetoric on Pakistan. Find some pro-life convention speakers and focus on the common ground goal of reducing the number of abortions. Pick a candidate who uses "I believe that ..." to mean "I know in my heart that..." rather than "Having looked at the available data, my opinion is ...". Use the phrase "this is not rocket science" when trashing the prescription drug's lack of bulk bargaining and reimportation. Get their hands dirty and start disparaging the personal qualities of Republican candidates (I hear Bill Frist killed cats when he was in Med School. Can we work up personal opposition to Brownback, McCain, Huckabee, Giuliani ... any of these other guys?). But none of these are terribly large changes in substance, and none of them are radical changes in style, either; the Democratic machine needs a tune-up, not an overhaul.

October 8, 2005 in Electoral Politics | Permalink

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Comments

I'm going to echo the New York Press's Mark Ames and say that you sound like an earnest high school civics teacher who plaintively insists, "you can't just be destructive, you need to be constructive."

Look, when a party's candidate wins 85 percent of the liberal vote, 89 percent of registered Democrats, and 55 percent of moderates and still loses, there's no where else to go in terms of expanding your vote. Maybe if we emphasize Social Security, you think we'll peel off 10% of the moderates and pull off a victory? For a candidate to capture his entire base and 2/3rds of moderates would require that there be some sort of national consensus which simply doesn't exist at the moment. Few of those self-proclaimed "moderates" vote for a party different than the one they've already been consistently voting for. Trying to claim that the Democrats can win by making inroads amongst Republican-voting conservatives and "moderates" is like the Republican fantasy that they can win by making inroads in the black community while simultaneously remaining the party of southern white resentment.

No, the solution is to drive up the Republicans' negative and ensure that the Republican base stays home on election day. It's sad, and it conflicts with decades of liberal electoral dogma, but it's true-- when "turn out the base" and "attract the moderates" is tapped out, the only thing left is to suppress the opposite guy's base. That involves a lot of stuff you describe at the end-- reminding everyone that Frist killed cats, Guiliani moved his mistress into Gracie Mansion, and borrowing Ralph Reed's South Carolina playbook when it comes to dealing with McCain. Not because this will make electoral inroads for Democrats but because it will cause a lot of Republicans to stay home on election day.

Posted by: Constantine | Oct 8, 2005 2:28:10 PM

A growing number of registered Democrats are voting Republican. The Democratic party has left a lot of older Americans and they just haven't changed their voter registration. A lot of Zel Miller Democrats. And not only cuz of national security. Old people in general are not all about gay marriage, cuz you know, "back in our day, gays didn't have parades where they danced around in thongs and tongue kissed, they stayed in the closet and that's the way we liked it!". Old people are not all about abortion on demand, cuz you know, "back in our day, if a woman got pregnant, the man got a job, they got married, they accepted responsibility for what they did, and that's the way we liked it!". On and on it goes with welfare, national security, gun control, affirmative action, etc. The Democratic party has shifted to the left, and the Democratic leaders echo that. Most older voters don't think to change their registration from Democrat to Republican.

And what has the Democrats done for labor lately? My dad was in the union(rubber workers, UAW) for over 40 years and he started voting Republican when Bush Sr. ran against Clinton. A few of my friends are in the union in Akron and could not stomach voting for Kerry (with a big thanks to me I must say). I reminded them that a vote for Kerry was a vote for gay marriage, affirmative action and coddling terrorists. I also asked them what Democrats had done for labor in recent years, NAFTA?

My dad got a thank you call from Bill Clinton (I am sure many of you know the recording I am talking about) on election day, right after he voted for Bush. As did my granpa.

Democrats got a bigger problem than they think.

Posted by: Captain Toke | Oct 8, 2005 3:42:46 PM

A growing number of registered Democrats are voting Republican.

Oh really? From the aforementioned report:

Carter captured 77 percent of registered Democrats ... Kerry captured 89 percent...

You might want to actually deal with the data instead of using a "proof by anecdote" sort of method.

Posted by: Constantine | Oct 8, 2005 3:57:05 PM

The most critical insight: "most voters think politics is too complicated for them. . . . they have better, more interesting things to do with their time,"

Democrats need to get in the habit of disparaging whatever Republicans say or do. If Democrats would just connect Republican economic policies with the redistribution of income from the poor and middle class to the very rich (and the reverse distribution of risk), at every opportunity, they would go a long way toward branding the Republican Party as untrustworthy.

A lot of the working class does vote Republican, and they are voting against their economic interest, and they do not know that, because Democrats roll their eyes instead of explaining, reporting, narrating, connecting-the-dots, for them.

Posted by: Bruce Wilder | Oct 8, 2005 4:07:32 PM

Nick, I like your analysis. The most interesting part of the study though is the finding (or maybe clear laying out of what we already knew) of the movement away after 96 of people with children -- not just married people with children, and not married people without children. In the high-partisanship 2004 election, I understand how the "security moms" joined their husbands in voting for Bush; when political awareness is high and opinions are strong, it's harder to vote against your spouse. But in 2000, you had a massive -- and so far permanent -- shifting of men with children to the Republican, and a smaller percentage of their wives. That's a trend I don't have a theory for (why did having children make so much difference?) and its the one I'd most say the Dems have got to reverse. On the other hand, it's a demographic probably especially susceptible to disgust with total screaming federal incompetence we've seen.

