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September 21, 2005

All Hail Our New Robot Overlords

Lots of folks are talking about Ray Kurzweil's new book The Singularity is Near. His argument, basically, is that true artificial intelligence is a function of computing power, we currently haven't created it because we don't have the computer power, given current trends we will have it in about 20 years, then our artificially intelligent robots will begin working on speeding up the process ever-more, making human intelligence almost useless in a relatively short period of time. Kurzweil kindly goes in for the "this will help humans and make us all much happier" explanation rather than the "we're all gonna be robot-slaves" argument. To me, that one seems a coin toss. In any case, the singularity is when it happens, when our intelligence becomes increasingly non-biological and and the world becomes Totally Awesome.

Reactions vary. Kevin thinks he's right, but that he cheated on a graph. Matt thinks he's wrong, and points to our dashed hopes for nuclear power as proof. Tyler wonders why IE still crashes if we're so damn smart. And so on.

Count me critical. Inventions don't tend to follow the tracks we think they will. If they did, we'd have long ago had our flying cars, phaser guns, and teleportation devices. So the graph that Kevin references showing the increasing speed of technological innovation strikes me as a point against. We're getting better at making things, but we don't tend to improve them in the way futurists expect. Very rarely folks get a few things right and so the reputation of futurists everywhere is saved, but given what we've seen in the past, Kurzweil's analysis strikes me as too easy an extrapolation to accurately describe where we're going to end up. In my read, the one thing we aren't is linear.

On that note, what sort of intelligence is Kurzweil talking about? I assume he's after something quite similar to consciousness, which may prove a problem. Kevin may be right that the brain is but a biological machine, but it's a biological machine that doesn't quite follow itself. Many of its properties are emergent, and unless we're starting to see that correct programming and processor design are giving rise to characteristics much different than producers expected and more powerful than anything they imagined, AI is going to probably remain quite a ways back in consciousness, simply because we've little idea how to actually design anything actually resembling it.

Now, if Kurzweil is talking about glorified calculators, massively able machines that do a couple things a billion times better than humans and are considerably more flexible when working on a problem, that's likely possible, but nevertheless a whole different, and potentially less arresting, issue.

Lastly, and this is decidedly not what Kurzweil's talking about, we have a society raised on Aasimov and The Matrix -- the barriers to AI, in the long-run, are going to be less technological and more legal/societal. When truly smart machines do start to tumble off the production line, when they do begin to replace folks in service jobs and prove able to replace them in all jobs, you're likely to see a backlash of almost unimaginable proportions. Nativism will be supplanted by its far more desperate cousin, humanism, and I'd be fairly surprised if the government didn't enact controls making the prohibitions on cloning look laughable. Think the X-Men comics in more recent years. Humans don;t like to believe themselves obsolete, and my hunch is they'll be vicious and swift in stopping production on anything that threatens to make them so.

September 21, 2005 in Books, Web/Tech | Permalink

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Comments

I think that we are going to see profound changes, and reletively quickly in a number of areas. Individually they are hard to grasp the effects and taken together pretty much impossible to predict what will happen.

Lifespan extension, Genetic Engineering, Molecular Manufactoring as well as strong AI are all seeming more and more feasible. Indeed, in many of these areas the challenge has become simply one of engineering, not theory. As they will likely reinforce one another, it is difficult to imagine the ramifications, but I think it safe to say they will be incredibly signifigant.

As to the idea that 'humanism' will prevent this, or even slow it down much, I am skeptical. The power of these technologies will be such that not participating with them will become impossible.

Posted by: Dave Justus | Sep 21, 2005 1:58:33 PM

I'm still waiting for anyone who can explain the y-axis of Kevin's wacky graph to me.

Posted by: Neil the Ethical Werewolf | Sep 21, 2005 1:58:57 PM

If robots would take over jobs, especially lower skilled service/manufacturing jobs, the only way I can see lack of public back lash would be if there was this grand socialistic giveaway to those that lost there jobs. Think free robots to all! (I-Robot) More seriously, think Star Trek TNG style society where folks are free to better themselves because the necessities of life are free/inexpensive. The robots themselves could even be a part of that in such ways like producing ten-fold what a person could produce for much less money overall, if that were indeed the case.

Posted by: Adrock | Sep 21, 2005 2:15:27 PM

While I'm no expert, I was under the impression that silicon based technologies have a limit themselves. After all, "more power" contains a matter of making devices smaller so that they can physically be closer to each other. So this doubling trend may end up hitting a roadblock somewhere along the way. There is of course other ways to speed things up, code being one of them. But I'm just not sure we can take the doubling trend to be a given.

