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September 10, 2005

Impeachment?

By Ezra

I would say, in response to Shakes and for those attracted to the impeachment idea, that even if we did get there, we'd be left with President Cheney, which is potentially less palatable than Bush. (As an aside, I always thought the Cheney selection was very good as a survival strategy. Anyone who'd possibly be interested in assassinating George would be horrified at the thought of installing Dick. Cheney, then, is life insurance for Bush. But I digress.) But ignoring that for a moment, I still think it a bad idea, and we need only look at the Clinton template to see why.

One thing to remember about the Republican attempt to impeach Clinton is that, annoying as it was, it failed utterly. The impeachment overreach destroyed Newt Gingrich's career and handed the Republicans the worst elections results for an opposition party since Johnson crushed Goldwater in 1964. Think about that -- getting so close to destroying the President ended with Republicans getting the worst whupping any opposition party had received in 34 years.

Democrats, for our part, have always been impressed that they got so far on so little, and I fear it sometimes obscures the fact that doing so almost destroyed them, and certainly killed the Republican revolution. Indeed, Bush can fairly be judged a child of that overreach, as compassionate conservatism was an attempt to say "not Newt Gingrich", and he only needed to say that because impeachment left Newt looking like the sort of creature kids feared lived in their closets.

I'd like to handicap Bush, and I think Democrats should make a lot of hay out of Hastert's refusal to give full subpoena powers to a congressional investigation. Indeed, a large part of our 2006 appeal should be based on the argument that at least some branch of government should be able to exercise antagonistic oversight on the others ones. Without a Democratic majority anywhere, Republicans are letting each other get away with all kinds of crazy shit -- witness Pat Roberts' dodge on the Iraqi WMD commission, the neutering of the ethics committee, the impotence of Conyers DSM hearings, etc.

But an impeachment argument is a different order of magnitude, one that rarely works, one that we don't have the votes for, and one that could really kill us. To paraphrase The Usual Suspects, what happens if shoot the devil in the back and miss? Without a congressional majority, without the media echo chamber Republicans have, and without charismatic and nationally recognized leaders of our own, I fear we'll almost certainly miss, and Democrats in 2006 could become Republicans in 1998. Considering we're already in the minority, we just don't have the numbers to risk that.

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Comments

Well said! Although I disagree with you slightly.

The impeachment of Clinton seemed engineered to smear Al Gore more than to actually get rid of Clinton. If Clinton had been convicted, then President Gore would have most likely been elected in 2000, and again in 2004. The Republicans didn't want Gore to assume the presidential mantle for this reason, and contented themselves with the destruction of Clinton's name and legacy. But the real benefit of the impeachment proceeding was to sour the national mood for a DC insider such as Gore, and to open the door for an extremist disguised as a seemingly affable "compassionate conservative."

As you've stated, Clinton's impeachment had a deleterious on the bomb throwing Gingrich's career, but I think the Republican Party power mongers saw it as an acceptable risk. At any rate, with the help of the Supreme Court, it won them the presidency. So even though it was an immediate PR disaster for a few career Republicans, it was used to great effect down the road.

We shouldn't repeat those mistakes, but we shouldn't shy away from impeachment either. The timing of an impeachment proceeding has to correllate with the public's perception of wrongdoing. The mutterings of impeachment may energize the Bush haters, but we take care in not pushing the meme before the public finds it acceptable.

Posted by: James Emerson | Sep 10, 2005 4:27:39 PM

I think you're viewing the impeachment of GW through a purely political prism. If waging an unprovoked war of agression isn't a 'high crime or misdemeanor' I'm not sure what would qualify. And to keep it purely internal to the US, asserting the right and following through on the arbitrary and indefinite detention of American Citizens based soley on the assertion by the President that they are bad people is a bad thing. It's the first step on the way to concentration camps (and no I don't think I'm using hyperbole).

And I don't think President Cheney would be so bad. Either he or Rove is already the defacto President anyway and even the current crop of Democrats in Washington would probably be able to oppose Cheney on every single thing he proposed.

Posted by: Hank | Sep 10, 2005 4:45:22 PM

James: I think we get into trouble when we give the GOP such extraordinary powers of calculation. These guys were after Clinton, not a referred hit on Gore.

Hank: Unfortunately, this is politics, and considering it anything but leaves us open to defeat by those with a more realistic view of it. It's also worth saying that, war of aggression or not, the American people essentially ratified it in 2004 and are not going to impeach him simply because he went to Iraq. At the very least, I've seen no evidence for an opinion swing of that magnitude.

Posted by: Ezra | Sep 10, 2005 4:48:37 PM

I guess my thought is that because it's so very, very unlikely to actually happen, it's a useful tool. All the doomsday stuff is relevant only if there's a likelihood of success, honestly.

Of course, that tactic backfired on Pompey....

Posted by: Shakespeare's Sister | Sep 10, 2005 6:15:39 PM

Yes impeachment is a political event, and it's not going to happen to GW, but that doesn't mean I think he shouldn't be impeached. He's a war criminal and a would-be dictator.

