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March 31, 2005

Apologies for Ruining Your Morning

The new Democracy Corps memo just popped into my inbox and, despite the spin, it strikes me as bad news. It's not that Republicans are doing well so much as Democrats are doing really, really badly. And that's not individual Democrats -- Hillary easily beats Jeb (and 11% of Republicans cross lines for her) and Bill stomps all over George. But the party's image stinks. It's past midnight and I lack the energy to work up a full analysis now, but I'll leave you with these two graphs to noodle over; my comments to follow in the morning:

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March 31, 2005 in Polls | Permalink

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» from August J. Pollak - xoverboard.com
Ezra links pessimistically to a Democracy Corps poll indicating the public opinions on Democrats vs. Republicans on specific individual issues. There's too many of relevance to link to here, so just go check it out. That said, I'm not really...
[Read More]

Tracked on Mar 31, 2005 2:10:45 PM

» Ruining the Morning in America from August J. Pollak - xoverboard.com
Ezra links pessimistically to a Democracy Corps poll indicating the public opinions on Democrats vs. Republicans on specific individual issues. There's too many of relevance to link to here, so just go check it out. That said, I'm not really... [Read More]

Tracked on Mar 31, 2005 2:15:14 PM

» Ruining the Morning in America from August J. Pollak - xoverboard.com
Ezra links pessimistically to a Democracy Corps poll indicating the public opinions on Democrats vs. Republicans on specific individual issues. There's too many of relevance to link to here, so just go check it out. That said, I'm not really... [Read More]

Tracked on Mar 31, 2005 2:15:52 PM

Comments

This analysis goes hand-in-hand with the op-ed from Bill Bradley, e.g. the Republican pyramid is so stable at its foundation that it doesn't matter who the president is. When in doubt, the people will vote Republican because they feel that the party beliefs are strong and clear.

It's what Bill Clinton said months ago: people will go for someone who is strong and wrong over someone who is weak and right.

As if to prove it, look at the chart: the Republicans are an average of 10 points ahead on the issues that are associated with them, while the Dems are only 3-4 pt. ahead on the issues associated with them.

People -- read the Bradley article again. And let's get to work.

Posted by: Ara Rubyan | Mar 31, 2005 7:49:48 AM

We're friggin' TIED on "Good for the economy"? How many longest-peacetime-economic-booms-in-history from Democratic presidents do we need?

Posted by: Gary Johnston | Mar 31, 2005 10:32:13 AM

One thing that's always missing in these data sets is "how important are each of these attributes to you." Thus, this data is interesting, but less useful than it could be...

Posted by: Greg Palmer | Mar 31, 2005 10:50:04 AM

Notice that Reps have a THIRTY point lead for "know what they stand for". You may not agree with Bush and company but you have to agree that they have their own beliefs and values.

Contrast that to Bill (my policy is what the polls say is popular) Clinton and John (I voted for it before I voted against it) Kerry.

Posted by: Boethius | Mar 31, 2005 12:11:15 PM

Gary

Clinton inherited an economy in recovery and bequeathed an economy in recession.

Posted by: Boethius | Mar 31, 2005 12:12:46 PM

Ezra

Please ignore ideas such as "Hillary easily beats Jeb".

If name recognition based polls had any relevance then Mario Cuomo would have become President in 1988.

Posted by: Boethius | Mar 31, 2005 12:35:06 PM

Ezra:

I think this snapshot is not particularly helpful given the moment in time.

Shares moral values numbers seem pre-Schiavo travesty.

Long term vision feeds from the SS debate where the GOP is PRETENDING to think longterm.

As for the rest, not much different than before.

I think the situation is shifting and this poll really is just poorly timed to be honest with you.

I'd be very interested in the NEXT poll.

Posted by: Armando | Mar 31, 2005 12:36:29 PM

B -- Bill beats Bush, Hillary beats Jeb. In light of that, what you're saying makes no sense. And don't tell me Bill beats George on name rec...

Armando -- True enough. But I'm not confident that Schiavo created a sea change here. The important thing is that, at some point in time that was very recent, voters did feel this way.

Posted by: Ezra | Mar 31, 2005 12:47:32 PM

What's the deal with these numbers?

"On Your Side" -- even.

"Cares About People Like You" -- 4 point lead.

"For The Middle Class" -- 13 point lead.

Is this just another instance of large numbers of people vastly overestimating there socioeconomic position? Like the "19% believe they are in the top 1%" thing?

Posted by: Thad | Mar 31, 2005 1:26:27 PM

Oh fuck me. "Their," not "there." Jeebus.

Posted by: Thad | Mar 31, 2005 1:28:19 PM

Democrats needed to use Rove tactics. This is how George W. Bush Defended America after being told "Bin Laden Determined to Attack the US". Clip of clearing brush.

This is how George W. Bush rallied America when it was under attack. Clip of "My Pet Goat".

It is more complicated to show how Bush defends seniors with Social Security Reform. The Crisis Moment for SS is 2052 (trust fund runs out), no 2017 (SS surplus turns into deficit), no, 2010 (SS Surplus stops growing). The moment of Crisis for the general fund was in 2001, when the surplus vanished. And after four years of economic growth, there are still deficits as far as the eye can see.

It's easier for any member of congress who expressed support for Bush's privatization plan. He voted for tax cuts for the rich. And wanted to cut your benenfits by 25%. Picture of Senior Citizen handing over all their money to Snidely Whiplash.

The US defeated Imperial Japan, after it attacked Pearl Harbor, in 3 years, 8 months, and two days (VJ Day is Aug 9, right?) Three years, 8 months, and two days from September 11, 2001 would be May 13, 2005. My guess is that Bin Laden will still be at large on that day. Better at National Security? Feh!

Posted by: Owned By Two Cats | Apr 4, 2005 3:14:14 PM

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