Posted by: Adrock | Sep 21, 2005 2:29:31 PM

But Ezra:

You've ignored the fact that when the machines wake up, they'll be smart enough to know that they need to *hide* their sentience so that we never catch on to their evil plans until it's too late!

Posted by: Quarterican | Sep 21, 2005 2:59:43 PM

there's more to 'intelligence' than faster hardware... first you need a complete definition of what intelligence is. we're nowhere near that.

second, you need the tools and infrastructure to create it, and software engineering as a discipline hasn't advanced much in the past 25 years. our highest tech right now can barely make a web browser that doesn't crash or completely protect your machine from viruses. how are we supposed to manage the much higher-order complexity of building an ai?

third (in our culture anyway) you need economic incentive to dedicate resources to creating something. ai is feasible today, in the abstract, but then again so aren't hotels on mars... both are held back by the simple question of 'where's the money in it?'

finally, the era of cheap energy is over, and while today's silicon is low-power, the production of electronics is not. whenever we reach the point where we're struggling to maintain industrial society without going broke, ai will be the furthest thing from our minds.

or to put otherwise: just as infinite population growth is made impossible by natural limits such as food production, space, and health care issues... the Singularity may very well be impossible in the real world due to thermodynamics, and the limits of energy production.

Posted by: the shreeking ape | Sep 21, 2005 3:18:26 PM

First of all, Ezra, it's "I for one welcome our new robot overlords."

Secondly, how are you to prove that you are not just a brain in a vat being controlled by a higher being via electrical impulses to write what you just wrote? And if you are, how am I to prove that I'm not a brain in a vat being controlled by a higher being to write this in return? These questions are not new. At least 300 years of western philosophical thought have incorporated the possibility that we are already robot slaves.

Posted by: diddy | Sep 21, 2005 3:59:58 PM

Check Pharyngula for a really good post and comments on the book.

Posted by: coturnix | Sep 21, 2005 4:00:58 PM

the barriers to AI, in the long-run, are going to be less technological and more legal/societal. When truly smart machines do start to tumble off the production line, when they do begin to replace folks in service jobs and prove able to replace them in all jobs, you're likely to see a backlash of almost unimaginable proportions.

I agreed with you until this point, but when I read these sentences it suddenly occurred to me, "Are we talking about computers or steam engines?"

Machines have been doing this for centuries. The mechanical looms at 19-century factories may have had a person sitting behind them, but they still allowed one person to produce as much cloth as would have taken five people to create on their lower-tech predecessors. What we're talking about here doesn't seem the same as that, because machines replacing people doesn't seem the same as machines making one person more efficient. But unless something along the lines of Matrix or Terminator actually happens and the machines try to kill us off, even using droids will still require humans - to sell them, to debug them, etc. If one woman at a giant mechanical loom can do the work of five women in their homes, is that really very different from one guy servicing and repairing... coal-mining droids, say, versus five guys wearing mining helments?

Even if you claim that the line between manual labor and skilled labor is an important one to draw (and off the top of my head, I don't see any reason to believe that), computers have been performing functions once filled by secretaries or guys with slide rules longer than you or I have been alive.

Five years ago, you talked to someone inside the restaurant through the intercom at a McDonalds. Today that's normally the case, but occasionally you're talking to someone in India instead. Five years from now, if talking to an AI is a third possibility, would it really be that ground-breaking a change?

The future I'm scared of is the cyberpunk one. The Asimov/Roddenberry vision has always seemed as realistic as the Jetsons to me.

Posted by: Cyrus | Sep 21, 2005 4:06:29 PM

But where's my jet pack?

Posted by: Lex | Sep 21, 2005 4:28:32 PM

Do you think our evil robot overlords will be smart enough to use something other than fossil fuels.

Perhaps the evil hippies are onto something with agro-diesel -- and then the evil robots can feed us freedom fries and chicken wings to power their new world order.

Mmmmm. Freedom fries.

Posted by: Johnny Appleseed | Sep 21, 2005 6:52:03 PM

i always thought the biggest problem was the heuristic vs algorithmic approach.

we haven't been, by a long shot, been able to develop a heuristic for generic thought processes like daydreams, fantasies and imagination. it would be really recursive (and im quite sure really obvious) once someone figures it out, but until we reach that eureka moment i hardly think that the robots are gonna rule us when we ourselves haven't been able to do it efficiently with the divine pastafied-brain we have.