Posted by: Hank | Sep 10, 2005 8:37:20 PM

Wasn't it Sun Tzu who said something like, "Never attack to wound, attack to kill." I think Ezra is right in so far as any impeachment attempt would fail and in doing so get the GOP circling the wagons. We sure as hell don't need to do stupid things that would strengthen their hand. At this point the left to point at the fiscal lunacy going on in nthe halls of congress. The idea of passing more tax cuts for the wealthy at a time of national crisis has a lot more resonance.

Posted by: Sonny | Sep 10, 2005 8:49:39 PM

"The impeachment overreach destroyed Newt Gingrich's career and handed the Republicans the worst elections results"

Are you kidding? Newt Gingrich wasn't destroyed bt a failed impeachment. He was destroyed by screwing his secretary. The particular Saturday of the impeachment vote was the day Livingston embarrassed the party by having to remove his name from consideration. I am guessing, but my presumption lo these years is that behind closed doors DeLay asked "Hell, does anyone else have skeletons?" Newt blushed and was couped the hell outa there. Delay was in final control.

Posted by: bob mcmanus | Sep 10, 2005 9:28:16 PM

Ezra: I think we get into trouble when we give the GOP such extraordinary powers of calculation. These guys were after Clinton, not a referred hit on Gore.

You may be correct, but you must remember that Clinton was pursued in every conceivable way by well funded rightwing interests throughout his presidency. In the end, Clinton was too slippery so they went to impeachment with a blow job which...in DC at least...isn't that big a deal (Big Bill's nickname nonwithstanding).

But it wasn't until Ken Starr leaked his porngraphic depiction of Clinton's affair that I realized how calculating and vindictive these people had become. It was also late in his presidency, and they were getting desperate to find a reasonable smear to use against him. The Starr report alone suggests a level of malfeasance and malevolence that goes far beyond the normal dirty tricks that characterized American politics up to that time.

Considering the effort, the money, and the focus the rightwingers visited upon Clinton, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Gore's political diminuition or outright destruction was planned from the beginning as part of the campaign.

Posted by: James Emerson | Sep 10, 2005 10:04:23 PM

Oh, they're calculating and vicious, the point is that they're not necessarily brilliant. Starr's attack was quite crude, so crude that it ended up backfiring. And Bob is a good example of what I'm warning against -- we think Speaker Gingrich, historic actor that he is, left because DeLay made inquiries? Nah -- Democrats were expected to lose big in the 1998 midterms. There's a movie that follows Newt throughout that night, and watching his face fall and his career shatter is a rare pleasure. It wasn't DeLay, it was the fact that his project was discredited and his numbers were shameful.

Posted by: Ezra | Sep 10, 2005 10:44:12 PM

"And Bob is a good example of what I'm warning against -"-

Grrr. We are remembering different movies. Gingrich has always represented the plutocrat wing, Delay has his base in the Religious Right. I don't deny that the election cost Gingrich, but it was the adultery that put the Religious Right into whatever position of shared power it currently holds in the party. Gingrich is still trying to move the Party away from values issues. Yet Bush hops a plane to sign the Terry Schiavo legislation. We will see what kind of traction Gingrich gains in his current campaign.

Now if you want to believe Wall Street controls the party more than Dobson, we each can make a case and have an argument. But Rove worked the gay marriage issue in Ohio and Michigan. Republicans believe the values battle works for them, and the impeachment was a success.

And Democrats may have gained some seats in 1998, if that is the kind of success you are willing to settle for. We have gotten absolutely nothing since, and those seats have done us no good at all. Whereas values money has continued to win Republicans seats ever since the impeachment. Coburn for example.

Posted by: bob mcmanus | Sep 10, 2005 11:00:46 PM

To continue.

You have to divide the Republican Revolution along those historical lines. Gingrich won the house in 94 on a reform platform, and for four years tried to run a reform house and party. Anybody remember term limits?
But Gingrich's reform movement really didn't gain the Republicans any tangible benefits, he was stymied at every step by Clinton.

In the eyes of Delay and the Southern right, it wasn't the impeachment that lost seats in 98, it was Gingrichs softness and willingness to compromise with Clinton. And what is important is not how you see it, but how they see it.

After the impeachment and the ouster of Gingrich they abandoned reform, went for mad levels of pork, gov't spending, and red meat to the base. And have been winning ever since.

Posted by: bob mcmanus | Sep 10, 2005 11:15:06 PM

I reread this piece, and it just totally wrong on every count.

Gingrich was not an enthusiastic force behind the impeachment.

"Bush can fairly be judged a child of that overreach, as compassionate conservatism was an attempt to say "not Newt Gingrich""

You and Matthew. You think Bush rhetoric means the moderate left has won. Why don't you take at look at FEMA, whatever is left of it, and tell me that gov't services are unassailable.

Everyone in the Republican party knew that Bush was not a reform candidate, he was indeed "not Newt Gingrich" He was the wholly-owned puppet of Ralph Reed and Pat Robertson.

Posted by: bob mcmanus | Sep 11, 2005 12:04:59 AM

"and I fear it sometimes obscures the fact that doing so almost destroyed them, and certainly killed the Republican revolution."

Certainly, the Republican Revolution died in 1998.

