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August 05, 2005
James Woolsey, Granola Muncher
Check out Josh Bearman's overview of the energy bill, what it means for oil consumption, and where it's leading us. I know, I know, energy bill was so last week, and it's boring besides, and the fight is over, and peak oil stuff makes you antsy but...c'mon. Just give it 5 minutes.
August 5, 2005 | Permalink
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I know, I know, energy bill was so last week, and it's boring besides, and the fight is over, and peak oil stuff makes you antsy but..
Actually mainstream/Middle of the Road liberals like yourself and Kevin Drum are doing your readers a great disservice if you do not write about Peak Oil at least once a week.
Peal Oil up until a couple of months ago when Drum starting writting about it and did the Washington Monthly cover story on Matt Simmons, was the domain of worry warts and the dedicated Peak Oil bloggers. Now Peak Oil is going mainstream. That is great.
However, I think both yourself and Drum were way too hard on James Howard Kunstler. Kunstler is definately cranky but he is not a crank. Among those who believe Peak Oil is around the corner are range of valid opinion that all deserve at least a listen. The optimists like Woolsey, who believe that technologies like nuclear power and hydrated ethanol will limit the impact on our way of living. The moderate pessimists like Kunstler who believe that our suburban car culture will not survive but our society could adjust with real political leadership which is the big question. The extreme pessimist Die-Off crowd believe that we are already 40 years to late to make any meaningfull adjustment that could forestall massive population loss particularly in the third world.
I have been reading everything I can find on Peak Oil and I belive that all three Peak Oil camps have their points. It must be particularly hard being a Californian and having to listen to
Kunstler. But I personally think Kunstler is about right on the Peak Oil debate, we will survive Peak Oil but our global consumerist suburban car culture will not.
Posted by: llamajockey | Aug 5, 2005 5:26:24 PM
Since I'm politically paranoid, Woolsey and Schultz are not guys that I easily want to get in line behind. But it is 'nice' to have them speaking out, although I'm suspicious.
I'm sorry to join the pessimists, but there is zero evidence that even with weekly warnings in liberal blogs and the mainstream media, we are not going to see meaningful research and application of sensible energy policy from the Congress and WH until gas prices get very painfully high and continue at that level or rise further..
How high is enough? $120/barrel oil might do it. $4.00-5.00 a gallon. Gas must really dent living standards hard for the middle and upper classes first.
By then, the mideast oil sheiks will have socked away enough profits to fund anti-west policies and terrorism for a very long time, since oil pricing is based on the last gallon pumped, not production costs, which will rise far less dramatically.
From Brad Delong on the economics:
The cost of production of which oil? There is oil that costs $5 a barrel to extract. There is oil that costs $15 a barrel to extract. There is oil that costs $55 a barrel to extract. And then there are all those places with oil--oil shale, oil sands, et cetera, et cetera--where the oil would cost more than $60 a barrel to extract. The oil futures market is guessing (a) what level of demand for oil there will be in the future, and (b) how much it will cost to pump that last barrel of oil to satisfy that last little bit of demand. But for every barrel other than that last, most expensive barrel there is a wedge (and in many cases an enormous wedge) between the market price and that particular barrel's cost of production. It's an "economic rent."
We are going to continue to pay the rent, and OPEC and others will continue to collect the rent. They can spend it on whatever they want - including some things we will not like at all.
Posted by: JimPortlandOR | Aug 5, 2005 6:59:42 PM
