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June 29, 2005

Arnold Drops

The Field Poll's out (pdf), and it's enough to set even Arnold's steel-rod of a jaw a-quiver. In February 2005, 56% of voters were inclined to reelect Arnold, while only 42% wanted the guy gone. Now 39% want another go on the governator's merry-go-round while 57% want to get off. Amazingly, the news gets worse (for Arnold).

In trial heats with his failr unknown challengers, the politicians all hold leads while the potential stars all fall short. Phil Angelides beats him 46%-42%, up from a 35%-52% obliteration in February. Steve Westly also leads, 44%-40%, up from 33%-52%. Rob Reiner loses to Arnold, 44%-42% and so, unfortunately, does Warren Beatty, 46%-37%. Looks like I misjudged the electorate here. Californians, it would seem, are done with Hollywood. And for that matter, done with Arnold.

Now, it's too early to declare victory. Arnold's going to have a wrecking ball of a campaign machine with a fairly unbelievable amount of cash on-hand, and if he's able to pass the ballot initiative barring unions from making political contributions, Democrats are going to be in trouble, financially. But these aren't bad numbers for him, they're dismal. Who knows? Maybe the rumors will come true and Arnold will bow out after a single term. But, while that'd be nice, I'd much rather see the bookish Angelides beat him, and, at his first press conference, instruct an aide to ask: "Phil! Phil! What is best in life?"

The answer?

"To crush your enemies, to see them driven before you and to hear the lamentation of the women." Watching that come out of Angelides mouth on TV would be the greatest moment of my life.

June 29, 2005 in California | Permalink

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An expert in the Chron agrees with you:

"The public is a bit turned off, or at least a little less interested in bringing an actor or an outsider into office,'' DiCamillo said. "That initial burst of enthusiasm for someone outside the system, someone different, has waned.''

For all the commentary about the Arnold-Angelides "charisma gap" - a worthy topic, since Davis probably could have survived if he had a better personality - it appears Angelides' boring good-government persona is a big asset. Damn, that's ironic. I can imagine Dems gaining some ground with a "A governor, for a change" type campaign.

Posted by: Dave Weigel | Jun 29, 2005 1:12:55 PM

Wouldn't banning union contributions be unconstitutional, since the Supremes think donations are political speech?

Posted by: Ginger Yellow | Jun 29, 2005 1:22:30 PM

can't ban 'em, but you can apparently make every union member sign something allowing -- or denying -- each individual expenditure, which amounts to the same thing. You know, just like corporations are forced to get shareholder permission for each political dollar they spend. Oh wait, they're not...

Posted by: Ezra | Jun 29, 2005 1:46:59 PM

Yeah actually, I'd be okay with getting the individual permission of union members if we extended it to corporations too.

Ezra, what ever happened to you draft Warren movement?

Posted by: Abby | Jun 29, 2005 2:09:56 PM

www.draftwarren.com, though after this poll, I'd be shocked to see him join.

Posted by: Ezra | Jun 29, 2005 2:19:38 PM

Wow. I always figured that Arnold would keep the low approval ratings, but still beat every democrat not named "Dianne Feinstein" or "Gavin Newsom" in a head-to-head. But apparently you can be the state treasurer and take on a celebrity. In california no less. Who knew!

Posted by: Nick Beaudrot | Jun 29, 2005 2:51:57 PM

We'll see. To me it's interesting that Beatty hasn't declared a run and hasn't articulated positions on many things, yet he still gets a fairly positive response. He's an unknown among unknowns (but he's a known unknown unknown).

This is good news on all fronts--I'm fairly confident about the abilities of all the campaigns to capitalize on their strengths, but it's good that they start with a lead.

Posted by: Dan K. | Jun 29, 2005 8:48:35 PM

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Posted by: peter.w | Sep 16, 2007 9:03:53 PM

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