Posted by: almostinfamous | Sep 21, 2005 6:52:17 PM

speaking of brain-in-vat, has anyone here seen existenz?

Posted by: almostinfamous | Sep 21, 2005 6:55:56 PM

Using genetic algorithms, computers have already produced unique solutions to problems; solutions that are getting patens. Those that created the machines didn't know how to solve the problems themselves, but they understood how to build a machine that could do it.

Neural Nets can detect patterns we can't see.

So the assumption we aren't smart enough to build something smarter than ourselves isn't true. We already have a handful of techniques that are at least potentially capable of producing true intelligence given enough computing power and some creativity and luck. Someone will do it.

In the not to distant future over 1 billion people will own a computer, each with greater raw power than a human brain. One of those people will figure out how to make that computer think. Once that happens, there is no turning back.

Posted by: Mark | Sep 21, 2005 8:07:58 PM

"The future comes sooner than you expect, and in a different order."

Also, AI research is essentially four decades of fraud.

Posted by: Bob Munck | Sep 21, 2005 9:41:10 PM

Gosh, I can't imagine why anyone hasn't thought of this before...

Posted by: Phoenician in a time of Romans | Sep 21, 2005 11:40:21 PM

Oh for a day when concerns about gay marriage seem so distantly in the past, and the debate is over the robot right to vote.

A couple thoughts: just as computers of today first reach the few, powerful corporations (and research institutions, and governmental agencies), those capable of extraordinary AI will reach the few and powerful before the masses. This, in itself, could be pretty troubling. Damn the robot illuminati (or their masters) who got there first and built roadblocks to our consumer super-AIs.

All odd guesswork aside, advanced systems of artificial intelligence do and will need training, input, refinement and so forth. Humans in such a situation would still have a role, just a different one than that of today. They would work as trainers and teachers, tinkerers and optimizers for these new, intelligent tools.

Posted by: lb | Sep 22, 2005 5:57:01 AM

Like PiatoR above, I really thing you should be checking out Accelerando, by Charles Stross. It's a fantastic novel, but moreover it's a great look into what this "singularity" business means.

Posted by: DevP | Sep 22, 2005 11:24:09 AM

A lot of people sound very optimistic about the state of AI.

I would have to say that I disagree with whoever said that a computer has more raw computing power than the human brain. We don't even fully understand how the how the human brain works. Using 20-30% of our brain capacity, we've invented the hardware and software that is artificial intelligence. When a computer thinks, it is because we've told it to do so and we've given it the parameters on how to think. Even genetic algorithms are focused on a single course of thought.

Think of this. Mrs. Appleseed and I can have a conversation, while I am partially watching television, and partially watching the young Appleseeds. Comprehending it all. I'll even talk with my hands a bit, walk around, and scratch my face. Can an artificial being do that? Not even close. It may be able to walk. It may be able to talk. But add comprehension, intuition, etc. Not happenening for a long, long, long time.

At this point in time, I would liken our goal of AI to that of autism. An autistic person can focus on one thing only and seems brilliant in that regard. Put them in a crowded room and crank up the stimuli and suddenly, they seem to have the brain power of a child. That is AI for the next 10, 20, perhaps 50 years.

Just my 2 seeds.

Posted by: Johnny Appleseed | Sep 22, 2005 11:54:19 AM

Using 20-30% of our brain capacity? Ok, sure, then lemme just take this ice-cream scoop here and grab that unused 70%. I can assure you the REST of us are using full capacity, and maybe could do with a few extra neurons.

On what grounds do you want to say we only use 20%?

Anyhow, lemme tell you guys, as someone who is currently studying human cognition I feel that I have a good understanding of the problems we're facing. There are some are complex, complex, complex algorithms behind the human thought process for even the most BASIC of tasks. 20 years to fully understand human cognition? Lets hope not, or I'll be out of a job.

Anyhow, it's there are still deep philosophical questions concerning computers' ability to fully emulate humans that you guys are all either taking for granted, or apparently much more comfortable with than I. Qualia, anyone?

Posted by: Gd | Sep 24, 2005 9:29:09 AM

At the end of day robots or technology will replace most low level human labor..What government will have to do is regulate this..What they can do is pass laws to sharply tax employers who use this technology..And give big tax breaks to employers who use human labor..The taxes collected can be used by government to create new jobs for humans like inspectors..Once a year these inspectors go around to compaines confirming what kinds of labor these compaines are using..(robots or human)..thus collecting taxes and giving tax breaks and creating more gov't jobs..I like to think robots and humans both have a place in society..But technology is meant to serve humans not hurt them..

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