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May 26, 2005
Think Forward
Kenny Baer's got a piece over at TNR raising the alarm over erosion in the Jewish vote. According to exit polls, there really isn't any erosion in the Jewish vote, but as Baer convincingly argues, that may not actually be true. In any case, it doesn't matter.
At this point, it's really not about keeping the old band together. The sad fact is that the Democratic party is, if current demographic and voting patterns hold, marching straight towards obsolescence. Check out this chart of projected changes in the electoral college due to population growth. The South is growing. The Northeast is shrinking. In 2004, we got 252 electoral votes to the Republican's 286. In 2012, the same state breakdown would give them 290 votes, and us 248. 2024 would would make it 299 to 239, and 2032 would give us 235 electoral votes to their 303.
The trends, one might safely say, are not in our favor.
Fighting to retain Jews in New York, which is what Baer's talking about, isn't really worth our time. We're not losing New York, and working to codify our dominance there doesn't make so much sense, as NY is shrinking. We will need to gain Hispanics so we can mount challenges in Western states like Arizona and Texas (yes, Texas). We will need to figure out how to win some Southern states, like North Carolina and Georgia. But more to the point, we're going to have to learn to be competitive where we aren't, in places like Arizona, Texas, Florida. And for that reason, defensive electoral strategies -- how do we keep the Jews? Are we losing the Blacks!? -- won't work, we're going to have to make a more broadly appealing party because, very very soon, holding our constituencies and gaining a handful more votes won't bring us anywhere near victory.
The good news is that no electoral relationship is immutable. Here in California, we gave you Nixon and Reagan (sorry about that). There in Texas, they gave us Sam Rayburn and Lyndon Johnson. Arizona's got a single female governor along with a clean elections act and Florida is close anyway. So Republican strongholds will change, as will bastions of Democratic strength. But to make them change in our favor, we need to be thinking forward about how to craft new electoral alliances and win over new constituencies, not how to protect our shrinking, sub-50% coalition.
May 26, 2005 in Electoral Politics | Permalink
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Comments
A big factor in this migration is, are people moving into urban or rural areas of these states? If it is the urban areas that are growing, then the trends will ultimately reap benefits for the Democrats. Or at the least, red states become more swingin' purple and good democratic candidates should be able to compete.
Posted by: shmegecky | May 26, 2005 1:30:39 PM
Huh -- interesting point. But my feeling is that the trends is suburban, exurban, towards McMansion's and swimming pools.
Posted by: Ezra | May 26, 2005 1:43:23 PM
History shows that it's dangerous to extrapolate state-by-state arguments out beyond a few years, much less to 2020 and beyond. Not too long ago, California was solid GOP and West Virginia was solid Dem.
The vast numbers of people moving to Arizona, Texas, and Florida in coming decades are not the same as the people already living and voting in those places.
Posted by: P.M.Bryant | May 26, 2005 2:11:43 PM
I spoke too soon, since on re-reading your post I see you made a simiar point, and we basically agree about strategy: "we need to be thinking forward about how to craft new electoral alliances and win over new constituencies, not how to protect our shrinking, sub-50% coalition."
Posted by: P.M.Bryant | May 26, 2005 2:13:56 PM
Massachusetts was solid Republican from the time of Lincoln until the mid 20th century.
Projected census data doesn't tell us much of anything about future political leanings.
Pigs and Fishes.
Posted by: the shreeking ape | May 26, 2005 2:20:49 PM
NY Jews have $$$$.
Posted by: praktike | May 26, 2005 2:23:55 PM
According to exit polls, there really isn't any erosion in the Jewish vote, but as Baer convincingly argues, that may not actually be true.
I didn't find his arguments very convincing on that front.
In any case, it doesn't matter.
On that, I agree with you, and with the rest of your post.
Posted by: Haggai | May 26, 2005 2:45:14 PM
Looks like we'll have to turn a few of those red states blue. A good-ole-fashioned left-wing populism seemed work well for Huey Long, though he certainly went too far with the demogogy.
I'm also guessing that just a few of those folks who are migrating to warmer climes might -- just might -- be liberals. We'll see.
Poverty and squalor also go a long way toward convincing people that they're being screwed by those in power. The longer the Rethugs have the reins, the more obvious becomes their disdain for the poor.
Posted by: urizon | May 26, 2005 2:47:38 PM
As has been correctly noted, Democrat and Republican states have changed back and forth frequently. It is important to note though that for the most part, conservative states have remained conservative and liberal states have remained liberal. The parties both used to have liberal and conservative wings to them. That isn't the case so much any more.
West Virginia has been Democrat and it has been Republican. It has never been liberal.
These Demographics should be disturbing for any liberals out there.
I think though, that while what Ezra says on strategy is correct, you should pay attention to trends amoung your solid backing groups. If Jews and Blacks begin leaving the party, that is a pretty strong sign that your overall message isn't resonating with people that it probably should be, and who are generally inclined to recieve that message in the most favorable light to start with.