Posted by: tlaura | Oct 8, 2005 4:16:03 PM

"You might want to actually deal with the data instead of using a "proof by anecdote" sort of method."

Where do think the data in the study came from? Exit polls!

Now, Constantine, we all remember how accurate exit polls are!

Remember how excited Democrats were when the exit polls came out during the last election?

Posted by: Captain Toke | Oct 8, 2005 4:31:24 PM

Where do think the data in the study came from? Exit polls!

Unless you can point me to some better data, we're going to have to go with it, now aren't we? And unless you can show that somewhere in their data and methodology, it's wrong, it provides a decent metric for figuring out what happened. Saying, "well, the data says this, but this guy I know did something different" is not a valid reasoning method.

I'm actually surprised at you because the data backs up precisely what the right-wingers have been claiming all along-- that turning out the liberal "base" isn't enough to swing the election in the Democrats' favor. Now you're claiming that they were LOSING the base, which lost them the election. Or maybe your line of reasoning changes to back up the personal anecdote you wish to tell at the time.

Posted by: Constantine | Oct 8, 2005 4:45:51 PM

Constantine,

Remember when the conspiracy theorists were saying Bush couldn't have won Florida because there are more registered Democrats in Florida than registered Republicans?

"In Dixie County, for example, 9,676 people registered to vote. Nearly 78 percent of them were registered Democrats while 15 percent were registered Republicans. Yet Bush received 4,433 votes, while Kerry received only 1,959. Overall, Bush received about 20,000 more votes than there are registered Republicans in the state."

The truth hurts.

Posted by: Captain Toke | Oct 8, 2005 5:02:02 PM

I hear Bill Frist killed cats when he was in Med School
This sort of understates the case. He actually adopted a bunch of cats from a local shelter on the pretense that he was going to take them home as pets. Then he cut them apart.

Posted by: Neil the Ethical Werewolf | Oct 8, 2005 5:33:11 PM

Toke, given that Kerry won 48% of the vote nationally, I would suspect that the rest of the nation did not, overall, mirror the voting returns in one county of Florida, unless you're claiming that Bush won ~2/3rds of the national vote and that the rest of the country, except for a single Florida county, simply covered it up.

The truth is that, given the election returns, one can easily see that both sides had a massive turnout of their base. The problem was that, of course, the Bush campaign managed to turn out greater numbers than the kerry campaign (also, there are indications more Gore voters from 2000 stayed home and didn't vote in 2004 while few Bush voters in 2000 stayed home in 2004).

Posted by: Constantine | Oct 8, 2005 5:35:54 PM

Constantine,

Don't accuse me of making assertions based on anecdote. I back up assertions I make with fact. It just so happens that what happened in Florida in 2004 (registered Dems voting Republican) happened in my very own family.

I used the example above because it illistrates my point. But what happened in the example above happened to a lesser extent all over the country. A lot more registered Democrats crossed party lines in the election of 2004 than did registered Republicans, and part of the reason is what I cited in my original post. Bush did get 20,000 more votes in Florida than there are registered Republicans in Florida.

Posted by: Captain Toke | Oct 8, 2005 5:59:45 PM

Constantine,

I agree that Democrats also need to do more to both fracture the Republican coalition and drive down turnout among the Republican base. And, it's important to make "conservative" something that moderates don't really want to be. You'll also note that I think Democrats need to get back in the business of the politics of personal destruction, in the sense that if voters use character qualities as proxies for policy positions, then we should be working to associate bad character qualities with Republicans. But, I think it's simultaneously important for Dems to "speak the language" of working-class voters rather than just sound like policy technocrats.

However, I don't think things like working towards "common ground" on abortion are bad ideas either.

Neil,

Yeah. It's great. If the Democratic candidate in 2008 is running against Frist and we don't have dozens of stories about his cat-killing shenanigans, we really are bringing a knife to a gun fight.

Posted by: Nicholas Beaudrot | Oct 8, 2005 8:24:04 PM

I don't think things like working towards "common ground" on abortion are bad ideas either.

This is one area where I think "moderation" is probably a decent strategy. I think that voters find it particularly creepy when a man talks up the virtue of unlimited abortion rights, not because those voters want to make abortion illegal, but because the man comes across as the guy who wants to make sure that his girlfriend can get an abortion if she gets pregnant so he doesn't get stuck paying child support... such a politician appears unconsciously to voters as being motivated by self-interest rather than political ideals. That said, this strategy is just part and parcel of "speaking a language" to voters and using certain issues as "signals" that imply values that the candidate shares with them, not an actual policy compromise.

Posted by: Constantine | Oct 8, 2005 9:50:51 PM

"Neil,

Yeah. It's great. If the Democratic candidate in 2008 is running against Frist and we don't have dozens of stories about his cat-killing shenanigans, we really are bringing a knife to a gun fight."

Yeah, why don't you two go work on that strategy. Maybe Neil can make up some names the candidate can call him like 'Doctor Fristenstein' of 'Doctor Bill, Evil Genius'. If only the Democrats had you clever minds in 2000!

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Posted by: camilo | Jun 15, 2007 2:09:09 PM

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