Try telling that to the poor in New Orleans, or the people in Tennessee just kicked off Medicare, or the women about to lose a little more choice.

You're taking this act to the big city? Shape up, man.

Posted by: bob mcmanus | Sep 11, 2005 12:15:41 AM

That's five posts and I'm still trying to figure out which of them made sense. The GOP doesn't run on values money, it runs on values footsoldiers. The Democratic gains would've mattered quite a bit if they'd gotten us a majority again (which they almost did). Rove constantly uses values issues to wedge but he barely ever legislates them into being. DeLay took the speakership not because of religious right support but because of PAC money.

Indeed, DeLay's the best example of this -- his power comes from his cash, his cash comes from industry, and industry donates because DeLay lets them write legislation. Check out "The Hammer" for more on that. The GOP is cynical with their values soldiers, always has been. And in any case, if you think Gingrich gave up the speaker slot because he was worried about DeLay's disapproval or Christian pressure, well, I'd say you don't know Newt too well. The guy would've started a war before being ousted. As it is, he lost one. But it was fought against Clinton, not Dobson.

Posted by: Ezra | Sep 11, 2005 2:35:57 AM

"But it was fought against Clinton, not Dobson."

Neither Clinton or Dobson had a vote in the caucus. Why don't you ask Delay or Sensenbrenner or Dornan why they lost seats in the 98 midterms. I see no evidence that the GOP has abandoned the politics of polarization having learned their lesson.

And talk of impeachment is pretty silly, because Democrats are not going to gain the House. But I do support a political strategy of polarization, radicalization, and division.

Posted by: bob mcmanus | Sep 11, 2005 4:06:34 AM

because Democrats are not going to gain the House.

Don't be so sure about that.

Posted by: Thad | Sep 11, 2005 4:04:53 PM

(As an aside, I always thought the Cheney selection was very good as a survival strategy. Anyone who'd possibly be interested in assassinating George would be horrified at the thought of installing Dick. Cheney, then, is life insurance for Bush. But I digress.)

Nixon routinely joked that Agnew was his insurance against impeachment. It's not a bad strategy-"You think I'm bad? Check out that guy"

Posted by: Matt F | Sep 11, 2005 5:56:24 PM

"They'll never assassinate you, Charles, to put me on the throne" - supposedly said by the immensely unpopular Duke of York (later James II and VII) to his older brother, the rather more popular Charles II.


Of course the counterargument is that if you cut the head off one tyrant, his successor, although he may be equally evil, will at least be a bit more cautious.

Posted by: ajay | Sep 12, 2005 5:45:46 AM

How can anyone believe that the effort to impeach Bill Clinton backfired on the Republicans. Clinton’s era was one of peace and prosperity. Gore was a man of national stature; Bush was a moronic sock puppet manipulated by Karl Rove. The campaign to restore dignity and integrity to the office of the president resonated only because of the smear that was the integral part of the impeachment effort. It caused Gore to distance himself from Clinton, a mistake that cost him the election. (I guess I should say set the stage for Bush’s it appointment by the Supreme Court.) Bob Barr was reelected in 2000, and Henry Hyde continue to serve until he retired this year. Except for 1998, Republicans have continued to increase majorities in Congress.

It is not the war of aggression that justifies impeachment, but the lies that deceived the American people and cowered Democrats in Congress. If we can get little blood in the water, perhaps the minnows in the mainstream media will find some teeth. A few Democrats might even dicsover a spine. Put the bastards on defense, and there will be ample opportunity to highlight the kleptocracy, putting the safety of the American people in the hands of political hacks, and the inability to govern.

While it is true that Dick Cheney is more vile than Bush, try to imagine him accomplishing anything in the unlikely event that fortune smiled to impeach Bush. If Gore was diminished by the attack on Clinton, and I think he was, it is safe to assume that Cheney would be rendered harmless.

Impeach the bastards.

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Posted by: apply for a master card | Nov 29, 2006 4:17:58 AM

Chantix, Chantix, Chantix. Why so popular? The answer to this often asked question is that Chantix directly works on the nicotine receptor brain cells and induces the same feeling as one does while smoking. Not to mention the care it takes in doing away with the nicotine withdrawal symptoms. Now tell me, why will it not be popular?

Posted by: chantix | Sep 20, 2007 11:45:30 PM

nelbar: It has always been my position that Uncle Sam is the one dictating the policies and decisions of the Philippines. No RP President could have been elected without Uncle Sam’ s blessing. Perhaps with the exception of Erap whom America disliked. Erap’ s winning margin was so huge that it was very difficult for the US and Erap’ s enemies to manipulate and change. There were attempts but failed. Cardinal Sin and the Civil Society group were at Erap’ s neck from the very beginning. But, Erap’ s popularity...

Posted by: Making Affiliate Money | Apr 7, 2008 10:38:51 PM

I am pregnant and employed with a small company in New Jersey. My company does not have Short Term Disability insurance. I read recently that NJ is one of 5 states that requires this insurance by law. Does that law apply to all companies, or only companies of a certain size? Am I out of luck? Should I buy my own insurance? Thanks for any advice!

Posted by: online insurance | Jun 1, 2008 6:06:56 AM

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