Posted by: Dave Justus | May 26, 2005 3:06:11 PM
Can someone please explain to me, in short sentences, why we need to recapture the South? We need 270 electoral votes. How we get there matters not at all. It looks, from the vote splits, like we have a much better chance of convincing non-Southern states to come with us (NV, NM, CO, IA, and OH come to mind) than of convincing Southern states to come with us. If glosses on Woolridge and Micklethwait's book are correct, the way they see of averting a long-term Republican hegemony is to convince people the party is "too southern, too greedy and too contradictory." It looks to me like the last thing we want to do is move toward the Southerners and lose "too southern" as a wedge.
Posted by: SomeCallMeTim | May 26, 2005 3:08:07 PM
Can someone please explain to me, in short sentences, why we need to recapture the South?
We don't. We only have to make the Republicans fight for the south. You're correct that the Democratic party's path to victory cuts through the rocky mountain states and the southwest. Democrats don't need states like TN, LA, and FL to win. They only have to force the Republicans to waste time and energy there... much like the Republicans didn't need the upper midwest to win, they only needed to force kerry to spend time and money in Michigan nad Minnesota so that he had fewer resources available for Ohio.
Posted by: Constantine | May 26, 2005 3:13:14 PM
This whole story is silly. The trend to mcmansions? what, poor and middle class americans are moving up the ladder *in significant numbers* and into mcmansions, and changing their registration to Republican? What planet is that happening on?
D-leaning blue staters and immigrants are moving to red and purple states, and caucasians are diminishing as a percentage of the population, the evangelical population growth lags far behind growth of other demographics.
Somebody explain to me how these confirmed trends are problematic for D's and good for R's.
Posted by: Buford P. Stinkleberry | May 26, 2005 3:37:01 PM
All you need is still Fla. Even in 2032 (when everything else will have changed anyway) you get 235 from current blue states, and Fla will have 27 + 9 = 36 EVs at that time, giving you 271 and a win.
Posted by: SP | May 26, 2005 4:05:02 PM
The analysis is bogus indeed. What are the sources
of population growth in "red" states ? Young
people reaching voting age - skew Democrat;
migration from blue states - skew Democrat;
legal immigration from outside the USA - probably
skews Democrat. So it seems far more likely that
these trends will cause red states to become less
red, and at the margin some of the close states
will turn blue.
For a microcosm of these trends, look at Tom
DeLay's own district in Texas - with a large
immigrant population, it's trending Dem and he's
in serious danger in 2006 (even if he stays out
of legal trouble).
Posted by: Richard Cownie | May 26, 2005 4:10:42 PM
Fighting to retain Jews in New York, which is what Baer's talking about, isn't really worth our time.
The bad press and baggage the homosexuals bring to the Democratic party is hardly worth the few votes they may bring as well.
Posted by: Robert Zimmerman | May 26, 2005 5:17:34 PM
"why we need to recapture the South? We need 270 electoral votes."
This obsession with the Presidency is one of many things that is simply killing the Democratic Party. Keep it up, you will elect Hilary/Clark, and DeLay/Frist will just impeach til they reach Speaker or get somebody they like.
Posted by: bob mcmanus | May 26, 2005 7:27:02 PM
We don't need the South to elect Presidents, but we do need to at least keep the South interesting to elect Congresses, in my opinion. If the South becomes too safe a base, a lot of money gets shipped around the country.
Posted by: Kimmitt | May 26, 2005 9:36:00 PM
The dems need a lot more talk radio in red states
Posted by: jr | May 27, 2005 3:05:19 AM
RZ should worry about the Log Cabin Republicans, they'll get in power one day, then his rectum is in real trouble...........
Posted by: The Dark Avenger | May 27, 2005 3:13:48 PM
RZ should worry about the Log Cabin Republicans, they'll get in power one day, then his rectum is in real trouble...........
The coarseness of pandagon is seeping through like a sieve. It is the squeal of a stick pig who loses election after election after election. Even after a Senator jumps ship to hand power to his party, they cannot hold on to it as the voters shun their party. The affiliation and promotion of sexual deviants hasn't helped you any either. So, keep it up there, spanky and see who laughs last!!
Posted by: Robert Zimmerman | May 27, 2005 8:42:09 PM
You're over here obsessing about the sex organ of one of the participants at pandagon.net., and you're worried about its' corseness seeping through to here, RZ?
LOL!
Posted by: The Dark Avenger | May 28, 2005 8:57:48 AM
RZ thinks it's his place to provoke. Doesn't seem to take it too well when his chain is pulled. Why did you stop ? If you're going blatant on us, might as well let it all hang out (no Bermuda shorts, please)
Posted by: opit | May 29, 2005 12:05:22 AM
Yeah, Bobby whines like a 5-year-old when someone here isn't 'civil' to his little snotty ass.
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