The Burning Bush

I have to say, I'm starting to think Matt is very wrong on this:

That dynamic [nobody is loyal to Bush anymore because he's not running for anything] will probably get very bad for Bush sometime after the 2006 elections unless the White House political team manages to settle on a favorite standard-bearer and essentially clear the primary field for him.

Matt's been making this argument for awhile now and some weeks find it more convincing than others. This week's not a good one. Bush is currently under 40% in the polls. In Virginia, his existence is proving a negative for Kilgore -- reverse coattails, if you will. So let's say, given all this, and assuming some degree of Democratic pickup in the 2006 elections, Bush and his handlers begin signaling their favored candidate. What happens?

Revolt.

Once Bush picks a candidate, that's it. Every other candidate knows their hopes of a Bush endorsement are over. So what's their probable move? They're not going to give up their presidential dreams just because Bush is signaling away from them. Hell, Bush is massively unpopular and he just led his party to defeat in the last election -- run against him. Separate from the Administration. Run as a champion of restored conservatism (Gingrich, by the way, is almost certainly preparing to do this). Attack Bush on immigration. Assault his handling of the government. Condemn the massive deficit he's created. Lament the growth of government under his tenure. In Bush-talk, git 'em.

If Bush embraces a candidate, that guy gets to spend the next two years walking around with a bull's eye attached to his back. So, for that matter, does Bush. Without the promise of a presidential endorsement vaulting them to the forefront of the pack, presidential hopefuls will have to rely on antagonism to up their profile. And so they will, making the Senate totally unworkable for the President and giving the Sunday shows an almost inexhaustible list of conservative guests eager to take on the President from the right.

Currently, quite a few media darlings have sacrificed their integrity on the altar of their ambitions. Guys like McCain, Giuliani, and Graham would be taking the President to the wall if they weren't expecting their support was a quid pro quo arrangement. If Bush yanks that hope away, the whole lot will filet the Commander-in-Chief, both out of anger and political necessity. Were Bush's conservative credentials unquestioned and his numbers stratospheric, that might prove a bad strategy. But if he continues on his current trajectory, being closely tied to his administration could be poisonous come election season. We may have entered a situation where, not only is it not smart for the Bush administration to designate a successor, but no successor would want their designation.

The nightmare scenario for the Bush administration is that they signal to a successor, but either their popularity or his weakness allows one of the spurned hopefuls to vault ahead of him. Now Allen (or whoever) is looking weaker than McCain and Giuliani, they're leading in the polls and raising more cash, and all through the Republican establishment, functionaries, influence-peddlers, contributors, and wise men are throwing their lot in with the other guy. And since the other guy is making a name by proving himself independent of the Administration, being loyal to him means opposing Bush. Now Republicans are split.

That'd effectively mark the end of the Bush presidency. Matt is right to say that the incentive now is to gain favoritism not with Bush, but with the next Republican candidate. But with Bush at his nadir, there's a real danger that he can't actually pick the next candidate -- that his choice will fail. And if he can't guarantee success, trying, and failing, would set off an internecine war so vicious that he might as well spend all of 07 and 08 back at the ranch.

Update: Matt says he's confining himself to just the folks who work under Bush, making a lot of this post beside his point. Fair enough. It's my opinion that the problems I've laid out here outweigh the benefits of uniting Bush's underlings and will keep the Administration from doing this, but maybe not. Gaming this stuff out is tricky.