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August 22, 2005
The Incredible Shrinking President
Bush has fallen below 40% in the latest ARG poll, tumbling all the way down to the mid-30's. As Garance says, that likely means we've reached a sort of tipping point, with most everyone but hard Republicans fed up and finished with our hapless chief executive. Was it Sheehan? Was it Iraq? My guess, actually, is that it's his vacation. If the guy can't be bothered to remain at work while his various initiatives explode around us, he doesn't deserve our support. For comparison, it's interesting to note that Clinton's second-term approval ratings never dropped below 40%. Not once.
None of this, of course, matters very much electorally. George W. Bush will not be running for President in 2008, and those who fight to succeed him will, to varying degrees, attempt to distance themselves from his legacy in order to carve out an independent image. What does matter is that Bush's plummeting approval ratings will force his successors to flee very far indeed, which may either leave to a true conservative insurgency (Calling Newt Gingrich) or a swing towards moderate Republicanism. Moreover, the worse George polls, the lamer he gets, and the less likely his legislative initiatives become. That's an important shift because, with everything on the foreign front failing, expect tax reform to get rolled out sooner or later.
August 22, 2005 in Polls | Permalink
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Comments
My guess is that sharply rising gasoline prices have more and more people upset with Bush's handling of the country. It isn't the only issue at work of course, but it's one that hits practically everybody right where they live.
Posted by: David W. | Aug 22, 2005 1:46:24 PM
Are there any details around yet about this so-called Five Day Tour for Chimpy to round up support for the war? Is it going to be another bunch of set piece rallys with screened audiences, a la the Social Security rallies?
Posted by: sprocket | Aug 22, 2005 1:59:17 PM
I'm with David, above. Don't forget about the gas prices. That's what a lot of folks are talking about that I know -- people don't talk about Iraq b/c of the controversial nature (bringing it up w/someone you don't know can give you an unpredictable response), but everyone is talking about gas prices.
And, Ezra, the thing that shocks me about the poll is what's missing from a 2nd term swoon: the economy is okay right now and we haven't seen the Inevitable All-Consuming Scandal we have come to expect from second terms. This isn't the floor for Bush -- it might go lower.
A quick thing to watch: at what point does the GOP actively avoid everything they've talked about for the last four years (economy, Iraq, etc...) and focus on the immigration issue going into the 06' midterms. It won't work -- the surest sign we'll see is when we see Reps. work out deals with the WH for the Pres not to make very public appearances in districts.
Posted by: Chris R | Aug 22, 2005 2:04:47 PM
Look at the internals: Bush's unpopularity is right where it's always been, among Independents and Democrats. Republicans (to the tune of 77%-18%) still don't feel like Bush is doing a bad job as President, they think the economy's hunky-dory and just going to get hunky-dorier, and so on. Republicans aren't going to be on the look out for an insurgent, Kennedy-against-Carter, McCarthy-against-Johnson type candidate, because they don't see a problem. It's just everybody else who does.
Posted by: S. Tarzan | Aug 22, 2005 2:16:16 PM
I can't wait to see the poll impact when it sinks in to the country that we have created in Iraq another Iranian theocracy, with clerics on the Iraqi Supreme Court passing on laws - just as in Iran - and women subject to Sharia laws (in a least the Shia areas) in family disputes (or more).
Will that 77% approval for Bush among Repubs get tested down into the 60% range, and among which Repub. sub-groups?
There is not much hint of the Congressional Repub. ranks being split yet on key votes, even though Bush's poll numbers have been down for a number of months, thus making clear the numbers aren't a temporary statistical anomaly or short-term dip. When will DeLay and Frist no longer be able to get strict party-line votes for key issues?
At what point do gas prices for those SUV loving, exurban and suburban Repubs that commute to everything begin to affect their Bush-loving ways? $3 a gallon?
Posted by: JimPortlandOR | Aug 22, 2005 2:30:03 PM
Slow news day, again?
Posted by: Fred Jones | Aug 22, 2005 2:57:09 PM
I was talking to my mom on Saturday. She lives in a Republican strong hold, a small, rural farming county in eastern Iowa. I asked her what the county Republicans were saying and she told me they are upset at Bush. This has, apparently, been building over the last few weeks. I asked what she thought was the cause gas prices, 1900 dead American soldiers, Cindy Sheehan, etc. Her feeling was the cost of Iraq, all of it human and monetary, and Cindy Sheehan's protest "doesn't hurt". She also said they know they were lied to about Iraq and the reasons to go their in the first place.
I think this is rather amazing and encouraging.
Posted by: evilchemistry | Aug 22, 2005 3:36:02 PM
I must remind you that the importance of winning the presidency was the Supreme Court. Even if Bush gets worse ratings, he will still be in charge of appointing the nominees. There is certain to be at least one more and maybe two, God willing.
The presidency comes and goes, but young conservative justices are there for a very long time.
Posted by: Fred Jones | Aug 22, 2005 3:50:29 PM
None of this, of course, matters very much electorally.
I think it does matter for an important lil' election known as the '06 midterms!
Posted by: Lavoisier1794 | Aug 22, 2005 4:20:09 PM
Another thing that is acting as a damper on Bush's popularity is the waning of the housing boom, as real wages have not risen nearly as much housing prices have in recent years. Of course, as the housing bubble cools and evaporates home prices will go down, but then so will the equity of those who bought houses in recent years using financial instruments like adjustable-rate mortgages, interest-only mortgages, and 40-year mortgages. By the fall of 2006, the question "are you better off than you were two years ago?" may be on a majority of voter's lips.
Posted by: David W. | Aug 22, 2005 4:47:00 PM
The ARG poll has always leaned Dem. His true approval rating is probably between 39 and 43. Still, that's pretty bad.
I think it is a combination of Sheehan, the vacation, the laying low of the GOP communications apparatus, the drop in Real Discretionary Income caused by high gas prices and housing inflation, and a sense of a lack of planning. If the Dems can come up with something resembling a coherent plan in Iraq and get out in front of whatever GOP plan comes up that will be enough to do the trick.
Posted by: Nick Beaudrot | Aug 22, 2005 5:07:49 PM
You are mistaken, Ezra. Tax reform implies some sort of positive change. I do agree that a tax cut proposal seems likely.
Posted by: Eric | Aug 22, 2005 5:11:48 PM
Eric, can you think of anything that Bush amy propose on tax reform that has any benefit for the middle class?
Posted by: David W. | Aug 22, 2005 5:23:24 PM
Eric, can you think of anything that Bush amy propose on tax reform that has any benefit for the middle class?
Posted by: David W. | Aug 22, 2005 5:24:52 PM
Eric: Bush will certainly call it 'tax reform', with sprinkles of words like 'fairness' and 'relief'.
Posted by: NBarnes | Aug 23, 2005 7:33:58 PM
